Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns - Over/Under 47.5
- Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 46.5
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 47.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 46.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 44.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Denver Broncos at home vs Tennessee Titans - Implied Team Total 24.5
- Arizona Cardinals on road against New Orleans Saints - Implied Team Total 24
- Washington Commanders at home vs New York Giants - Implied Team Total 26
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | vs Giants | $7,000 |
| 2 | Drake Maye | vs Raiders | $5,500 |
Jayden Daniels led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (864) in Weeks 1-17 as a rookie. He ranked ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and led a Commanders offense that ranked tenth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), 11th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Daniels is at home against an improved Giants defense, but there wasn't any place to go but up, as New York ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Drake Maye ranked eighth at the quarterback position in rushing yards (421) through Weeks 1-17, and he only played in 12 games and started 11 games over that stretch. He's a dynamic dual-threat who received upgrades at both offensive coordinator and receiver this offseason. He's affordably priced at $5,500 and gets to play at home against an average defense.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Brown | at Browns | $6,600 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | vs Buccaneers | $8,000 |
| 3 | Bucky Irving | at Falcons | $7,100 |
| 4 | Josh Jacobs | vs Lions | $6,700 |
| 5 | Chuba Hubbard | at Jaguars | $6,000 |
The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites, and Chase Brown gets to attack a Browns defense that ranked 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed last year. Brown's role is elite for fantasy football. In his last eight games without Zack Moss last season, Brown averaged 24.4 opportunities per game (Would've led the NFL over the full season) and 116.3 total yards per game (Would've ranked third over the full season).
The Falcons are at home, and Bijan Robinson will attack a Buccaneers defense that ranked 21st in EPA/Play Allowed last year. Robinson ranked sixth in opportunities per game (21.4), fourth in total yards per game (107.1), and ninth in total touchdowns (13) last season.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites despite playing on the road. Bucky Iriving snatched the workhorse role away from Rachaad White last season. In Irving's last six healthy games, including the playoffs, he averaged 21.8 opportunities per game (Would've ranked sixth over the full season), 124.5 total yards per game (Would've ranked second over the full season), and scored four touchdowns over that span as well.
The Packers are 2.5-point home favorites, and Josh Jacobs ranked seventh in opportunities per game (21.1), eighth in total yards per game (101.6), and sixth in total touchdowns (15) last season.
The Panthers at Jaguars is the number one game to attack in tournaments in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard is one of many offensive players who benefit. He gets to attack a Jaguars defense that ranked 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed in 2024. He's a workhorse who ranked eighth in opportunities per game (20.3) and 15th in total yards per game (91.1) last year.
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Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | at Browns | $8,100 |
| 2 | Emeka Egbuka | at Falcons | $4,600 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | at Falcons | $6,600 |
| 4 | Ricky Pearsall | at Seahawks | $4,500 |
| 5 | Chris Olave | vs Cardinals | $5,100 |
Ja'Marr Chase won the Triple Crown last season, leading the NFL in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17). Cincinnati's defense still stinks, so Joe Burrow and the offense will have to keep their foot on the gas and will find success in a great matchup against a Browns defense that ranked 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed last year. Chase is the WR1 on the slate.
Emeka Egbuka was an awesome prospect drafted 19th overall. The only concern in year one was the target competition with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all talented players in their own right. Things have broken well for Egbuka as Godwin and McMillan will both miss the beginning of the season with injuries. Egbuka is a smash cash play priced at just $4,600 playing in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a good matchup against a Falcons defense that ranked just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed in 2024.
Mike Evans also benefits from the absences of both Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan and is not aggressively priced for a player of his stature. Evans ranked fourth in the NFL in touchdown receptions (11) last season.
Things started to click for Ricky Pearsall at the end of last season. He caught 8 of 10 targets for 141 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 17 and caught 6 of 8 targets for 69 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 18. He's reportedly had an awesome offseason, and Brock Purdy himself has reported that Pearsall has grown tremendously as a route runner and is getting on the same page with him. Pearsall is priced at a very palatable $4,500.
Chris Olave is priced at just $5,100 despite the fact that the Saints project to have to throw a lot in this matchup as 5.5-point underdogs. The matchup is ideal as the Cardinals' defense ranked 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed last year.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Warren | vs Dolphins | $4,400 |
| 2 | Juwan Johnson | vs Cardinals | $3,300 |
| 3 | Theo Johnson | at Commanders | $3,000 |
Tyler Warren was drafted 14th overall after dominating collegiate football last season. Warren put up 1,451 total yards and 12 total touchdowns in 2024 and ranked second at the position in missed tackles forced (19) and third at the position in contested catches (13). He projects to be a full-time player and target hog for Daniel Jones right away. This is a matchup against an average at best Dolphins defense that doesn't scare us.
Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau will both begin the season on PUP. Juwan Johnson signed a 3-year $30.75 million contract extension this offseason and projects as a near full-time player, at least until his tight end teammates return. Priced at just $3,300 in a game the Saints project to be throwing while playing from behind, the athletic former receiver is a strong cash option that allows you to allocate more dollars to running backs and wide receivers.
Theo Johnson has intimidating size, even for NFL standards, at 6’ 6” and 259 pounds. And he’s one of the most athletic tight ends the NFL has ever seen. At that size, he ran a 4.57 40-yard dash and a 4.19 shuttle and posted a 39.5” vertical and 10’ 05” broad jump. All of those athletic measurements are elite. As a rookie, Johnson played between 71% and 90% of the offensive snaps in all 12 of his games. He caught 29 of 43 targets for 331 yards and 1 touchdown last year and was heating up before his injury, seeing four or more targets and catching three or more passes in all of his final five games. Johnson projects to be a near full-time player against an average Commanders pass defense as the Giants are 6.5-point road underdogs and project to be in a passing game script.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos D/ST | vs Titans | $3,800 |
| 2 | Jets D/ST | vs Steelers | $2,800 |
| 3 | Texans D/ST | at Rams | $2,500 |
The Brocnos are 7.5-point home favorites. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and get to attack rookie Cam Ward in his first NFL start.
The Jets are priced affordably at $2,800 and get to play at home against 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and a Steelers offense featuring some of the most uninspiring weapons in the NFL.
The Texans are affordable at $2,500, allowing salary flexibility in cash. Houston's defense ranked third best in EPA/Play Allowed last season, and now gets to rush a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who is dealing with a legitimately concerning back injury.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | at Browns | $6,900 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | vs Panthers | $5,300 |
| 3 | Bryce Young | at Jaguars | $5,700 |
| 4 | Joe Flacco | vs Bengals | $4,900 |
Joe Burrow led the NFL in passing yards per game (290.1) and pass touchdowns per game (2.6) last season. He led a Bengals offense that ranked fourth in EPA/Play, first in EDPF, and first in PROE. Cincinnati's defense still stinks, so Burrow and the offense will have to keep their foot on the gas and will find success in a great matchup against a Browns defense that ranked 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed last year. The Bengals have emphasized their desire to start the season hot after not doing so last season, and it played a role in their not making the playoffs. Burrow actually played in the preseason to shake off some rust. He's the clear QB1 on this slate.
The Panthers at Jaguars is the number one game to attack in tournaments in Week 1. Both offenses project to be much improved, which could lead to a shootout, and many great pieces on both sides of the ball are affordably priced. Trevor Lawrence ($5,300) is throwing to two elite receivers and has Liam Coen calling plays. He's at home against a Panthers defense that ranked dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed last year. Bryce Youing ($5,700) was phenomenal last season from Weeks 8-18 after returning from his early-season benching. Over that span, Young ranked seventh in PFF's Passing Grade, second in Big Time Throws (26), eighth in Average Depth of Target (9.3), and had the 11th lowest pressure-to-sack percentage (14.9%). He gets to attack a Jaguars defense that ranked 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last year.
In 2023, Joe Flacco, paired with Kevin Stefanski on the Cleveland Browns, led the NFL in passing yards per game (323.2) and pass touchdowns per game (2.6). Flacco is now back with the Browns and gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Cleveland's top running back draft pick is still unsigned, and the Browns' offense ranked second in EDPF and sixth in PROE last season. Flacco is priced at just $4,900 and will be slinging it.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | at Seahawks | $7,300 |
| 2 | James Conner | at Saints | $6,100 |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara | vs Cardinals | $6,300 |
| 4 | Jonathan Taylor | vs Dolphins | $6,800 |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | at packers | $7,700 |
| 6 | Ken Walker III | vs 49ers | $5,900 |
| 7 | Ashton Jeanty | at Patriots | $7,000 |
Christian McCaffrey is reportedly healthy. The last time we saw him operating at 100% he ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) in 2023. Don't wait to "see" how he looks this season. Get out in front of it and play one of the best fantasy assets while others are slow to react.
