Roundtable Week 10: Rookie QBs Revisited

Welcome to Week 10 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Can't Go Home Again
• Bears Ground Game
• Rookie QBs Revisited (see below)
• Either/Or: The QB Edition

Let's roll.

Rookie QBs Revisited

Matt Waldman: Consider the following rookie QBs.

• Anthony Richardson
• Bryce Young
• C.J. Stroud
• Will Levis
• Tyson Bagent

Answer the following:

• Considering the hype/fall of players like Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jake Locker, how many games do you think we must see to determine a quarterback's long-term viability as a franchise starter?
• Pick two players from the list and tell us why you're holding them.
• Pick one player you're buying and explain why.

Proceed...

Dave Kluge: We need at least an entire season to really understand who a quarterback is. And if a rookie quarterback is thrust into a role midseason, we probably won’t have a full read on them until midway through Year 2 (Brock Purdy). But even then, quarterbacks can take leaps and fall down well beyond that first year. Look at Jared Goff’s resurgence in Detroit. Or Carson Wentz’s falloff in 2020. Quarterback is the most challenging position to play in football, and so much more goes into success than individual talent alone.

Dan Hindery: This is a sliding scale based on how well the quarterback is playing. It can be as little as half a season if a young quarterback checks almost all the boxes immediately. Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud are examples of players who proved their viability as long-term starters by the midway point of their first full seasons.

On the other end of the spectrum, it could take three or four years to render a verdict when a quarterback is checking some boxes but not others. Aside from the truly elite young quarterbacks, there will be pluses and minuses on the franchise quarterback resumes of everyone else. It could take years to determine if the flaws in their games are worth trying to work around or if seeking a replacement is the better course of action.