Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Steelers
Pittsburgh is in the perfect spot to optimize the running back position. George Pickens missed last week and will likely miss more time, their lone notable passing game weapon on the outside. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split the backfield, but both see strong usage within the committee as the Steelers can play low-scoring games and temper opposing offenses. They have been consistently on the rise in HLO, up to No.8 on the season and with three straight top-five weekly finishes. Harris and Warren are both lineup-viable in the playoffs but title-winning players if the other misses time.
Lions
Detroit has been one of the elite HLO teams when combined with their talent level. Similar to Pittsburgh, but a stronger version, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have 20-point upside in any game together but also league-winning upside with a clarified start without the other in the lineup. The Lions have three weekly finishes outside the top 12 all season.
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers, along with the Steelers, have been the strongest HLO team over the past month. Bucky Irving missed time in-game in Week 14, and Rachaad White surged to an elite game. This is another committee where the in-game upside is pronounced even if one running back misses a drive or two within the committee. Both are RB2 types for lineups with RB1 upside, which is notable as Bucky Irving is working through multiple injuries heading into the fantasy playoffs.
The Bad
Cowboys
The good news is Rico Dowdle has been on the rise with his market share of the backfield while Dallas has been respectable on offense of late. The bad news is Dallas has been below-average in HLO in four of their last five outings and is a dreadful 31st in goal-line carries on the season. Dowdle is getting little help from the situation before his offseason free agency. Also, Ezekiel Elliott is not even worth a roster spot in most formats due to a lack of upside.
Vikings
Aaron Jones is an overt playmaker, but Minnesota's HLO is holding Jones (and Cam Akers) back. They have one week with a better HLO finish than 12th since Week 1 and generally toil in the 20s on a weekly basis. They are 20th in goal-line carries and 25th in targets as the offense is now running through two strong wide receivers and T.J. Hockenson returning midseason.
The Ugly
Jaguars
Jacksonville has been the worst HLO team over the past six weeks. Mac Jones starting has not helped matters. Plus, the messy committee between Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby siphons away market share from both, making them flex options at best entering the fantasy postseason.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
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