Rushing Matchups Week 19

Top 3 Rushing Matchups

Note: This is a week where none of these matchups stand out as either great or good.

Dallas vs Green Bay

Dallas handing the reigns to Tony Pollard has not gone as well as they had hoped this season. Pollard averaged just 59 rushing yards per game and has topped 80 yards once this season. The issue for Pollard this season has been the lack of big play ability, as he has just two carries longer than 25 yards this season and none longer than 20 yards over his last six games. The offensive line for Dallas is among the league's best as Matt Bitonti has them 5th-overall led by All-Pro Zach Martin at right guard. For Dallas to make a deep run in the playoffs, they will likely need Pollard to make a big play at some point throughout the playoffs.

Green Bay's run defense this season has been near league average in most categories. They're allowing 96 rushing yards per game, the 10th-most this season. However, down the stretch, this defense has struggled to stop the run and has allowed five running backs to run for 80 yards or more since Week 10. The Packers' defensive line is among the biggest in the NFL, as Kenny Clark, T.J. Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt are all over 300 pounds, and while they have the size, they have struggled with athleticism as the running backs that have found success this season typically have teams not afraid to attack the interior as the outside linebackers in Preston Smith and Rashan Gary are elite run stoppers at outside linebacker. Tony Pollard could have some success based on his cutback style, which could create space against the Packers' large interior front.

Pittsburgh at Buffalo

Pittsburgh has turned to their run game to win their last three games and get them into the playoffs. The Steelers are averaging 34 carries per game between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, with Harris getting the bulk of the work. Harris is leading the way with 24 carries, 104 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last three weeks. With Mason Rudolph at quarterback, the Steelers will try to keep the ball on the ground and use the run game to set up the passing attack. This has worked well lately, with Rudolph completing 74% of his passes in his three starts. While the Steelers still have issues at the tackle position, the interior of the offensive line has turned into a cohesive run-blocking unit led by Isaac Seumalo.

Buffalo boasts one of the league's best defensive lines this season, but if you can get to the second level, this is where you can have some success against this defense. The Bills have struggled this season against some of the fastest running backs in the NFL. Breece Hall, De'Von Achane, and Travis Etienne all topped 100 rushing yards, while Saquon Barkley had over 90 yards against this defense. Where they've been elite is shutting down some of the downhill one-cut running backs, as they eliminated Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Rachaad White-type running backs. The issue for the Bills at linebacker has been that they lost Matt Milano back in Week 5 after already losing Tremaine Edmunds in the offseason. This has left the linebacker position already thin, but they may have lost Tyrel Dodson this week after being injured in Week 18. This could set up well for a Jaylen Warren game, given the profile of running backs who have beaten this Bills defense.

Buffalo vs Pittsburgh

James Cook is going to play a critical role in the playoffs as the Bills as he has completely taken over the backfield after an early timeshare with Latavius Murray. Murray had been the short yardage and goal-line back. But he has not had a touch in the red zone over the last three weeks and did not have a snap last week in a must-win game against the Dolphins. That red zone work has largely shifted to Cook and Josh Allen, who was tied with Jalen Hurts for the league lead in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback this season. For Cook, it is all about his ability to reach the second level. If there are holes in the defensive line, he can make a linebacker's day miserable as he seemingly picks up speed after he gets past the line of scrimmage. Consistency is the key for Cook, as in his game against Dallas in Week 15, he was just the third player in the last two seasons to average more than 4.0 yards before contact, per ESPN's Ed Werner. Yet in his next three games, he could not get anything going against the Chargers, Miami, and New England, averaging just 3.1 yards-per-carry and not having a carry longer than 15 yards.

Pittsburgh is another defense that is by no means a bad run defense, but this is a week where all of the teams playing have strong run defenses. Pittsburgh has been volatile this season against the run, as they're averaging 98 rushing yards per game, which is 11th-most in the NFL this year, but that does not tell the full story. This is a defense that they've had weeks where they look dominant, but in seven games this season, they've allowed over 100 yards to opposing running backs, including 170 yards to Indianapolis in Week 15, 130 yards to Arizona in Week 13, 170 to Cleveland in Week 2, and 162 in Week 1 to San Francisco. The Steelers will be without their best defensive player, T.J. Watt, who is dealing with a knee injury. The Steelers rely heavily on their defensive line and outside linebackers led by Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and T.J. Watt, as their middle linebackers have struggled to stop the run, so with Watt out, we could see some vulnerability this week with Mykal Walker and Elandon Roberts.

