Contract Terms
Stefon Diggs is being traded from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans. The Texans will give up a 2025 second-round pick 2025, and the Bills will give Stefon Diggs, a 2025 fifth, and a 2024 sixth, per Ian Rapoport.
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Fantasy Football Impact
After years of quietly expressing a desire for a trade, Stefon Diggs finally gets his wish. And he gets paired with a young and ascending talent in C.J. Stroud. Diggs enters his age-31 season, coming off the worst of his four years in Buffalo. Diggs started each of the past two seasons on fire, showing that he is still one of the league's best receivers, only to cool off as the year progressed. In Weeks 1-13 of 2022 and 2023, Diggs averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game. And from Week 14 onward, just 8.5. His late-season disappearing acts may have something to do with this trade. Moving a former superstar inside the conference to an up-and-coming contender may give us insight into how the Bills feel about Diggs' future. And while he might not be the same player he once was, he lands in a situation that makes the Texans contenders after an expected 2023 breakout.
While Diggs may appear to be on the decline, there's still reason to believe he has some good years left in the tank. He's logged 1,000-plus receiving yards in six straight seasons. He's hauled in double-digit touchdowns in two of the last three years. Since the trade to Buffalo in 2020, he's averaged a whopping 9.9 targets per game. Prior to Week 14 last year, he was one of the league's most productive receivers. His struggles late in the season had more to do with a change in offensive philosophy than anything else. Diggs was still getting open, but the team skewed more run-heavy, while rookie Dalton Kincaid saw more first reads. Diggs is a well-rounded receiver who can win at any level of the field. He can make plays after the catch and fight through contact to make contested catches. And his ability to get open quickly off the line is great for a quarterback's development, as seen with Josh Allen in 2020.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell were both productive last year, but a target hog like Diggs likely sits atop the pecking order for now, at least to start the season.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
The biggest winner from this transaction is, without question, C.J. Stroud. Stroud had a phenomenal rookie season. His lead receivers were Nico Collins (who hadn't done much in his first two seasons) and Tank Dell (an undersized third-rounder). Not to discredit Collins or Dell, but no one had them pegged as an elite duo before the season kicked off. While talented in their own respect, they benefited from Stroud's prowess. Now, the Diggs, Collins, and Dell trio has become one of the league's best. The versatility of these receivers gives the Texans' staff plenty of room for creativity.
Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell 2023 Alignment
| Player | Slot Snap % | Wide Snap % |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 35.7% | 63.1% |
| Nico Collins | 20.1% | 79.7% |
| Tank Dell | 28.7% | 70.1% |
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can keep defenses guessing on every snap. All three receivers have a deep skillset to win short, deep, outside, or across the middle. And that bodes very well for Stroud's expected leap in Year 2. Stroud is currently being drafted as the QB6 but could quickly jump Anthony Richardson and end up alongside Patrick Mahomes II in the QB4/QB5 tier.
Of course, the paths for Collins and Dell to be as productive as they were in 2023 become much narrower. The passing pie in Houston will grow, but Diggs is expected to cut a big slice for himself. All three receivers should coexist, but there could be some volatility in week-to-week scoring from the bunch. Two's a party, three's a crowd.
If adding Diggs to Houston makes Stroud the biggest winner, Buffalo's Josh Allen is the biggest loser, at least for now. However, possessing a first-round pick in a draft class flush with wide receiver talent could quickly quiet those concerns. Expect Brian Thomas Jr., Troy Franklin, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Worthy to be on the Bills' Day 1 radar.
After the firing of Ken Dorsey last year, offensive coordinator Joe Brady turned the offensive focus to James Cook and Dalton Kincaid. With Diggs now out of Buffalo, expect those two to remain key figures in 2024, even with the anticipated addition of a first-round receiver. Khalil Shakir also showed some promise at the end of the 2023 season and could be in line for a more significant workload. Curtis Samuel had a career year with Joe Brady in Washington, but he's likely to slot in as a tertiary option. Kincaid is the clear winner in Buffalo. Few tight ends are in a position to lead their team in targets, and Kincaid has the opportunity to do just that in 2024.
Fantasy Football Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
Stefon Diggs may be entering the twilight of his career, and his most productive years are likely behind him. However, sharing the load with the talented duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell should assist C.J. Stroud in entering the NFL's elite tier of quarterbacks in his sophomore season. Josh Allen will be without his safety blanket for the first time since his breakout in 2020, but Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, and an expected first-round rookie should set him up for continued future success.
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