FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 2

Week 2's FanDuel Main Slate presents an interesting challenge. There are a number of chalky plays that are going to be hard to ignore. Jordan Mason at $5,500 is too cheap with Christian McCaffrey out. Cooper Kupp at $7,700 is significantly underpriced after seeing 21 targets in Week 1 and Puka Nacua landing on injured reserve. Deebo Samuel will likely be the 49ers' top passing game target and should also see close to 10 carries. Do you fade players who project as such elite values, or do you play the evident value plays and try to differentiate elsewhere? The latter strategy looks more appealing. 

We can find some differentiation by bypassing the elite passing quarterbacks who project to be especially popular this week in favor of some dual-threat quarterbacks with serious rushing upside. Pairing one of the rushing quarterbacks with a deep-threat wide receiver projected to be low-owned is one path to a unique lineup build. 

Quarterback

In FanDuel tournaments, the importance of rushing upside at the quarterback position cannot be overstated. In Week 1, the top five quarterbacks in FanDuel scoring averaged 10 carries for 65.2 yards and 1.0 rushing touchdowns. They only averaged 27.4 passing attempts and 238.0 passing yards, and four of the top five scored at least 11.5 fantasy points with their legs. This demonstrates that a high passing total is not necessary if a quarterback can score on the ground. That makes quarterbacks with rushing ability the focus of this week’s picks.

Additionally, quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes II (Kansas City, $8,700 vs Cincinnati) and C.J. Stroud (Houston, $8,200 vs Chicago) are strong plays due to their high passing projections, but they come with less rushing upside and are projected to be very popular. Both are fine plays, but we tend to shy away from non-rushing quarterbacks in large tournaments, especially when facing tough pass defenses.

Core Plays

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($8,800 vs Las Vegas)

Lamar Jackson’s rushing upside makes him a high-upside play this week, which could go somewhat overlooked with C.J. Stroud playing in primetime and Patrick Mahomes II playing in a high-profile late afternoon matchup against the Bengals. Jackson is one of the three quarterbacks on this slate projected to get double-digit carries. The Ravens have the sixth-highest implied team total on the slate, and much of the offense should again flow through Jackson. He was involved in all facets of the offense in Week 1, and that usage should continue. Head Coach John Harbaugh emphasized how varied the offense would be, mentioning that individual production might be high variance but that Jackson could have huge games any given week:

“We didn’t bring Derrick [Henry] in here to be the guy that gets the ball 30 times a game. That’s really not the plan. The plan is Derrick, Lamar, Mark [Andrews], Isaiah [Likely], Zay [Flowers], Bate [Rashod Bateman], and Nelly [Nelson Agholor].” – John Harbaugh

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh ($7,000 vs Denver)

At just $7,000, Justin Fields offers tremendous value with his rushing upside. He ran 14 times in Week 1 and showed that his legs will remain a big part of Pittsburgh’s game plan. Fields’ production history is encouraging — in 28 games over the last two seasons, he scored 23 or more FanDuel points 11 times, including multiple 40-point games. He also averages the second-most rushing yards per game of any quarterback in NFL history, making him a strong tournament play. I like pairing him with George Pickens. We saw Fields lean very heavily on DJ Moore last season, and there seems to be a similar dynamic developing with Pickens.

Others to Consider

Jayden Daniels, Washington ($7,900 vs NY Giants)

Jayden Daniels impressed in Week 1, rushing 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Daniels' rushing ability is his biggest asset, and the fact that 77 of his rushing yards came off scrambles means he does not need designed running plays to rack up yardage. His quickness and ability to escape the pocket stood out, earning him a 74.6 PFF rushing grade. In a favorable matchup against a weak Giants pass defense, Daniels is poised for another big day. While there is some concern that Daniels may not hold up with this sort of rushing usage, Head Coach Dan Quinn indicated after Week 1 that he liked how Daniels used his rushing ability and wants to continue to improve the vertical passing game.

Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,000 vs LA Rams)

Kyler Murray may not project for 10+ carries like the other quarterbacks mentioned, but his five carries for 57 yards in Week 1 highlight his rushing ability. He also brings a higher passing floor than the other core plays and will look to get Marvin Harrison Jr. and the deep passing game going after a disappointing debut. Murray’s rushing upside and playmaking ability make him a strong option in Week 2.

