Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2024:
Tight End
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Why: Fant is one of the best tight end bets in the long-form format of dynasty, especially in tight end-premium formats. Fant was traded from Denver to Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade, and his routes per game immediately waned from 27.6 to 20.6 and are now 19.2 per game in Seattle. The Seahawks' passing game has done Fant no favors with three strong wide receivers and rolling a tight end committee with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Despite changing teams and losing routes, Fant has stayed an efficient player, surpassing 1.35 yards per route run in every NFL season. The best news is Fant is an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason. The hope is, like Evan Engram in recent years, Fant selects his own landing spot to thrive in a prove-it type contract with more of a spotlight role. At his peak in Denver, Fant saw 20-22% targets per route run but dipped to an invisible 12% for Seattle in 2023. Betting on Round 1 tight ends is a sturdy dynasty bet when their value falls. David Njoku is the most recent example who has vaulted to career-best finishes in 2022 and 2023 despite a sluggish career start. Fant offers massive potential from the TE30+ price point entering the offseason, especially in premium formats.
A few December dynasty trades of note for Fant include:
- Fant for 2024 3rd, 2025 4th (2.0 PPR for TE)
- Fant, 2024 4th for Marcus Mariota (2.0 PPR for TE)
- Fant, 2024 4th for Ezekiel Elliott (1.5 PPR for TE)
- Fant, Mac Jones, Michael Thomas for Odell Beckham Jr, Gerald Everett, 2024 4th (1.5 PPR for TE)
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