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This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
The Minnesota defense has played much better of late, but the secondary continues to struggle. They are currently allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and continue to blitz at a high rate, leaving their perimeter corners on an island. Akayleb Evans hurt his ankle last week and is questionable coming into the weekend. It will be a combination of Andrew Booth Jr and Blackmon on Sutton. Look for Russell Wilson to try to get the ball out quickly to Sutton and let him run. Blackmon is currently allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Look for the high volume for Sutton to continue this week.
There is nothing but uncertainty for the Giants at cornerback this week. Jackson missed week 10 with a concussion and could be out again. Even when fully healthy, the Giants currently allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and are being heavily targeted. Jackson has been torched to the tune of 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 22% of the time. Deonte Banks also allows 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap on the other side. McLaurin should feast this week against the Giants.
Tampa Bay has suffered a rash of injuries in the secondary that has extended into this week, and it is a big reason why they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Carlton Davis III has missed three weeks, including week 10, and has been sorely missed. Dean has had to try to hold things down on his own, and it has not gone well. San Francisco will be at full strength in their receiver group and Tampa Bay will have to find a way to slow both Aiyuk and a healthy Deebo Samuel. Dean is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Look for Aiyuk to get favorable matchups for the majority of the game.
Seattle has been hit or miss when it comes to their receiver group due to regression from Geno Smith. That could change this week for Lockett as he gets a prime matchup against Shelley on the outside. Shelley is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per overage snap and is being picked on 29% of the time. DK Metcalf should see more of Ahkello Witherspoon on the other side but is prone to move all over the field. Upgrade both Seattle receivers this week in what could be a pivotal divisional matchup.
Even with the return of Nico Collins, Dell should continue his tear with a prime matchup against Wilson on the outside. Dell has seen 25 targets over the past 2 weeks and has become a favorite weapon of C.J. Stroud. Wilson is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. Arizona ranks 30th against the run and that could lead Houston to go run-heavy, but Dell should still be heavily targeted when they do throw the ball.
The big storyline will be A.J. Brown with L'Jarius Sneed in shadow coverage, but that leaves Watson to contend with Smith on the other side. Watson is currently allowing 0.58 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. Dallas Goedert is also out with an injury, which should allow even more targets for Smith with Julio Jones not fully up to speed. The Eagles are going to air it out against this Kansas City defense and Smith is poised to have the biggest game of any Philadelphia receiver.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs. NYJ)
It feels like it goes without saying at this point, but Kincaid is a must-start at tight end. Kincaid finished last week with another touchdown and another 15-point performance. He is quickly becoming a favorite target and plays more snaps out wide than almost every other tight end in the league. The Jets' secondary has been elite and will be a problem for Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs, but their biggest weakness is tight end right now. They have allowed more touchdowns to the position than any other team in football and should be the area the Bills attack most this week.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs. DET)
Kmet continues to raise his ceiling on an almost weekly basis as he finds the end zone at a high rate. He has scored between 15-27 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He is being highly targeted in this offense and is the main weapon in the red zone right now. HE gets a great divisional matchup against a Lions' team that is currently allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Tight end is always a tough position to predict, but Kmet has been putting up consistent numbers in recent weeks.
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