Running Back

Injuries are the big story this week, with Christian McCaffrey out for San Francisco, making his backup Jordan Mason underpriced by about $2,000. Ken Walker III for Seattle is doubtful, making his backup, Zach Charbonnet, a major value. Two recommended running backs are on elite offenses favored by at least five points this week. The Chiefs and Texans are big home favorites, while the Cardinals are narrowly favored at home in a potential shootout against the Rams.

Core Plays

Jordan Mason, San Francisco ($5,500 vs Minnesota)

It’s hard not to play Mason. When looking at projected points per dollar (PPD), his 2.80 is way ahead of anyone else (Breece Hall is next at 2.20). His salary in the lead role for arguably the league’s best rushing offense should be closer to $8,000. Maybe more, after he rushed for 147 yards on 28 carries in Week 1. Mason played 81% of the snaps, making him as close to an every-down back as you’ll find in today’s NFL. Even though Mason is projected to be the most popular play on the slate, he’s tough to fade at this price.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City ($7,400 vs Cincinnati)

Pacheco had a solid Week 1 against an elite Ravens run defense. He could explode in Week 2 against a Bengals defense that was awful against the run last season and looked even worse while getting destroyed by Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1. Rookie defensive tackle Kris Jenkins Jr. is out, leaving Cincinnati extremely thin on the interior. The Chiefs' offensive line should be able to control the trenches, especially with the strength of Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney on the interior. The Bengals' inability to stop the run was glaring in their Week 1 loss to New England, where they allowed over 5 yards per carry and could not stop Stevenson late even when there was no threat of a pass. Expect Pacheco to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Others to Consider

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle ($6,300 vs New England)

With Ken Walker III injured, Charbonnet will see most of the touches, with Kenny McIntosh elevated to the backup role. Charbonnet's size and receiving ability make him a mismatch in the passing game, as evidenced by his 30-yard receiving touchdown last week. Charbonnet totaled 157 yards and a touchdown on 38 touches in two starts for Walker last year. He’s a top-3 PPD play at the position.

Joe Mixon, Houston ($8,100 vs Chicago)

The early returns on Joe Mixon couldn’t have been more impressive. He carried the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 19 yards in a Week 1 win over the Colts. With the Texans favored on Sunday night, Mixon is in line for another heavy workload. The Bears gave up 140 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 to the Titans.

James Conner, Arizona ($6,500 vs LA Rams)

Wide Receiver

It will be hard not to roster Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel this week, given their projected usage. Kupp was targeted 21 times in Week 1 and will benefit from the absence of Puka Nacua. Samuel had 17 opportunities (carries plus targets) in his 2024 debut and will continue to benefit from the absence of Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall. Both top Kansas City wide receivers, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, look like strong plays against a Bengals defense that has been doing too much talking. They benefit from Hollywood Brown's absence. Injuries could also impact D.J. Moore's role. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are banged up, and the Bears may have to throw a bunch to keep up with the Texans on Sunday night. Most of the rookie wide receivers underperformed in Week 1, but I am fine going back to them in large-field tournaments. Malik Nabers is especially intriguing against a Washington defense that looks incapable of stopping opposing passing games. 

Core Plays

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams ($7,700 vs Arizona)

Cooper Kupp remains one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL and should be extremely popular this week, but he’s hard to fade, given his high-volume role. In Week 1, Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp a ridiculous 21 times, leading to 14 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. With Puka Nacua out, Kupp’s usage will be sky-high in what should be a favorable matchup against the Cardinals’ middling defense. Arizona lacks a strong pass rush, and their secondary struggled in Week 1, allowing Josh Allen to carve them up.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco ($7,300 vs Minnesota)

Deebo Samuel saw nine targets and eight carries in Week 1, essentially filling the role of both the top wide receiver and the number two running back behind Jordan Mason. Christian McCaffrey’s absence has thrust Samuel into even more of a dual-threat role, making him one of the best values on the slate. The potential for more red-zone carries gives Samuel a unique role and more touchdown equity than any other receiver on this slate.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City ($6,900 vs Cincinnati)

Rashee Rice emerged as the go-to target in the Chiefs' offense down the stretch last season, and he cemented that role in Week 1 with a team-high nine targets. Rice caught seven passes for 109 yards against the Ravens, firmly establishing himself as the alpha in the offense over Travis Kelce. The Chiefs will likely move him around to exploit favorable matchups, making him a strong play again this week.

