Welcome to Week 13 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Playoff Heroes
- RB Roulette: Whose Recent Emergence Is Sustainable
- Playoff Losers
- WR Perception Game (see below)
Let's roll.
WR Perception Game: Who Is Better/Worse Than Their Perceived Value
Matt Waldman: Which wide receiver is clearly worse than his current fantasy value? Which wide receiver is clearly better than his current value? Pick one for each question from the list below.
Let's begin with Whom You Believe is better...
Phil Alexander: Jayden Reed is clearly better than his current fantasy value. Reed's ability to show up consistently in the box score is in direct contrast to Jordan Love's erratic quarterback play. Through 11 games, Reed has scored at least nine half-PPR fantasy points an impressive seven times.
We often see rookie wide receivers save their best for the second half of the season, and true to form, Reed ranks as a top-10 wide receiver in fantasy leagues since Week 8. Love's recent hot streak probably won't remain a trend, but Reed looks like a future star who has proven he can produce despite an otherwise dysfunctional offense. He should maintain his value as one of the more valuable WR3s in fantasy down the stretch.
Joseph Haggan: Rashee Rice is much better than his current fantasy value and could be a viable sleeper down the stretch of the season. He has seen less than five targets in just three games this season and is coming off of a huge Week 12 with 10 targets, eight receptions, 107 receiving yards, and a touchdown. That was Rice's fifth touchdown of the season and seems like the most consistent receiver on the Chiefs not named Travis Kelce.
Corey Spala: Rashee Rice is better than his current value. I am aware he is coming off his first 100-yard game, which will naturally raise any value. When we look at his box score stats, Rice is averaging 5.1 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 47.9 yards per game. He is the leading wide receiver in those categories for Kansas City, touchdowns (5) included.
Let's look deeper into Rice. Looking at his yards per route run versus man and zone defenses, Rice is hanging with the best of them. Furthermore, the rookie has the highest target rate with at least a step of separation (excluding designed) among all wide receivers. He has been efficient; second in yards after catch per reception and seventh in passer rating when targeted. Rice is doing this in a limited fashion, he has yet to play a game over 70% snaps. He averages 48.8% snaps per game. If Rice had a full-time role, I am assuming his name would be mentioned more.
Andy Hicks: Tank Dell has had four sensational games in a row. He has been the number three-ranked fantasy receiver over the last five weeks. Only Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb rank higher. His five touchdowns lead the league during this time, while his quarterback C.J. Stroud is on a hot streak not seen by a rookie quarterback for a long time. I would expect a slight cooling down, but ride the wave while it's there.
Jeff Haseley: Tank Dell. Dell is the leading target on one of the better passing teams in the league. He has shown he can be a reliable option for C.J. Stroud, and I don't believe we have seen the best he can offer yet. I said it in preseason, and I'll say it again, Dell reminds me of Amon-Ra St. Brown and now he's starting to play like him.
Waldman: Except Dell is FAR MORE explosive than St. Brown and can function on the outside in more ways the St. Brown. Still, that's quite a compliment to Dell as a route-runner/pass-catcher.
Gary Davenport: Hard as it is to believe, given how hot he's been of late, Tank Dell might actually be better than his current fantasy value. In the past four games, Dell has caught at least 5 passes for 50 yards and found the end zone, with a pair of massive outings over that stretch. And yet it feels like Dell is only beginning to hit his stride with C.J. Stroud as quarterback. With Dell quickly becoming Stroud's favorite target (especially in the scramble drill), we could be looking at the emergence of the next elite fantasy asset.
Joey Wright: It is difficult to see the production from Tank Dell this season and not be excited. Currently, Dell is the WR12 in PPR fantasy points per game with 3 top-10 weekly wide receiver performances on the season. His value as a borderline No.1 wide receiver in just his rookie season might make one believe he is overvalued.
In the past ten seasons, a rookie wide receiver has finished in the top twelve only four times. Three of those receivers, Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, and Justin Jefferson, continued their success in the following two seasons.
The fourth, Ja'Marr Chase, is currently in his third season but repeated his rookie success in his sophomore season and is currently the WR8. In the preseason, quarterback C.J. Stroud was banging the table for Dell to be a big part of this offense, and we are now seeing why. Dell is a WR1 for the rest of the season and a receiver worthy of a top-24 pick heading into 2024.
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