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Kyle Shanahan has earned his spot as one of the most innovative offensive coaches in the league. Shanahan’s tenure began as a mess. A 1-10 start on a team led by Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard. Carlos Hyde led the offensive production with 938 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Tight end Garrett Celek led the team with four touchdowns. And Marquise Goodwin and rookie George Kittle led the receiving production with 962 and 515 yards, respectively.
Woof.
But Shanahan did not sit on his hands. A midseason trade for Jimmy Garoppolo ignited a 5-0 run to end the season. The team struggled the following season, finishing 4-12, but by year three, Shanahan had his team in place, and the result was a Super Bowl run. The 49ers have established themselves at the top of the NFL since.
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Texans coach DeMeco Ryans and Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik had a front-row seat to the entire ride.
When a new coaching staff comes in, they have multiple paths. Flexible coaches will work to blend their scheme with their existing talent. Stubborn coaches will try to fit talent into their scheme. But changing a losing culture is different. That is the Texans’ task.
Setting The Tone
If there is one word to describe the Texans’ offseason approach, it is physicality. Brandin Cooks is out. In his stead, the team filled an entire shopping list of talent. Wide receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown. Tight end Dalton Schultz. Running backs Devin Singletary and Mike Boone. Guard Shaq Mason. Quarterback Case Keenum.
Players from winning cultures. And players who crave contact.
The most significant pieces are yet to come. With the second pick in the draft, the Texans will surely select their quarterback of the future. Bryce Young is the current best guess from the latest Footballguys mock draft. The Texans are flush with picks through the draft, holding 11 in total.
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The fundamental aim of 2023 will be developing whichever quarterback the team selects. Woods and Brown are strong run blockers for the position. Keenum is an experienced backup who can help the rookie navigate the rigors of the NFL season. Schultz is the type of sure-handed safety valve to give safe outlet opportunities. And Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary are the makings of a running back stable the offense can rely on.
But for practical purposes, how does it shake out for fantasy football?
Fantasy Impact
The centerpiece in 2023 will likely be Dameon Pierce. His tone-setting run style compliments the offensive build well. Shanahan’s first 49ers team used a dual-headed backfield similar to the Texans' current roster. Pierce in the Hyde role and Singletary complimenting in the Matt Breida role.
| Player | Year | Rushing | Receiving | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush | Yds | TD | Y/A | Y/G | A/G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | ||
| Dameon Pierce | 2022 | 220 | 939 | 4 | 4.3 | 72.2 | 16.9 | 39 | 30 | 165 | 5.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 12.7 | 76.9% |
| Carlos Hyde | 2017 | 240 | 938 | 8 | 3.9 | 58.6 | 15.0 | 88 | 59 | 350 | 5.9 | 0 | 3.7 | 21.9 | 67.0% |
| Devin Singletary | 2022 | 177 | 819 | 5 | 4.6 | 51.2 | 11.1 | 52 | 38 | 280 | 7.4 | 1 | 2.4 | 17.5 | 73.1% |
| Matt Breida | 2017 | 105 | 465 | 2 | 4.4 | 29.1 | 6.6 | 36 | 21 | 180 | 8.6 | 1 | 1.3 | 11.3 | 58.3% |
If these two hold, it will be the best-case scenario for Pierce's dynasty stock. But there is a massive caveat. This setup is the present best-case scenario. For Hyde and Breida's production, no other back topped six rushes on the season. Following this year, the 49ers shifted into their hot-hand approach that frustrated fantasy players for years. The names are known: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman, Alfred Morris, Jerick McKinnon, and Jamycal Hasty—a cavalcade of running backs who rotated opportunities. Breida's 153 attempts in 2018 were the most by a 49er until Elijah Mitchell's 207 in 2021.
The elephant in the room is speed. Pierce and Singletary do not have it. The 49ers' offense jump-started when Mostert ascended, making a record-caliber run to the Super Bowl in 2019, spurred by a 220-yard, four-touchdown performance against Green Bay. Again, the Texans have 11 picks in a draft stocked with speed and running back talent. Devon Achane, Sean Tucker, or Kendre Miller lead rookies who could add the element to the backfield.
The receiving tree makes the backfield look crystal clear.
The current options are Woods, Brown, Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Schultz. Collins and Metchie are holdovers from a prior coaching staff. Both have intriguing aspects; Collins's explosive athleticism has hinted at a high ceiling. Meanwhile, Metchie would carry a natural connection if Young is the selection at quarterback. But the most likely outcome is none of these receivers emerge as more than spot starts.
Before Deebo Samuel's 77-1,405-6 breakout season in 2021, only one 49er had topped 100 targets, 60 receptions, or 802 yards: George Kittle. No one on the team topped five receiving touchdowns between 2018 and 2020. Deebo Samuel is not on this roster, and frankly, none of the current options come close to his ability after the catch.
Dalton Schultz is the only player on the current roster to top any of those numbers since 2020, registering a 104-78-808-8 season in 2021. Schultz is the primary receiver and the only fantasy option to target currently. Carrying a TE11 designation on Underdog, Schultz can exceed that ADP. It is easy to envision a passing offense that flows through Schultz while the receivers serve specific situational roles.
One of the most critical factors in fantasy football is recognizing when the option you want from an offense is none.
Bottom Line
Success for the 2023 Houston Texans will be measured in the development of their rookie quarterback. The team has a blueprint for organizational success built from the time with the 49ers. They will play with a physical edge and focus on protecting the young quarterback. The result is likely an offense to avoid in fantasy football.
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