It's always exciting when big news breaks in the NFL, and there's no better time for it than the period between free agency and the draft.
The latest example came Wednesday when the Buffalo Bills shipped star receiver Stefon Diggs off to Houston.
It's the kind of move that changes fantasy draft values.
That being the case, the Footballguys team leapt into action. Dave Kluge provided subscribers with an in-depth Instant Reaction shortly after the announcement. Jason Wood adjusted the Footballguys Projections and 2024 Draft Rankings. Sigmund Bloom followed up with more on both sides of the deal in his This Week in News article Thursday. I offered additional context in my weekly Top Five Fantasy Headlines on Friday.
Of course, this story will continue to unfold, so we'll watch it evolve and revisit it in a future Fantasy Notebook.
Along those same lines, there was more concerning NFL/fantasy-related news this past week.
According to his attorney, Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice was the driver of one of two speeding sports cars who left after causing a chain-reaction crash on a Dallas highway last weekend.
As a fantasy manager, I understand the almost reflexive desire to gain leverage based on circumstances in the moment. But I've also been around enough to know cases like this can take strange turns.
The most useful immediate action is to stay on top of the shifting and often nuanced narratives.
In cases involving legal issues, Footballguy Drew Davenport is my go-to. In addition to being one of the sharpest auction/salary cap players I know, Drew is a practicing defense attorney who examines cases of interest to fantasy managers in great detail on his X feed. Do yourself a favor and follow him (if you already haven't).
With all that out of the way -- for now -- it's time for the fun stuff. We'll get the ball rolling, as usual, with a look at an incoming NFL offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Raiders
The Raiders hired Luke Getsy, who was fired as Chicago's offensive coordinator in January, for that same role in early February.
DaVante Adams played eight seasons in Green Bay, and Getsy was on the Packers' coaching staff for seven of those seasons, including two as wide receivers coach and two more as passing game coordinator.
So Adams knows what it's like to play for Getsy and is excited to do so again in 2024.
"It was a good feeling knowing a guy I've worked with," Adams told ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez. "I know how he works, I know how his mind works, and we've had success together. So it's definitely exciting."
Getsy, 39, brings the run-heavy mentality that Raiders coach Antonio Pierce and new general manager Tom Telesco like.
Getsy was responsible for the league's Nos. 1 and 2 rushing offenses in 2022 and 2023, respectively (the Bears averaged 177.3 and 141.1 yards per game on the ground those seasons), Chicago was last in passing in 2022 (130.5) and 27th this past season (182.1). The end result was the No. 20 total offense last year.
The immediate question is whether that run-first mentality meets the overall objective . . .
A 24-Point Minimum?
In January, Pierce told reporters he wanted a "minimum 24 points" out of a new offensive coordinator. This proclamation came after the Raiders averaged 19.5 points per game under former coach Josh McDaniels and interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree.
To average 24 points, the Raiders would need to score 408 points, a mark they have hit only three times since their 2002 Super Bowl season.
The Bears averaged 21.2 points per game under Getsy last season.
Given all that, it's fair to wonder what made Pierce believe Getsy was the right man for the job.
"Listen," Pierce said, "Luke kicked our a** when we played the Bears, didn't he?"
Pierce was referring to last season's Week 7 game at Soldier Field, a matchup the Bears won 30-12 with undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent.
"That was pretty impressive," Pierce said. "He was one of the few gentlemen that we brought in that we played against that I thought we knew pretty well, and I thought he did a good job against us, scheme-wise."
Bagent kept the Raiders off balance in throwing for 162 yards and a touchdown pass while completing 21 of 29 passes. The Bears also gashed the Raiders for 173 rushing yards.
"Obviously, the running game shows up," Pierce added. "I thought the passing game, as we move forward, that's something we can improve on, Luke and the Raiders collectively."
Including their quarterback. After they decide who that is . . .
No Lip Service At QB
Last month, Gardner Minshew agreed to a two-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed in Vegas. The 27-year-old will compete with Aidan O'Connell for the starting job.
O'Connell assumed that role as a rookie last year. In the 10 games he started, the fourth-round pick threw for 2,143 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions to earn a 83.9 passer rating.
That passer rating was higher than Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell, and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young.
O'Connell finished the season with a 5-5 record as a starter.
One of his best starts came during a Week 17 loss in Indianapolis, in which he posted career highs in passing yards (299) and completions (30).
He keyed in on Adams, who had 13 receptions for 126 yards and two TDs, showcasing a connection that resembles what Getsy would like to see out of his offense in 2024.
Pierce publicly supported O'Connell's performance last season and voiced his confidence in O'Connell moving forward.
"At the end of the day, listen, Aidan O'Connell played his ass off. He did a helluva job for us," Pierce said during last month's Annual League Meeting. "You're talking about a kid that has the mental toughness to play in the National Football League. Whatever happens, and whatever we do, it has to go through Aidan O'Connell. Being honest with you because he's earned that right."