Others to Consider

Malik Nabers, NY Giants ($6,400 vs Washington)

Malik Nabers is the most talented player on the Giants' offense and deserves even more opportunities, especially in an elite matchup against a struggling Washington defense. In Week 1, Nabers flashed his potential with five catches for 66 yards, and he should see a bigger role in Week 2 given the Commanders' vulnerable secondary. As noted in this week's Patching Matchups article:

If Week 1 is any indication, Washington's pass defense will continue to be a liability in 2024. Last season, they ranked 31st in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 272 passing yards per game. Six teams threw for over 300 yards against them, and 13 wide receivers posted 90-yard games or better. Their issues persisted into Week 1 of this season, where Tampa Bay's Mike Evans and Chris Godwin took turns exploiting the Commanders' secondary. Even rookie Jalen McMillan found himself wide open on a 32-yard blown coverage touchdown. The Commanders' once-feared pass rush has also been dismantled, leaving the secondary vulnerable. First-round pick Emmanuel Forbes struggled mightily as a rookie and continues to look out of sorts, while slot corner Benjamin St-Juste, who allowed more yards than any other defensive back in 2023, remains a significant liability. If any defense can make the Giants' passing game viable for fantasy, it's this one, presenting a favorable opportunity for Giants wide receivers.

D.J. Moore, Chicago ($6,800 vs Houston)

With Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze questionable, Moore is the last man standing in Chicago’s wide receiver room. He saw 8 targets in Week 1 and should be in line for more opportunities in a game script in which the Bears will likely be playing catchup. Moore has 25+ point potential if Williams and the Bears offense can get going this week.

Tight End

Aside from Isaiah Likely's big game, tight end production was miserable in Week 1. The nine and eight targets seen by Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, respectively, stand out in a sea of poor usage numbers. We can go back to either of McBride or Bowers this week, with the game scripts favoring heavy usage for both. Colby Parkinson is underpriced, given his nearly every-down role for the Rams. He is also a nice pivot in lineups without Cooper Kupp.

Core Plays

Trey McBride, Arizona ($6,200 vs LA Rams)

Trey McBride had a disappointing line of 5 catches for 30 yards in Week 1, but his usage was highly encouraging. McBride had nine targets and a 30% share of the team’s targets. He may be the safest bet for weekly target volume at the tight end position in 2024, making him a strong option in this slate.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas ($5,300 vs Baltimore)

In Week 1, Bowers played 68% of the snaps and was targeted eight times, hauling in six catches for 58 yards. The former Georgia star is widely regarded as one of the best tight end prospects in recent years, and his athleticism and ability to win after the catch make him a potential target magnet. Las Vegas should continue to get him designed touches, especially with the running game struggling. 

Others to Consider

Colby Parkinson, LA Rams ($4,800 vs Arizona)

Colby Parkinson played 88% of the snaps in Week 1 and had four catches for 47 yards. With Puka Nacua out, Parkinson will likely be one of the main supporting targets behind Cooper Kupp. His high floor, combined with his extremely low price tag, makes him a strong tournament option.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($7,400 vs Cincinnati)

Travis Kelce had a modest three catches for 34 yards in Week 1 but played 89% of the snaps. He has a good history against Cincinnati, catching seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown in their last playoff meeting in January 2023. Kelce remains a high-upside option despite his steep price tag, and this is a matchup he will be up for.

Defense

LA Chargers ($4,400) vs. Carolina

The Panthers offense looked as bad as last season in a blowout loss to the Saints in Week 1. Bryce Young continues to struggle, and the addition of Diontae Johnson does not move the needle in terms of adding a dangerous playmaker to the offense. Joey Bosa looked dominant in Week 1 against the Raiders and could have a field day against the Panthers struggling offensive line.

Houston ($4,100) vs. Chicago

Caleb Williams started his career with a win but still struggled against a middling Titans defense. He will face a step up in competition in his first road game against Houston. He may be without at least one of his top weapons. Both Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen are questionable. The Texans have a dangerous edge duo in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. and are big home favorites. We saw Williams get extremely reckless with the football at USC when the team fell behind on the scoreboard, and that sort of game script is quite possible Sunday night with Houston's offense looking dangerous.