The All-Sleeper Team
Unless you play in dozens of leagues, you're a fool if you draft this team as your fantasy squad.
This week's Gut Check profiles my list of sleepers. It's a squad of underrated and lesser-known options who may have your competition laughing now, but with the right opportunities, these sleepers could be a reason your league is congratulating you later.
Most of these players are late-round picks and free agents who will be on and off your waiver wire for the first 3-5 weeks of the season. Some will be players I'd take in the earlier half of drafts. Just don't take all of them at the same time unless you're feeling dangerous and not in a Baker Mayfield feuding with Colin Cowherd way.
Here's the list of 21 players broken down by position and advice on when to take action.
The Quarterbacks
Except for one passer on this list, the pervasive theme for these quarterbacks is a passing game loaded with veteran skill talent. If you're old enough to remember the one-year fantasy values of Matt Cassel, Scott Mitchell, or Nick Foles, you know surrounding talent can buoy quarterback performance.
The High-Ceiling Pick: Bo Nix
What You Should Know: There's still lingering skepticism about how good Nix is. Quick, name a top-10 quarterback who didn't have a quality second option in the passing game last year with at least fantasy WR2 or TE1 value: Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts? Nope. Not Dak Prescott or Caleb Williams. Definitely not Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye.
The only three quarterbacks who meet that requirement last year were Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Bo Nix. Few doubt the first two passers. The addition of Jaylen Waddle creates spacing for multiple receivers on plays that they didn't have with less versatile route runners like Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant. Waddle's speed and route skills, combined with Courtland Sutton's game, create binds that will make the contributing receivers tougher to contain.
When to Act: Nix is valued as a low-end QB1 in 16-team formats. He has been QB8 and QB9 during his first two years without a legitimate WR2 or TE1. Now he has a co-fantasy WR1 in Waddle. He should be in that QB7-10 range. If you take him as QB10-12, you're still getting value with a top-five ceiling.
The Inexplicable Sleeper: Matthew Stafford
What You Should Know: Age and regression candidacy. How about experience, wise nutrition and training, and a pair of top route runners with Hall of Fame tracks and a strong offense in a tough division that will require them to throw to win?
There's a time to fear age. A weakened-armed Matt Ryan and Drew Brees were good examples, telegraphing their declines for at least two years. Stafford still has a top-five arm.
You can look at his inconsistency with statistically strong seasons throughout his career, but injuries to key talent or a lack of key talent were always factors. Projecting or ranking Stafford outside the top five at his position is ludicrous. Valuing him outside the top-12 is inexplicable.
When to Act: If I have other players I want in rounds 8-10, I'd go as early as the seventh round with Stafford. Otherwise, where you can get QBs 8-10, take Stafford before someone wises up during their draft and realizes that the game slows down for older passers, and older passers who take good care of their bodies can play into their early 40s. Few have done it, but Stafford is 37 and in better shape now than he was as a Georgia QB who ate too much Guthrie's in Athens.
The Perennial Sleeper: Jared Goff
What You Should Know: Amon-Ra St. Brown, a top WR1 talent? Check. Jameson Williams, at worst, a mid-range WR2? Check. A healthy Sam LaPorta with mid-range fantasy TE1 upside? Check. Jahmyr Gibbs, a fantasy RB1 whose receiving production was better than TE11 Brock Bowers last year? Yup.
But Matt, the fantasy community whines, he's not a rushing production candidate, and rushing production candidates offer 3.160483 times more production potential than pocket quarterbacks. These kinds of stats are gutter bumpers for fantasy GMs who don't know the difference between a good pocket passer and a bad one.
Jaxson Dart averaged fewer points per game than Goff. So did Nix and Baker Mayfield. Justin Herbert averaged the same.
Instead of quoting context-poor stats about rushing quarterbacks vs pocket quarterbacks, look at the surrounding talent for the pocket quarterback with proven skill and consider whether that's better than a quarterback who can't throw the ball with accuracy beyond 25 yards.
When to Act: Rounds 8-11, you're welcome.
Future Starter You Don't Know: Kurtis Rourke
What You Should Know: Dude played on a torn ACL as Kurt Cignetti's first starter at Indiana and apparently didn't know it. Rourke led Indiana's rival. The 49ers took him as a redshirt option, and Mac Jones will be traded by midseason.
If the 49ers fall apart, which is possible given the injury history associated with multiple older players -- NOTE IT'S NOT AGE ALONE -- Rourke could find himself in cleanup duty down the stretch or starting if Brock Purdy gets hurt.
When to Act: He's a good taxi squad option in dynasty formats and a second-half emergency quarterback this year.
The Career Revival Candidate: Anthony Richardson Sr.
What You Should Know: The Colts praised Richardson for his professionalism and his improvement as a pre-snap decision-maker. He's the most talented quarterback on the roster, but he's likely to be traded. Cutting a passer like Richardson when Joe Milton III got traded from the Patriots to the Cowboys would have been foolish.
When to Act: When Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson curb-stomp Kyler Murray for his me-me-me antics and they trade Richardson to Minnesota for the University of Michigan Dairy Model? Just keep an eye on Daniel Jones' inability to generate power off his right foot when trying to throw low-trajectory targets in the timing passing game and the Riley Leonard/home state/Notre Dame bias to age like dairy in a hot car after a half or two of football.
The Deepest Cut: Jack Strand
What You Need to Know: Strand has the size, the legs, and a better arm than I saw when scouting him. His QB coach told me as much this offseason when I showed him my scouting report. He said what I saw was understandable, but what he did in practice for years was a different story. Unfortunately, I only had the tape the QB coach gave me, so I stuck with what was on the field.
Strand played well enough to earn an active roster spot as the Falcons' QB4. Given the injury history of the top two QBs, Strand is the equivalent of QB2 for most other NFL teams.
Strand was up and down with his reads of the field in college. Expecting strong diagnostic skill across the board as a rookie isn't a good idea.
When to Act: You probably don't want to rookie QB as your starter or QB2 in a SuperFlex format, but if you're desperate, it's worthy knowing who your options are.
Inheriting a Full Cupboard: Tyson Bagent
What You Should Know: Teams called for Bagent after his rookie year. The Bears didn't budge. Now he's two years into an offense that might be the league's best before this year is over. Bagent has weapons everywhere, a better offensive line, good athletic ability in his own right, and a good mentor in Case Keenum as part of a strong quarterback room.
If Ben Johnson must turn to Bagent due to a Caleb Williams injury, Bagent has shown the potential to become a second-contract starter since his college years. I've been holding onto Bagent in large dynasty leagues since his rookie year
When to Act: Are you in a two-QB format and you missed grabbing a third option but want to take a shot on a promising backup passer in a good offense? Bagent is worth consideration in this situation if you have at least 30 roster spots.
