Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Broncos
Denver is still struggling to find consistent goal-line opportunities this season, but they are first in running back targets per game. Javonte Williams has been up and down in passing game involvement. Williams' 44% route share in Week 14 is on the higher side for his season but still sagging below optimal numbers for most NFL starters. Samaje Perine siphons plenty of receiving work in the backfield. If Javonte Williams were to miss time in the closing weeks, expect Jaleel McLaughlin to take some empty-calorie carries in the rotation but Perine to have the higher fantasy ceiling.
Bengals
Chase Brown rising to the clear RB2 role is the notable news item for the Cincinnati backfield, paired with Jake Browning keeping the offense viable in Joe Burrow's absence. The Bengals' 24.5 weighted HLO score in Week 14 was more than double their weekly average and easily their best HLO week of the season. Cincinnati has been arguably the best HLO offense in the NFL over the past two weeks. Browning equals easier upside for Joe Mixon and, in case of injury, Chase Brown by the HLO trend.
Cowboys
The Cowboys are up the fifth in HLO on the season and had their best weekly finish in Week 14 since the opening month of the season. Tony Pollard has seen a positive touchdown regression of late, and Rico Dowdle is a league-winning player simmering in case of a Pollard injury on the surging Dallas offense. Their 18.5 weighted HLO score last week was 39% above their weekly average, and they have finished in the top 18 of HLO every week but one this season.
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