The 2024 season is almost upon us, so it's time for bold takes.
We asked the Footballguys staff to give their ride-or-die takes for this season. Here's what they said.
A Bold Take from Jason Wood
Josh Allen will disappoint as the runaway consensus No. 1 quarterback.
Further, he will likely fall closer to QB7, even if he stays healthy. While that may not seem like a big deal, even if I'm right, it's a 4- to 5-point per-week difference, historically. That's the equivalent difference between Jahmyr Gibbs and Gus Edwards last year or Ja'Marr Chase versus Tyler Lockett. For more detailed thoughts on why I'm worried about Allen and our industry-wide complacency in slotting him atop the rankings, you can read my Player Spotlight article.
A Bold Take from Sam Wagman
Anthony Richardson finishes as a top-three fantasy QB.
Why? Because it really doesn't matter if he's good as long as he stays healthy and doesn't get benched. Richardson is coming off a season in which he led the NFL in Fantasy Points per Touch among QBs, albeit with that number only coming in four games, and carries a rushing upside that we don't get to see in QBs besides Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. If he can show an improved passing arsenal in his second season after rehabbing his shoulder this offseason, he carries QB1 overall upside this season.
A Bold Take from Bob Harris
Kyler Murray will finish the season as a top-three fantasy quarterback.
Coming off a torn ACL, Murray impressed after his Week 10 return. He was QB10 in his eight starts. But he went next level in the final four games, completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 935 yards and seven touchdowns. The Cardinals led the league in total offense, with 414.3 yards per game, over that stretch, and Murray was QB7. If he picks up where he left off, and if Marvin Harrison Jr. explodes in his rookie season, Murray could deliver the kind of fantasy numbers we saw in 2020 when he finished the year as QB2, scoring an average of 24.2 fantasy points per game.
A Bold Take from Phil Alexander
Sam Darnold will resurrect his career and finish inside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks.
Before you click the back button on your browser, hear me out. In 2023, Kevin O'Connell's Vikings finished with the fourth-highest overall pass rate (66%) and sixth-highest pass rate over expectation (2.1%). In a four-game stint to close the season, their journeyman quarterback Nick Mullens led the NFL in passing yards. Justin Jefferson is the game's best wide receiver. Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and (eventually) T.J. Hockenson round out one of the most dangerous pass-catching groups in the league. The Vikings offense is the catbird seat for passing fantasy points. It won't always be pretty. Lord knows it wasn't with Mullens. But Darnold has always had the arm talent. Now, he has the system and weapons in place to succeed, and his team has no other option if he struggles than to let him keep chucking his way through it.
A Bold Take from Gary Davenport
Dak Prescott will finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Yes, Prescott’s not a sexy pick because he doesn’t run a lot, although he has five seasons with over 200 rushing yards and six with multiple rushing scores. And yes, Prescott is still waiting for that Brinks truck to show up at his house.
But Lamb has his bag, and Jerry Jones realizes that making Ezekiel Elliott’s corpse the No. 1 back for an “all-in” team may be—unwise. Dallas can still contend in the NFC East, but it’s by becoming one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. Top 4,500 passing yards and 35 touchdown passes again, and no one will care if Prescott is a threat with his legs.
A Bold Take from Devin Knotts
C.J. Stroud struggles in 2024 and finishes outside of the top 10 quarterbacks.
Everything needs to go right for Stroud this season, as dating back to college, he is not a quarterback who will run the ball. Stroud finished as QB9 last season but has three things working against him in 2024. First is an improved defense, which should prevent some of those shootout back-and-forth games we saw last season. Second is a much improved rushing offense with the addition of Joe Mixon compared to Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce. Third is the schedule, as they will now need to play the winners of each of the other divisions instead of the last place team in each division last year.