The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
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Here are the two tight ends who received the most overvalued votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Matt Waldman: Kmet is a good example of an NFL tight end with a versatile skillset but lacking the elite skills to generate mismatches as a receiver detached from the line. This is what Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts possess. It means Kmet's fantasy ceiling is at the low end of the top-12 at the position. No shame there, but drafting Kmet in the range of TE8-TE14 is taking him near his ceiling, whereas Kincaid and Higbee offer more upside, especially when considering the Bears' addition of Robert Tonyan Jr, who possesses more matchup capability detached from the line and could cut into Kmet's value.
Ben Cummins: The Bears ranked dead last in pass attempts (377) and passing yards (2,219) last season. While there is no place to go but up, the addition of alpha wide receiver DJ Moore as well as Chase Claypool for a full season, mitigate any increased target volume Kmet could’ve hoped for. Plus, they also brought in Robert Tonyan Jr to compete with Kmet at his position. Kmet is an easy avoid at cost.
Dave Kluge: If Kmet couldn’t make it work in 2022, it’s probably time to throw in the towel. Despite leading the team in targets and having almost no competition in the passing game, he finished as TE8. Then the Bears added Robert Tonyan Jr in free agency. In 2023, Darnell Mooney is expected to be back and healthy. An offseason should help Chase Claypool be more of a factor. And, of course, the team added DJ Moore in a blockbuster trade. Kmet goes from the team’s primary target to the fourth or fifth option. Kmet is a great football player, but his role isn’t great for fantasy production.
Kevin Coleman: We saw Kmet's ceiling last season, and it was pretty uninspiring. He was a low-end TE1 with no target competition in a low-passing volume offense. This year he'll compete with DJ Moore, a healthy Chase Claypool, a healthy Darnell Mooney, and free agent acquisition Robert Tonyan Jr. Tonyan has been said to be getting first-team reps in the offense this off-season, and that should be concerning for managers looking to draft Kmet. Based on his current ADP, there are many options with higher ceilings in that range. Draft them instead.
Nick Whalen: The additions of DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, Tyler Scott, Roschon Johnson, and Robert Tonyan Jr will bump Kmet down in the priority order for targets and reduce his opportunity for overall targets. ESPN Bears reporter Courtney Cronin also predicted that Robert Tonyan Jr could be the big receiving threat at tight end and not Cole Kmet. I'm not sure I agree with the prediction, but all of the data coming from Chicago says to pump the brakes on Kmet in 2023.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Williams: While he was on the opposite list last year, Evan Engram is a prime candidate to regress in 2023. Calvin Ridley is the only new addition that offers target competition, but Ridley's ability to command targets should make him a seamless fit into the Jaguars' offense. Engram was productive in 2022, but the team seems prepared to move on from him after selecting Brenton Strange on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. With Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and a better pass-catching running back in Tank Bigsby all vying for targets, it wouldn't be shocking to see Engram slip in production.
Jeff Bell: It's a dangerous game to remove one outcome. Engram finished as PPR TE5 in 2022, mainly off the back of a 39.2-point performance in Week 14. With that performance removed, his PPG drops an entire two points, putting his profile more in line with Juwan Johnson. The addition of Calvin Ridley will significantly disrupt the Jaguars' target split, and the team used a 2nd round pick on Brenton Strange, a player with a better blocking profile than Engram. TE8 is an aggressive valuation on Engram currently.
Nick Whalen: Opportunity is massive for the tight end position in fantasy. Calvin Ridley being added to this team will greatly reduce the targets available for Engram. Tank Bigsby and Brenton Strange were drafted on Day 2, which further muddies the water. Another negative is the fact that Engram has played a full season in only two of the six years he has been in the NFL.
Phil Alexander: Calvin Ridley's arrival creates a target squeeze in Jacksonville. Engram is talented enough talent to post an overall TE1 performance in any given week, but it wouldn't be surprising if his total targets decreased by as much as 25% compared to his 2022 numbers. If you're thinking about selecting a tight end in Engram's range, you're better off kicking the can down the road at the position and targeting a breakout candidate in the later rounds.
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