If the signing of Minshew makes Pierce's comments sound like lip service, SI.com's Hondo Carpenter is here to tell you otherwise.
During a recent appearance on my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show, The FootballDiehards, I asked Carpenter if Pierce's public commitment to O'Connell couldn't be attributed, at least in part, to standard coachspeak.
While acknowledging my skepticism was understandable, Carpenter was adamant in his response.
"I can say, as somebody who knows [Pierce] personally, considers him a friend, and covers this team every day, if he says it, that's exactly what he means," Carpenter told listeners. This kid has not done enough to anoint him the next Kenny Stabler, but he's done enough that he absolutely deserves that chance to compete with whoever they get. They all have to go through O'Connell. Pierce said that publicly, privately."
The "whoever they get" comment suggests that the Raiders could still be considering the position in this month's NFL draft. Washington's Michael Penix Jr., who is gaining momentum in some quarters, and Oregon's Bo Nix visited the team last week.
Pierce's (and Carpenter's) assurances notwithstanding, there's enough uncertainty here for fantasy managers in early best balls to avoid investing.
But, if you're so inclined, Minshew is currently available as QB32 and O'Connell as QB41 on BestBall 10s; they are QB33 and QB38, respectively, on Underdog.
We can glean two things:
Both are free-square plays for those who like to gamble on such things.
Perhaps more importantly, Carpenter might be the only one taking Pierce's comments on O'Connell at face value . . .
Should We Be Higher On White?
While the uncertainty and intrigue at quarterback justify those prices, the same isn't true of the team's running back position.
Over the last five seasons, Josh Jacobs carried the load for the Raiders. That run ended last month when the former first-round pick signed a deal with the Green Bay Packers.
I'll remind you: Jacobs led the league in rushing in 2022, accounting for nearly 80 percent of the team's carries.
He was on pace for a similar percentage last season before sustaining a quad injury, opening the door for Zamir White, selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, to show off his abilities.
White responded by averaging 114.3 yards from scrimmage per game across the team's last four contests.
While the Raiders could still add to the position in the draft, signing former Viking Alexander Mattison to a contract suggests the team is ready to continue leaning on White.
Given the current circumstances, Bloom and Cecil Lammey characterized White as a dynasty sleeper to target before the NFL Draft.
"There are moments when you're a dynasty fantasy player when there is a sigh of relief," Bloom said on The Audible last week. "I think when Mattison is your competition for carries, that means you are very bullish on White . . . The other thing you like about White is that Pierce was retained as the head coach, and we saw at the end of last year they're going to give White as much work as he can handle."
Bloom is right.
White was RB9 over the aforementioned four-game stretch with Jacobs sidelined. Still on his rookie contract, there's no reason to expect his workload to decrease.
Still, White currently sits at RB34 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, which is just a little off his RB30 Average Draft Position (ADP) on Underdog and BestBall 10s.
Can you say bargain?
Packers Will Lean On Jacobs With Plenty Of Love
Speaking of Jacobs . . . If you were surprised by the Packers releasing Aaron Jones and signing the former Raider on March 11, the very first day of the legal tampering period, you weren't alone.
"It kind of caught me off-guard, to be honest," Packers coach Matt LaFleur told the media at last week's Annual League Meeting.
According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, LaFleur wasn't claiming he was kept entirely in the dark about his team's plans. Still, he said the acquisition of an All-Pro running back and the subsequent release of one of the greatest running backs in team history happened quickly.
"Certainly, I knew there were some other things in play with Jones," LaFleur said about the Packers looking to restructure the veteran back's contract again. "I didn't quite know how everything was going to go. It just happened really fast."
While LaFleur might have been caught off guard by the news, he quickly figured things out. He acknowledges the addition of a player like Jacobs has him "super-excited."
"I just think when you look at his body of work, his play style, his running style, he'll excel (in all situations)," LaFleur said. "There are some things we can do in the pass game as well."
As I explained in a recent Top Five Fantasy Headlines, all this makes total sense.
With Jones, the Packers had an explosive back capable of making big plays on the ground and through the air. While they are different players, Jacobs has that same ability.
SI.com's Bill Huber laid it all out by noting over the past five years, Jacobs ranks fifth among running backs with 127 carries of 10-plus yards.
Jones is seventh with 113, per Stathead.
Of course, Jones has two seasons of 50-plus receptions -- 52 in 2021 and 59 in 2022.
But wait . . . So does Jacobs, with 54 in 2021 and 53 in 2022.
That's why LaFleur believes Jacobs can be a significant factor in his offense.
"He can be a high-volume guy," the coach said. "Just studying him, I think there's more out there for him in regards to the passing game, using him out of the backfield. He's put some really good choice routes on tape. That's something we always try to get to. We've done it a little bit more down in the red area."
I should concede Jacobs' next touchdown catch will be his first as a pro. But I'll also point out he's one of four players with 50-plus rushing yards per game and 20-plus receiving yards per game each of the last three seasons.