James Conner is viewed as a "boring" play by the masses, but that absolutely should not be the perception in Week 1. The Carduials are 5.5-point favorites despite playing on the road because they're facing what projects to be one of the worst teams in the league. Conner ranked 15th in opportunities per game (18.2) and tenth in total yards per game (94.3) last season, and gets to attack a Saints defense that ranked 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed in 2024. Conner's ceiling case is as high as any other Week 1 running back.
Alvin Kamara's season-long outlook is murky due to the projected macro-level struggles of the Saints as a team. But we don't have to worry about that in Week 1. Kamara is at home against an admittedly improved Cardinals defensive unit, but it is worth noting they ranked 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed last season. There is little reason to project that the talented dual-threat won't be massively involved out of the gate, as he ranked third in opportunities per game (22.6) and sixth in total yards per game (106.6) in 2024.
The Colts are 1.5-point home favorites, which paints a solid picture of a game script that would allow Jonathan Taylor to dominate should it come to fruition. Taylor ranked second in opportunities per game (22.9) and fifth in total yards per game (106.7) last season. The Dolphins' defense ranked middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed in 2024, and there is little reason to believe their defense improved this offseason.
Jahmyr Gibbs is an incredibly talented big-play machine. Last season, he ranked third in 10+ yard runs (41), first in 15+ yard runs (25), fifth in missed tackles forced (63), and eighth in yards after contact (834). He ranked third in total yards per game (109.9) and second in total touchdowns (16) last year. There is a chance the Lions' new offensive coordinator leans even more into Gibbs' utilization in an important divisional contest.
Ken Walker III is priced nicely for a player who projects as a workhorse in Week 1 in an offense that will lean on the run game. Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak has stated multiple times this offseason that he's going to lean on Walker. The Seahawks are at home, and the 49ers' defense ranked 26th in Rush EPA Allowed last year.
Many competitors you're competing against will want to "see it before they believe it." Week 1 provides an amazing opportunity for those willing to get out in front of the crowd. Ashton Jeanty will be somewhat low-owned due to this phenomenon and his high price tag. Jeanty was the sixth overall pick in the draft and projects to be the heartbeat of the Raiders' offense, led by Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, two coaches with long track records of successful rushing offenses. The matchup is nice against a Patriots defense that ranked 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed last year.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake London | vs Buccaneers | $6,500 |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | at Commanders | $7,000 |
| 3 | Brian Thomas Jr. | vs Panthers | $6,800 |
| 4 | Travis Hunter | vs Panthers | $5,000 |
| 5 | Tetairoa McMillan | at Jaguars | $5,200 |
| 6 | Tee Higgins | at Browns | $6,400 |
| 7 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | vs 49ers | $5,800 |
| 8 | Jerry Jeudy | vs Bengals | $5,400 |
| 9 | Cedric Tillman | vs Bengals | $4,400 |
| 10 | Jaylen Waddle | at Colts | $5,700 |
The Falcons are at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Drake London’s stat lines in three games with Michael Penix Jr. as the starter at the end of last season:
- Week 16: 8 targets, 5 catches, 59 yards
- Week 17: 13 targets, 7 catches, 106 yards
- Week 18: 18 targets!, 10 catches, 187 yards, 2 TDs
London could go nuclear against a Buccaneers defense that ranked just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed in 2024.
Malik Nabers led the NFL in targets per game (11.6) and ranked fourth in percentage share of a team's air yards (40.9%) last season. He projects to see elite volume against an average Commanders pass defense as the Giants are 6.5-point road underdogs and project to be in a passing game script.
The Panthers at Jaguars is the number one game to attack in tournaments in Week 1. Both offenses project to be much improved, which could lead to a shootout, and many great pieces on both sides of the ball are affordably priced. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter both get to play at home against a Panthers defense that ranked dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed last year. Thomas had a phenomenal rookie season in 2024, ranking sixth at wide receiver in yards per route run (2.45). And Hunter is the quintessential tournament play in Week 1, as many will want to see it before they believe it, as they mistakenly worry about his dual-threat usage despite Jacksonville signaling all offseason they're going to prioritize him on offense. Hunter is an incredible talent priced at just $5,000.
