The Gut Check No.611: The Trevor Lawrence Dented Can Discount

Photo: Corey Perrine, USA Today Sports

Is Trevor Lawrence A "Dented Can" Bargain?

"Dented Can," is a great dynasty league term that Adam Harstad brings to the hobby. It's the notion that people see the can as trash when it actually has the same long-term value that the public originally perceived of it before the "dents." These dented cans present a buy-low opportunity.

The dents on Trevor Lawrence's game come from the data. One of the best representations of that data comes from my friend, Jason Wood, and his argument in this week's Roundtable feature on public perception of Lawrence and four other quarterbacks:

Matt Waldman: Which quarterback is clearly worse than his current fantasy value? Which quarterback is clearly better than his current value? Pick one for each question from the list below.

• C.J. Stroud
• Trevor Lawrence
• Dak Prescott
• Sam Howell
• Brock Purdy

Jason Wood: Lawrence is clearly worse. The draft pedigree and "can't miss" label he carried from high school to his vaunted years at Clemson are anchoring analysts to viewing Lawrence as one of the league's best young quarterbacks. We're nearly three years into his career, and you have to squint to be encouraged.

We forgave a historically bad rookie year because of the Urban Meyer fiasco, and to Lawrence's credit, he improved markedly in Year Two. But he's regressed in every way in Year Three, and the trajectory is damning.

Lawrence is 41st among active quarterbacks in career passer rating (84.6), ranked 59th out of qualifiers in fumbles and interceptions per game, and 50th out of 79 qualifying quarterbacks in touchdown-to-turnover differential. And lest you think those numbers are mainly because of his lost rookie season, this year he ranks 19th in passer rating, 27th in turnovers per game, and 34th in touchdown-to-turnover differential.

The only quarterbacks ranked lower in all of those metrics are Tyson Bagent, Aidan O'Connell, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, and Zach Wilson.

Looks pretty bad, right? Wood's argument, combined with Harstad's questions about Lawrence on our podcast, got me curious about how bad Lawrence looks.

The Data vs. the Film's Context

So I asked Wood for the data he compiled after I charted Lawrence's 2023 turnovers...

Wood: Here are the spreadsheets if you're interested.

Me: Perfect! Thank you. I just charted all of his fumbles and INTs this year and wated to makes some adjustments to see how he'd fare.

Wood: No worries. Although that sounds like a lot of work putting lipstick on a pig ;)

Me: Took me an hour. It was more like removing the garbage bag and potato sack hood from Cheryl Tiegs.