Travis Kelce: How Early is Too Early to Draft Him?

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

When it comes to ranking players, there's always a whirlwind of viewpoints, igniting fiery debates on their place in the hierarchy and their suitability as foundational pieces for your fantasy football team. Travis Kelce, however, stands apart from the crowd. Beyond the fervent naysayers, the consensus is clear: Kelce isn't just a top-notch player. He's a future Hall of Famer and one of the best ever to grace his position.

The core of the debate with a powerhouse like Kelce is pinpointing his draft value: just how high should he be picked, and how does his worth as the premier tight end stack up against your options in other positions?

The simple answer is that Travis Kelce is an absolutely defensible pick at any draft position, and yes, that includes first overall. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not outright advocating for Kelce to be the first name off the board in a 12-team, snake draft league. But I'd argue there's a solid case for picking him first. Depending on your draft position and the strategy you're rolling with for team-building, Kelce should be snapped up no later than the 6th overall pick in every draft.

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Travis Kelce is an All-Time Great

I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, but it's worth noting how dominant Kelce has been.

Top 20 Tight Ends (1960-Present), Total Career Receiving Yards

Kelce currently stands 4th with 10,344 yards and 5th with 814 receptions among tight ends. Based on his trajectory, if he sticks around for a few more seasons, there's a solid chance he could secure the second spot all-time. Taking over the top spot from Tony Gonzalez, though, might require at least another half-decade on the gridiron.

But what's really interesting here is the rapidity of Kelce's rise. He's skyrocketed up the ranks playing fewer games than many of his top-tier peers. Take a peek at how they stack up when we talk fantasy points per game (PPR):

Top 20 Tight Ends, Receiving Yards (1960-Present), Ranked by Fantasy Points (PPR) Per Game

On a PPR basis, Kelce is the best fantasy tight end in history. He's averaged a full point more per game than Rob Gronkowski, who sits comfortably at No. 2 on the list.

2022's Dominance Was (Almost) Unprecedented

Kelce wasn't just the No. 1 fantasy tight end last year; it was the sixth time he's claimed the top spot out of the last seven seasons. But it's not his position at the top that's truly remarkable - it's the staggering margin by which he outplayed everyone else at his position.

2022 Stats and Fantasy Values

Kelce didn't just beat T.J. Hockenson, the No. 2 fantasy tight end, he outscored him by a whopping 100-plus fantasy points. It's an absolute rarity to see the top player at any position lead their next closest competitor by such a striking difference. But exactly how uncommon is this feat?

No. 1 Fantasy Players at Each Position (QB/RB/WR/TE), 2013-2022

Kelce's performance wasn't just good, it was extraordinary. On a per game basis, he outpaced Hockenson by an impressive 32.5%. This meant that if you had Kelce in your fantasy lineup, you were ahead by an average of more than 6 points at the tight end position against your competitor—sometimes, by even more.

Now, let's put this into perspective among all NFL players. In terms of a sheer fantasy point lead over the player ranked No. 2 in their respective position, Kelce's staggering 6.05-point edge is only surpassed by the phenomenal seasons of Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas in 2019. But when we talk percentages, Kelce is unrivaled—sitting at the pinnacle.