Bottom 3 Rushing Matchups

LA Rams at Detroit

Kyren Williams has quickly elevated himself into one of the league's best running backs this season. Over his first six games before he missed a month due to injury, Williams was averaging 16 carries per game. Since returning from injury, he's come back a different running back, averaging 21.8 carries per game in the six games since his return. Averaging 5.0 yards-per-carry, fourth behind Christian McCaffrey, Jaylen Warren, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Williams is a dynamic difference maker that has made the Rams so dangerous as they're 5-1 since he returned.

Detroit's run defense has been the backbone of this team for most of the season. This defense is completely designed to stop the run at all costs while creating a funnel for opposing defenses to throw the ball successfully. On the season, the Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, at just 15.8 PPR points per game, while the next closest team is almost a full point higher than them. The defensive line for the Lions has been among the best in the NFL led by Aidan Hutchinson and defensive tackle Alim McNeil, it has made the job easy for linebackers Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone. This is a defense that has not allowed a running back to top 70 yards all season, and while they do have the benefit of facing a somewhat easy NFC North schedule with getting six games against fellow NFC North opponents and four games against the NFC South this year, not allowing a single running back to top 70 rushing yards is a remarkable accomplishment.

Detroit vs LA Rams

The Lions have arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL this season, as both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been excellent. Montgomery is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, while Gibbs is 3rd in the NFL behind Christian McCaffrey and Jaylen Warren at 5.2 yards per carry. The Lions boast one of the league's best offensive lines led by center Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, who is among the league's best run blockers. This dynamic combination of an elite run-blocking center with one of the best run-blocking tackles has complimented the running style of Gibbs, who is more of the off-tackle runner, and Montgomery, who is the downhill in-between-the-tackles running back.

The Rams have quietly emerged as one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL. On the year, they're allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, the sixth-fewest yards, and the fifth-fewest touchdowns to the position. This is a team that has allowed just one running back to top 75 yards all season which was Christian McCaffrey back in Week 2, as they've shut down running backs such as Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, Ken Walker, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley this season. Aaron Donald continues to be the gold standard of defensive lineman, but he has help in Bobby Brown, who is 6-foot-4, 330 pounds and has done a tremendous job keeping blockers from getting to the second level, allowing Ernest Jones to emerge as one of the league's best run-stopping linebackers this year. In a game expected to be high-scoring due to both pass defenses that are struggling, look for the Lions to play more Jahmyr Gibbs than David Montgomery this week, as they'll likely avoid trying to run against this defense as much as possible.

Cleveland at Houston

Cleveland's rushing attack has not been efficient since the loss of Nick Chubb back in Week 2. The combination of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt has averaged just 3.6 yards-per-carry, and while Ford has been the better running back of the two, he's been a guy who has been able to extremely boom or bust this season as he has eight games under 50 yards rushing not counting Week 18 where he had just three carries. In the previous matchup between these two teams, Ford was a non-factor as he had just 25 yards on 15 carries against the Texans as the Browns needed to throw the ball heavily to have success in that matchup. Since Joe Flacco has become the starting quarterback, Ford is averaging just 3.1 yards-per-carry as he has fallen off considerably compared to earlier this season with Deshaun Watson and P.J. Walker at quarterback.

Many teams have tried to run the ball heavily against Houston, thinking they are still the same Texans as they were in the past several seasons, but this is a completely different defense this year. In 2023, the Texans allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, the best in the NFL this year. Surprisingly, the Texans allowed the Colts to run all over them in Week 18, allowing 218 yards on the ground. This was the first time a running back had topped 100 yards all season and the first time since Week 3 that a running back had topped 75 yards, as Jonathan Taylor had 188 yards on 30 carries. While this was a poor performance, context matters here. This was a game in which the Texans had a lead for most of the game and largely sat in a pass-defense scheme willing to allow the Colts to run the ball to burn the clock. There should still be concern, mostly because of the loss of Jimmie Ward and Jonathan Greenard, who have been good run-stoppers for Houston this season. However, this is still a team led by Blake Cashman, who is among the best run-stopping linebackers in the league.