Thanksgiving is all about family, food, and of course, football! Whether you're sneaking away from the table to check your lineups or watching the games surrounded by loved ones, this holiday slate is a unique opportunity to combine two of the best parts of the season. In this guide, we’ll break down everything you need to dominate your DFS contests—both Showdown and Classic formats. From player recommendations to game strategies, this article has you covered so you can enjoy the action on the field without missing a beat. Let’s turn turkey day into payday!
Overall Strategy- Written by Devin Knotts
For a three game slate, these tend to be some of the most unpredictable slates of the season. The reason is that there are a massive number of entries with upwards of 600,000 entries in the largest contest. With that many entries in a contest, you're going to need to be almost perfect to win the GPP. One strategy that has worked over the last several seasons is to try to avoid game stacking where possible. Far too often, on these short slates, we will see two things. 1) People completely stacking the three games maximizing the number of players in a single game, and 2) People stacking the first game more than the other two games simply because they want to see themselves get out to an early lead and have a green number next to "currently winning". The first strategy is a particularly bad one. By maximizing a game stack meaning play 7 or 8 players from the same lineup, you're greatly decreasing your upside. While you may get every touchdown in that game, every touchdown that is scored is a touchdown that is not scored by the other 6 or 7 players on your roster. The other issue is that uniqueness becomes a factor. With 500k entries in a contest, there are going to be many people who end up doing this for each of the games, therefore limiting your upside completely as even if a game has the right script fo rit to work with 11 touchdowns scored or some crazy number, you'll still be tied with a lot of your new friends who had the same idea as you and you'll share the prize pool with them.
If you're only building one or a couple of lineups, try to game plan how you could see the games playing out. Once you've built out the game scripts, then try to see how that will impact the various players in those games. For example, if you believe that Miami will struggle in the cold, that could lead to shorter passing and more of a run-heavy approach for the Dolphins. If you believe that the Giants passing offense will improve under Drew Lock, then taking a shootout potential game between Lock and Rush could make sense with the lowest scoring game on the slate. There's almost always a game that the public is just wrong on
Should you play cash games? This is a question that gets asked quite a bit, and the answer most of the time is no unless you're looking for entertainment and want more of a one vs. one matchup to be able to track throughout the day. This week, more than year's past does not have one cash game optimal build, so you could do it as there are a variety of different choice options particularly at quarterback between going cheap with a Drew Lock/Cooper Rush, or spending up to a Jared Goff with Caleb Williams in the middle. At running back, most people are going to have both Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Rico Dowdle while at wide receiver a large number taking Nabers, Lamb, and a cheap wide receiver to be able to fit in Jonnu Smith and a player like Josh Jacobs at $7k.
Early Game: Chicago at Detroit (Lee)
Through 12 weeks of football, no NFC team boasts a better record than the 10-1 Detroit Lions. Vegas oddsmakers predict this NFC North clash to be a one-sided affair, with the Lions heavily favored over the 4-7 Chicago Bears. The league's 2024 number-one draft pick, Caleb Williams, has delivered moments of brilliance this season, including a standout 340-yard performance last Sunday in a thrilling game against the Vikings. However, Williams faces a tough challenge against a dominant Lions squad. Read on for a deeper dive into the game and the key DFS options to consider.
Injury Considerations: The Detroit Lions have placed wide receiver Khalif Raymond on injured reserve due to a foot injury sustained during their recent game against the Indianapolis Colts. Prior to his injury, Raymond was averaging approximately 20 snaps per game. In his absence, it's anticipated that Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson II will see increased playing time. Patrick has been more involved in the offense, absorbing 4-5 times the number of snaps when compared to Robinson. Given this higher usage, Patrick presents a more appealing option for DFS formats, especially considering his marginally higher cost relative to Robinson.
Gamescript & Analysis: Since their Week 7 bye, the Chicago Bears have suffered five consecutive losses, with three of those defeats decided by a field goal or less. Despite these close contests, they enter this game as 10-point underdogs to the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. This significant line likely reflects the Lions' recent dominance, having outscored their opponents 76-12 over the past two weeks. I anticipate a continuation of this trend, with Detroit excelling on both sides of the ball in front of a national audience. PREDICTION: Detroit 33, Chicago 13.
GPP Plays: Among the Bears' options, Rome Odunze stands out as a compelling choice. Despite his consistent involvement in Chicago's offense, he's the most affordable Bears receiver and is due for positive scoring regression, having not reached the end zone since late September. Given the anticipated game script, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are also viable considerations; however, their recent success has elevated both their popularity and cost, which I try to avoid in DFS contests.
On the Detroit side, the entire offense is viable across all DFS formats. This includes Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, both of whom have underperformed relative to their talent this season. A noteworthy low-owned option is Tim Patrick, who is expected to see increased opportunities following Khalif Raymond's placement on injured reserve. Patrick is among my top tournament plays on this slate due to his relative obscurity, affordable price, and expanded role within a high-scoring offense.
Showdown Captain Picks: For your Captain slot, you can confidently eliminate any of the Bears as options due to their lack of upside compared to the Lions' top-scoring offense. This narrows your choices to three strong candidates for Showdown contests: 1) Jahmyr Gibbs, 2) Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 3) Jared Goff.
Jahmyr Gibbs earns the edge over his backfield partner, David Montgomery, primarily because Montgomery injured his shoulder last Sunday and has been limited in practice leading up to this game. It’s plausible that the usual 50/50 workload split tilts more heavily in Gibbs’ favor, especially in a gamescript that should prioritize the run for Detroit. The Bears' run-funnel defense further boosts Gibbs’ fantasy potential, making him a strong Captain pick.
If Gibbs doesn’t appeal to you, don’t let the Bears' defensive rankings against the pass (see chart above) deter you from targeting the Lions’ aerial attack. The Bears haven’t faced an elite quarterback this season—and Jared Goff may not quite be ‘elite’—he has the tools to deliver high-end fantasy production. Chief among them is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had an impressive streak of eight consecutive games with a touchdown before being held scoreless last Sunday against the Colts. St. Brown remains a top-tier option in this matchup, with a high ceiling for fantasy success.
Kickers and Defense: The Detroit Lions' defense presents a compelling option against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, who may be tasked with over 40 pass attempts in this matchup. Rookie quarterbacks often experience growing pains, leading to potential turnovers and defensive scoring opportunities.
Kicker Jake Bates offers a cost-effective choice for Showdown contests. If the game unfolds as Vegas odds suggest, Bates could see increased action in the second half. Notably, he has maintained a perfect field goal record this season, including 5-for-5 on attempts beyond 50 yards. In contrast, it's advisable to fade the Bears' kicker, Cairo Santos, as his opportunities may diminish if Chicago falls behind late in the game.
Afternoon Game: NY Giants at Dallas (Lee)
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