Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations, enabling you to identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much they're favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
For the second week in a row, the visualization is a bit messy because several teams are favored by the exact same amount and have nearly identical team totals. To make things clearer, let's again group the top offenses into buckets.
High-total, heavy favorites
Three teams are favored by more than a field goal with team totals north of 25:
- Steelers: 5.5-point favorites over Cincinnati with a strong 27.5-point team total.
- Bills: 5.5-point favorites over Tampa Bay with a 26.5-point team total.
- Packers: 7.0-point favorites over the Giants with a 25.3-point team total.
These game scripts should set up especially well for the running backs — Jaylen Warren, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs.
High-total, small favorites
Three other teams are favored by three points or less but also carry team totals above 25:
- Vikings: Favored by 3.0 against Chicago with a 25.8 team total.
- Rams: Favored by 2.5 versus Seattle with a 25.5 team total.
- 49ers: Favored by 2.5 against Arizona with a 25.5 team total.
With these matchups projecting as potential shootouts, both the running backs and key pieces of the passing games are in play. Aaron Jones Sr. could be one of the chalkier options this week, while Puka Nacua and Christian McCaffrey remain top targets despite their high salaries.
Heavy favorites with modest totals
Two teams are favored by at least a touchdown but have team totals under 24:
- Ravens: 7.5-point favorites against Cleveland with a 23.5-point team total versus one of the league's best defenses.
- Texans: 7.0-point favorites over Tennessee.
While you don't get much bang for your buck this week on the top Ravens, there is some potential value with Houston players. Woody Marks is especially intriguing.
Frisky dogs
A handful of underdogs carry respectable team totals and could push their games toward shootouts: Arizona (23.0), Seattle (23.0), Chicago (22.8), Cincinnati (22.0), and Tampa Bay (21.0). Each has enough offensive potential to make their passing games worth considering.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 11 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Atlanta
The 23% scoring boost is eye-catching, but it's hard to know what to make of this offense, given how inconsistent Atlanta has been and how solid Carolina's defense has looked. While nothing here feels reliable enough for cash games, the Falcons could provide some sneaky GPP appeal that flies under the radar.
Pittsburgh
The combination of a 17% Week 11 scoring boost and Cincinnati's atrocious defense versus position numbers (especially against running backs and tight ends) should make several Steelers popular options. Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, and Pat Freiermuth all stand out as strong plays this week.
San Francisco
The 49ers' defense is banged up, but the offense remains loaded and well-coached. It's a setup that often leads to shootouts, and Week 11 looks no different with San Francisco projecting for a 16% scoring boost. Christian McCaffrey is a fantastic play if you can fit him in, and George Kittle, coming off a breakout Week 10, is also in a great spot.
Minnesota
The biggest question on the main slate is how much you trust J.J. McCarthy. Everything points toward the Vikings as a strong team to build around with a 15% scoring boost, appealing salaries, and great defense-versus-position metrics. However, there's still reason to question how much confidence we can have in this offense with McCarthy under center.
Green Bay
The Packers' offense has struggled against top defenses but has consistently delivered against weaker ones. They've topped 27 points and 400 yards of total offense against Washington, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh — all teams ranking in the top five in fantasy PPG allowed above expectation. The Giants rank sixth, putting this game in the same category. Expect Josh Jacobs to be the primary beneficiary.
Houston
The Titans give up the fourth-most PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. Woody Marks is in a great spot, and we'll take a closer look at his Week 11 outlook below.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 11 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Seahawks–Rams
This matchup projects as one of the highest scoring on the slate and should attract plenty of DFS interest. The challenge is that both defenses are talented enough to make this a tricky spot. It's easy to imagine a shootout where Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua both post big games, but it's just as plausible that these defenses turn it into a low-scoring grind that caps the upside of the high-priced offensive stars.
Buccaneers–Bills
This is another game featuring two high-profile offenses and a fairly high total, yet both teams are projected to score below their season averages. Rachaad White would normally profile as a strong play based on defense-versus-position data, but Sean Tucker has earned more touches in recent weeks, adding some uncertainty to the backfield.
Bengals
The Steelers' defense has been tough to figure out. In Week 7, they allowed 33 points and 396 yards to Cincinnati. A week later, they gave up 35 to Green Bay. But over the past two weeks, Pittsburgh has held the explosive Colts and Chargers offenses to 225 or fewer total yards. The betting market seems to be warning us to tread carefully with Cincinnati in Week 11, even with the favorable defense-versus-position numbers.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").