In the same game, Tetairoa McMillan gets to attack a Jaguars defense that ranked 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last year. Adam Thielen was recently traded, and Jalen Coker was just put on short-term Injured Reserve. The eighth overall pick in the draft offers a strong floor and ceiling combination in this fantastic matchup and game environment.
Tee Higgins was the WR6 in DraftKings points per game (19.1) last season. Ja'Marr Chase is incredible, but Higgins is awesome in his own right and capable of producing as Joe Burrow's WR1 in any given week. The Bengals' passing offense offers a lot of upside in this spot. Cincinnati's defense still stinks, so Joe Burrow and the offense will have to keep their foot on the gas and will find success in a great matchup against a Browns defense that ranked 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed last year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in his second season, catching 100 of 137 targets for 1,130 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are now gone, and Cooper Kupp, who the Rams just gave up on, is now the WR2 in Seattle. Smith-Njigba projects to see a ton of target volume this season and is priced at just $5,800 at home in a competitive divisional matchup against a 49ers defense that ranked middle of the pack in EPA/Play Allowed in 2024.
In 2023, Joe Flacco, paired with Kevin Stefanski on the Cleveland Browns, led the NFL in passing yards per game (323.2) and pass touchdowns per game (2.6). Flacco is now back with the Browns and gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Cleveland's top running back draft pick is still unsigned, and the Browns' offense ranked second in EDPF and sixth in PROE last season. This bodes very well for both Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, who are both extremely affordably priced. Tillman is an extremely fun tournament play. His usage was elite in four healthy games after Amari Cooper was traded:
| Week | Snap% | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs |
| Week 7 | 82% | 12 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Week 8 | 90% | 9 | 7 | 99 | 2 |
| Week 9 | 96% | 11 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Week 11 | 96% | 8 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
Tyreek Hill quit on the team at the end of last season and is trying to work his way back into the good graces of his head coach and quarterback. Jonnu Smith was traded. Jaylen Waddle has a chance to get off to a hot start in the dome in Indianapolis against a Colts defense that ranked middle of the pack in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Waddle is being underrated because of a down year in 2024 due to a knee injury that cost him Weeks 16 and 17 and due to Tua Tagovailoa's concussion that cost him four games. Waddle is a young, elite athlete who has already produced in the NFL on both volume (104 catches in 2021) and efficiency (1,356 receiving yards in 2022).
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers | at Patriots | $6,500 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | at Saints | $6,200 |
| 3 | George Kittle | at Seahawks | $5,800 |
| 4 | David Njoku | vs Bengals | $4,700 |
| 5 | Tucker Kraft | vs Lions | $4,000 |
| 6 | Brenton Strange | vs Panthers | $3,300 |
Brock Bowers was an incredible prospect and immediately dominated in the NFL. Bowers ranks in the entire NFL in 2024, including wide receivers: 10th in targets per game (9), sixth in receptions per game (6.8), and 17th in receiving yards per game (71.5). He's a transcendent talent and the TE1 on this slate, offering elite upside.
Trey McBride's ranks in the entire NFL in 2024, including wide receivers: eighth in targets per game (9.1) and 15th in receiving yards per game (72.1). Like Brock Bowers, McBride offers a similar elite weekly ceiling to the wide receiver ones. He's in a great spot here against a Saints defense that only ranked 26th in EPA/Play Allowed last season.
George Kittle's ranks in the entire NFL in 2024, including wide receivers: just 49th in targets per game (6.5) but 10th in receiving yards per game (77.1). Kittle is an insanely elite talent who can dominate with efficiency, but target volume is also possible here after Jauan Jennings missed almost all of training camp and preseason due to a holdout. Seattle has a formidable defense, but the competitive nature of this divisional matchup can push for ceiling outcomes.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steelers D/ST | at Jets | $3,300 |
| 2 | Cardinals D/ST | at Saints | $3,500 |
The Steelers' defense ranked sixth best in EPA/Play Allowed in 2024 and gets to face off against one of the worst projected offenses in the NFL this season. To make matters worse, the Jets' offense lost its best offensive lineman, guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, to a season-ending injury just days ago.
The Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites despite playing on the road. The Saints project as one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and are starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback, who threw more interceptions (5) last season than touchdowns (4).
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Trevor Lawrence and Travis Hunter
- Runback Option: Tetairoa McMillan
- Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and either Tee Higgins or Chase Brown
- Runback Options: David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, and/or Jerry Jeudy
- Joe Flacco and David Njoku
- Runback Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and/or Chase Brown
- James Conner and Cardinals D/ST