The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.
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Here are the players who received the most votes:
- Caleb Williams, Chicago
- C.J. Stroud, Houston
And here are all of the players with multiple mentions and the reasons why.
Overvalued Player Receiving 4 Votes
Caleb Williams, Chicago
Jason Wood: I'm a Caleb Williams believer and fully endorse his being the 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts. However, in redraft leagues, he's being overvalued based on the historically exceptional success we saw from C.J. Stroud last year. Yes, Williams is potentially a generational talent, and the Bears are surrounding him with a cadre of offensive options. But we have more than a century of history that shows how difficult the conditions are in Chicago for passing offenses. No quarterback in Bears history has thrown for 4,000 yards, much less 5,000 yards -- which is the new benchmark for elite, non-running stardom. Even 3,500 yards -- which is barely QB2-level output, barring significant rushing yards -- has been achieved just four times in the team's history. This year will be a baptism by fire, and I think Williams is far more likely to lead the league in turnovers than he is to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Bob Harris: Every draft must have a generational talent. This year, Williams is that guy. He has the arm strength, accuracy, and mobility to set himself apart at the pro level. As NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah suggested, "Williams has franchise-altering upside." Adding to the intrigue, the Bears learned lessons from their handling of Justin Fields. A supporting cast with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow rookie Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift gives Williams plenty of playmaking talent. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will be looking to tailor that scheme to suit Williams's strengths. So it's not like this isn't a good situation. But even if there's enough talent down the list of QBs to draft a viable starter later, Williams, drafting Williams as QB11 is not a value pick, and you should carefully assess the opportunity cost before landing him at this price.
Chad Parsons: An annual tradition is mentioning the average 1.01-drafted quarterback finishing as QB24 in fantasy as a rookie. This is a reminder for those expecting greatness (especially fantasy-wise) out of the gate from the deemed generational Caleb Williams. Also, Williams does not have a strong rushing profile entering the NFL, a near-mandate to finish highly at the position. Williams is priced near his ceiling, with the floor far lower for 2024.
Andy Hicks: Over the last 10 years, five rookie quarterbacks have finished as a fantasy starter. Last year, C.J. Stroud barely squeaked into the top 12. Only one has finished higher than ninth. That was Dak Prescott. Is Caleb Williams better than any quarterback drafted in the last 10 years? Probably not. With the quality of fantasy options available at quarterback this season, taking a risk on a rookie seems problematic. The team has given Williams quality targets, but his best work may be in future years, not 2024.
Overvalued Players Receiving 3 Votes
C.J. Stroud, Houston
Julia Papworth: Who doesn't love C.J. Stroud? The man threw for over 4100 yards and 23 touchdowns in his rookie season and was the first ever rookie quarterback to have two wide receivers finish in the top 15 in points per game. However, with a round-four ADP, Stroud will have to replicate or better his 2023 season finish to make this draft capital worth it. Stroud doesn't have the rushing upside that several quarterbacks going later in drafts have - he only had 167 yards on the ground last year. There were nineteen quarterbacks who ran for more yards than Stroud; unfortunately for managers who own him in fantasy, that is not in his bag of tricks. If his touchdown numbers regress, you could be looking at a poor return on your very high investment.
Phil Alexander: I don't see the path to a top-5 finish at the position for Stroud. His 22.1 fantasy points per game as a rookie put him in a similar tier as Jordan Love and Brock Purdy. Those guys get drafted three and four rounds later, respectively. The additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon should help Stroud improve on last year's numbers, but he lacks the rushing ability to level up to the Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts tier where he currently gets drafted. If you feel compelled to choose a pocket passer in Rounds 4 or 5, Patrick Mahomes II is the best quarterback on the planet and finished as the overall QB1 as recently as 2022, making him the easy choice ahead of Stroud.
Jeff Bell: Why is Stroud QB5 overall? I struggle to make the stacking argument; with three viable options, we are unsure which of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, or Stefon Diggs is the best play. He finished as the QB10 in PPG, but much of that was driven off a 40+ point performance in Week 9. I know we can't remove that performance, but if you do, he is outside of the top 13. Spending premium capital on a quarterback without a rushing floor is a recipe for disaster.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
Julia Papworth: For the amount of time we saw Anthony Richardson on a football field last year, fantasy managers were impressed. In his two full games, he was QB4 and QB2, with three total passing touchdowns and two total rushing touchdowns. In the two other games he played, he managed only about a third of the snaps due to injury until we lost him for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. In 2023, Richardson completed 60% of his passes with a 3:1 touchdown to interception, all while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Taking Richardson as the QB6 off the board is a gamble simply because of how he plays - the ceiling is extraordinary, but the safety is ultimately nonexistent with how he throws his body around and, with it, his chance for injury.
Gary Davenport: Richardson's talent, athleticism, and upside are undeniable. In the two full games he played as a rookie, Richardson was electric—five total touchdowns, including a pair on the ground. But therein lies the problem—Richardson played in all of two complete games as a rookie (and parts of two more) due to injury. Richardson's fantasy ceiling is the highest-scoring player in fantasy football at his position. But his floor is non-existent, and his playing style and lost first year makes drafting Richardson ahead of Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott just—no.
Andy Hicks: Richardson apparently will not change his playing style heading into his second season. Given he struggled to finish the games he did play last year, that would concern me. With his relative youth, Richardson needs experience and the ability to avoid trouble. Apart from what we did see last year, he is still not the finished product. Is he going to need another long-term injury to adapt? Is he able to play consistently? With his current draft slot, the upside is minimal. The downside is to lose your league.
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