The New Reality No.214: Lessons Learned, 2024 Strategy

Photo: Joe Nicholson, USA Today Sports

With just one week left in the fantasy season, most are shifting their focus back to the NFL and away from their redraft teams in the closing weeks of the season. For dynasty GMs, it is time to get back to business - improving their roster through trades, rookie draft strategy, and proper player valuations for next season and beyond. Here are some lessons learned from 2023 and strategies for 2024:

2023 LESSONS

CONTEND UNTIL ELIMINATED

One of the bigger mistakes by dynasty GMs is throwing in the towel too early. Some lose in September and are already looking for the exit on the season. Others double-down on not contending in the offseason, viewing being stuck in the middle of the standings as the worst potential outcome and avoiding it even at the expense of contending seasons.

My take: Contend until you are officially eliminated. This is a very NFL-type take. Two games to play and need two wins? Try to win the first one and go from there. Need some wins and some help with a month to go? Take it week by week. Do things look rough in July? Wait until October to assess things, minimum.

The best team in a dynasty league does not always win the title. Fellow Footballguys staffer Adam Harstad has broken down the math of winning a title in a variety of circumstances in previous articles. In short, the 'field' has a better chance than any singular team, even once the playoffs start.

In a previous installment, I outlined a 2021 example of a team overcoming the categorical slow start to contend and finish in the money:

"To include one 2021 glaring example of not throwing in the towel from my own dynasty portfolio, one of my weakest teams is in the championship game this week. This team finished 7-7 with a tepid 60% all-play record. I needed a win in the final week to scrape into the postseason. After 10 weeks, I was 3-7. After Week 6, I was 1-5 and 0-4 after the opening month. These are woeful season starts. It is also easy (or easier) to throw in the towel in a devy league (with Superflex and 2TE with premium scoring dynamics) as the trade options are vast to acquire future picks or devy players in exchange for current production.

Instead, I held firm with Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger as notable quarterbacks; James Conner and Alexander Mattison provided timely starts with point-per-carry for the stretch run. Mike Evans and Amari Cooper did the same as I rose in the standings. Having a strong corps of tight ends had a major impact as well, with Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert, plus Zach Ertz, providing a punch at arguably the most important position in the format.

Both weeks of the playoffs, I had the highest score, including taking down the top seed in Week 16. Will I win against the No.2 seed this week? Only time will tell. While blowout outcomes happen all the time in fantasy football (most matchups are not overly close)."

Seek Elite

One of the themes Jordan McNamara and I discuss regularly is seeking elite results. This is on the micro-level of players, profiles, lineup setting, and the waiver wire. However, it also applies to your dynasty portfolio. More to come on this topic in future installments, but research into my own results has unearthed a huge edge for teams with a bye week in the dynasty postseason in the semifinal round. There is a substantial edge by merely avoiding playing in Week 15, as any head-to-head matchup is an opportunity to lose, regardless of the opponent. However, my results also show a significant edge to the bye week teams in the Week 16 matchup as well. Picture the first and second seeds in a dynasty playoff bracket. They were better than the rest of the league for more than three months to earn the bye. It is likely they are still decently (or more) better once the win-or-go-home matchup in December's postseason comes around. In short, the bye teams have a double benefit of avoiding a matchup in Week 15, plus they are hearty favorites most of the time in Week 16. Add those two factors together, and shooting for a bye should be the primary focus for our dynasty teams, as emerging through two rounds as a wildcard team to get to the finals is a low-probability play. As a wildcard team, you are likely somewhere in the 50/50 to 60/40 range of outcomes in Week 15. If you win, you are likely 40% at best, and more likely a deeper underdog than that. Compare that to sitting on the sideline with a bye in Week 15 and being a strong favorite in Week 16. These are divergent pathways and probabilties to a title and/or strong prize money ROI.