The others? Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jones.
As we call it around here, "good company."
With a clear path to a featured role and the likelihood of being a legitimate contributor in the passing game, Jacobs has moved up to RB7 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, and his current late-third to early-fourth-round price tag in best-ball drafts is right in line with that.
It helps that he'll be working alongside a rising star at quarterback . . .
A Whole Lotta Love . . . For Love
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper framed it, no one knew quite what to expect from the Packers heading into the 2023 season because Jordan Love was a new starter at quarterback, and the team was inexperienced in several other areas after bringing an end to the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay.
After 14 games, it looked like the season would end in disappointment as the team was 6-8 and seemingly out of the playoff race.
But they saved their best play for the end run.
Three straight wins to close the regular season got them into the playoffs, and Love led a rout of the Cowboys in Dallas to open the postseason. It ended with a tough 24-21 loss at the 49ers the next week, but the late-season success gave the Packers considerable hope for the future.
Likewise, fantasy managers have ample reason for optimism.
In his first year as a starter, Love completed 64.2 percent of his throws for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also rushed for 247 yards with four TDs.
Love then completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 466 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks in two playoff games.
More importantly, he made that progress while working with a talented but inexperienced group of wideouts . . .
Keeping Them In Play
Christian Watson missed eight games last year due to hamstring injuries. The Packers are trying to keep that from happening again.
LaFleur explained this week that Watson visited a lab in Madison to solve the issue.
"They've got some special lab there or whatever that all the medical guys can give you the better diagnosis on [Watson]," LaFleur told Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. "But yeah, we've looked at a lot of different things in terms of just his body comp and maybe areas that were stronger than others to try to help get us in front of that."
Beyond that, LaFleur also suggested that he and the Packers' new strength and conditioning staff have examined the team's practice and training loads to help lessen soft-tissue injuries such as hamstring pulls.
LaFleur fired strength and conditioning coach Chris Gizzi this offseason and hired former San Francisco 49ers strength and conditioning assistant Aaron Hill.
"I know (Watson) is working his tail off right now down in Florida, trying to make sure that he comes in the best shape possible," LaFleur said. "Certainly, we looked at elements of the things that we can control because, I mean, soft-tissue injuries happen in our sport.
"It's like, how can we mitigate those?"
Pulling that off and having Watson on the field for every possible game would be great.
Watson had 28 catches for 422 yards and five touchdowns in 2023, his second NFL season. But fantasy managers would love to see a return to the form that led to a seven-touchdown output over a four-week stretch during his 2022 rookie campaign.
Which brings us to an interesting point: How should we value this receiving corps with a rising talent in Love running LaFleuer's highly productive offense?
No Packers receiver gained more than 793 receiving yards last year; rookie Jayden Reed was the leader with that number.
Our initial Footballguys Draft Rankings have Reed at WR39, Romeo Doubs at WR49, Watson is our WR54, and Dontayvian Wicks is WR89.
All are capable of delivering high-end totals any given week. All are reasonably priced.
In particular, however, Watson and Doubs are making it into the double-digit rounds as WR4-level investments.
Wicks is often avaialble as a WR6.
Being old, mean, and cheap, I will have a lot of Wicks.
But Watson, given his size, speed, and previously demonstrated upside, is tempting at cost, and I, for one, am rooting for the science to win out here . . .
The Importance Of Actions
One last note here . . . The Packers signed Love to a one-year contract extension through the 2024 season instead of exercising his fifth-year option, so he's scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025.
But as PFT's Myles Simmons suggests, it's highly unlikely Love will ever enter the open market.
Last Monday, general manager Brian Gutekunst said the team had already started talking with Love's representatives about an extension.
"There's been some, obviously, preliminary discussions," Gutekunst said via Ryan Wood of PackersNews.com. "But we want to do it the right way. And certainly, the sooner, the better. But at the same time, we want to make sure we do it the right way.
"So, it's started. But it's not something that's going to go quickly, I don't think."
Love's success brings up something I talked about a lot last summer. Fantasy managers were skeptical of the QB, mostly because he was an unknown commodity.
I argued Love was only unknown to us.
The Packers, meanwhile, clearly knew what they had. Even if the relationship had soured, it's hard to imagine team officials letting Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP with a Super Bowl win under his belt, walk out the door without having a viable plan to replace him.
That's why the team has no misgivings about signing the Love to a lucrative, long-term deal, even though he's started just 18 regular-season games and two postseason contests.
"In every contract extension, draft pick decision you make, there's a ton of risk and all that. It's just part of it," Gutekunst said. "At the same time, I think the nice thing about having a guy in your building for the last four years is you absolutely know who he is."
Their actions reflected that all along.
It's something we should remember when looking at situations like this from the outside . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I appreciate your time and look forward to meeting you in this spot next week to delve into more situations of great fantasy interest.
And who knows? Maybe some more blockbuster news. See you then.
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