Underdog Pick 'Em Week 13

Photo: Thomas Shea, USA Today Sports

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Underdog's Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 12 Review

Overall Picks (5-5 on the week, 86-72-1 on the season)
Overall Units (-3 last week, +18 Units on the season)

Eagles-Bills 10X (-1 Unit, 1-3) Allen (260.5) easily topped his passion yardage prop, throwing for 339 yards. However, Stefon Diggs (75.5) came up just short of his receiving prop (74 receiving yards), and Dalton Kincaid (49.5) also came up short (38 receiving yards). On the other side, D'Andre Swift (15.5) had only four receiving yards.

Jaguars-Texans 6X (-1 Unit, 2-1) We were a Tank Dell (61.5 receiving yards) calf injury away from an easy win here. Dell had 50 receiving yards in the first half, plus he had a long gain ruled incomplete and a 62-yard catch brought back due to illegal motion. His injury led to him having zero catches in the second half. Both quarterbacks flew past their passing yardage overs. Trevor Lawrence (253.5) threw for 364, and C.J. Stroud (271.5) threw for 304. It was just some bad luck with Dell that cost us here.

Saints-Falcons 6X (-1 Unit, 2-1) More rotten injury luck. Bijan Robinson (59.5) rushed for 91 yards. Taysom Hill (19.5) rushed for 26. We just needed more than 37.5 receiving yards from Rashid Shaheed. He was targeted 5 times early in the game but was injured with five minutes left in the first half and never returned.

Lessons learned: It feels like we were on the right side of things in two of our three Pick ‘Ems. But for some bad injury luck, it would have been a +9 Unit week.

Week 13 Picks

Dolphins-Commanders 20X

Washington has been incredibly pass-heavy this season. The offense is regularly putting up big passing yardage totals. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders have been getting crushed. The Dolphins' elite offense could have a field day against this unit. The recommended Pick ‘Em gets aggressive, going for the long shot 20X. If you want to play it more conservatively, drop Tyreek Hill and/or Sam Howell from the Pick ‘Em.

Tua Tagovailoa

Higher than 277.5 Passing Yards

• Tagovailoa has topped 280 passing yards in 6 of 11 starts this season.
• Aside from the 50-point win over the Broncos in Week 3, Tagovailoa has attempted at least 30 passes in every game this season.
• No other team is even close to the 303.6 passing yards per game allowed by the Commanders defense.
• The Commanders have given up more than 277.5 passing yards in seven of the past nine games (77.7%). The only two quarterbacks they've faced over this stretch who have not thrown for more than 277.5 were Tommy DeVito and Mac Jones.

Tyreek Hill

Higher than 99.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

• Hill has at least 100 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
• He has had at least 10 targets in six straight games and is averaging 11.0 yards per target.
• The Commanders have allowed a league-high 196.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
• Hill has been talking about his goal of reaching 2,000 receiving yards this season. He needs to average 112.7 yards per game to get there.

Jaylen Waddle

Higher than 67.5 Receiving Yards

• Waddle battled injuries early in the season but is back to full health. He has averaged 83.0 receiving yards per game over his last four.
• As noted above, the Commanders give up 196.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers.

Sam Howell

Higher than 264.5 Passing Yards

• No quarterback in the league is throwing the ball anywhere near as often as Sam Howell. He has five straight games with 44 or more passing attempts.
• The Commanders are averaging a league-high 40.5 passing attempts per game.
• Howell has averaged 295.3 passing yards on 43.5 attempts per game in the eight losses. With the Dolphins entering this game as massive favorites, the game script sets up for Howell to throw the ball 40-plus times again.

Another week with Sam Howell at the 🔝 pic.twitter.com/W3panb1076

— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2023

Jahan Dotson

Higher than 3.0 Receptions

• Over the past six games, Dotson has averaged 4.2 receptions on 6.3 targets per game.
• Over this recent six-game stretch, Dotson has four games with more than three catches, one with exactly three catches, and just one with less than three catches.
• The Dolphins allow the fourth-most receptions per game (14.5) to opposing wide receivers.