Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame member Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts, with three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2025 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to answer five of that week's biggest fantasy questions.
It's Week 16, and if you're reading this, it likely means you are in the semifinals of your fantasy league. Having gotten this far, you have likely listened to Harris' sage advice and ignored Davenport's inane drivel.
If it's not broken…
Centering Under Center
The season-ending ACL tear suffered by Patrick Mahomes II of the Kansas City Chiefs last week added injury to insult in a chaotic season under center in fantasy.
Which desperation starter (QB18 or lower in this week's rankings here at Footballguys) has the best chance to help fantasy managers advance in Week 16? Which high-end starter is the biggest risk for a letdown week at the worst possible time?
Harris: How about Carolina's Bryce Young, who heads into Week 16 as our QB22?
Young has played two games over the last three weeks. In those two games, against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13 and New Orleans in Week 15, he tossed four touchdowns without an interception.
As FanSided's Ryan Fowler suggested this week, head coach Dave Canales doesn't need Young to be spectacular. The Panthers need him to be precise, sustain drives, convert third downs, and -- this week -- keep ex-Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield on the sideline.
But when opportunities arise, Young isn't afraid to cash in.
His chemistry with rookie first-round wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has steadily developed, while Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette can rise up at any given time as well. And those opportunities now include running the ball. Young ran for a season-high 49 yards last week, and the previous three games have been his best three-game stretch as a runner this season.
But the matchup is key here.
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio pointed out this week, the Bucs have allowed the second-most passing yards all season and third-most since Week 10. They are second in TD passes allowed since Week 10 and top 10 on the season. Florio added that every QB to face Tampa Bay since Week 10 has topped 18 fantasy points, including Kirk Cousins and Shough in the last two weeks. Given all that, and the fact that Young has been QB11 on a points per game basis in tougher passing matchups over his last two games, I'm downright enthusiastic about him this week.
As for possible letdowns, there's an obvious candidate: Trevor Lawrence.
I know. He's been on a roll. Lawrence is coming off what might have been the best game of his NFL career. He was 20-for-32 for 330 yards and five touchdown passes, plus five carries for 51 yards and a rushing touchdown against the Jets, making him the first player in NFL history with at least five passing TDs, one rushing TD, and 50 rushing yards in a single game.
Lawrence has now thrown for 225-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games. That's the longest stretch of his career, and he has 14 touchdown passes (to six interceptions) and four rushing scores in the Jaguars' past seven games, during which they are 6-1.
But Lawrence has one of his toughest matchups all season in Week 16, a meeting with the Broncos in Denver. As Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano noted, no quarterback has beaten them for more than 14 fantasy points on their home field.
I'm not benching Lawrence, but after a 44.1-point output last week, I'm steeling myself for a letdown.
Davenport: It's been a fun year at quarterback in fantasy football in 2025—said no one ever.
That I'm recommending Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy in a must-win week is that carnival of carnage in carnitas.
For most of this season, McCarthy has made the Vikings miss Sam Darnold—a lot. But over the past couple of weeks, McCarthy has looked the part of an actual NFL quarterback—six total touchdowns, just one interception, and top-five fantasy production. McCarthy isn't a top-15 NFL quarterback, let alone top-five, but he plays a New York Giants team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Harris is spot-on with his concerns about Lawrence in Week 16. But there's reason to be worried about the quarterback just ahead of him in the rankings as well.
It's certainly not the matchup—the Dallas Cowboys have arguably the worst pass defense in all of the NFL and have surrendered the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Over his past three games, Justin Herbert of the Chargers has averaged less than 170 passing yards per game and thrown four touchdown passes—total. Herbert's busted left hand means more for his fantasy prospects this week than the Cowboys and their "Ole!" defensive scheme.
A Hearty Meal
We're keeping things simple this week. Meat and taters. Actionable info.
Which running back outside the top 25 this week has the best odds of a Week 16 smash spot? Which back inside the top 20 inspires the most hesitation from you this week?
Harris: When dipping outside the top 25 at this position, you're mostly looking at players in timeshares. My pick here is one of them.
Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. shares carries with Jordan Mason, but Jones tends to be the first option when healthy. Last week against the Cowboys, Jones out-snapped Mason 32 to 20. Since Week 14, Jones has averaged 14.5 touches and 70.5 total yards with a 51.3 percent snap rate. In addition, Jones has hit at least a 12 percent target share in five of his last six games.
But this is more about the matchup than it is Jones.
Since Week 11, the Giants have remained one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the highest per-carry average (6.0), the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt. As a result, New York has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs during that span.
On the other side of this one, I'm seeing Pittsburgh's Kenneth Gainwell ranked as RB9 heading into Sunday's game against the Lions.
It's understandable.
Since Week 12, Gainwell has been the RB8 (he's RB13 on a points-per-game basis). As FantasyPros noted, the former Eagle has drawn a 49.3 percent snap share, a 48.4 percent route share, and an 18.1 percent target share while averaging 13.3 touches and 73.8 total yards.
He has been the team's preferred passing down back while also eating into Jaylen Warren's red zone usage with seven red zone rushing attempts (Warren has nine).
Last Monday night against Miami, Gainwell carried the bulk of the load while Warren battled the flu, finishing with 126 total yards.
But Warren still exists.
The duo has combined for 1,760 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns this season, sometimes trading off who is featured during any given week. And that's why I'm going to take a shot on Gainwell falling short of expectations here. Well, that, and most everybody else in the top 20 this week is in a pretty good spot.
Davenport: Another week, another guy right on the line—Michael Carter of the Arizona Cardinals sits right at RB25 ahead of what should be a robust workload this week against the Atlanta Falcons—or so we all told ourselves when we ran to snag him off the wire this week.
Like Aaron Jones Sr., rookie Omarion Hampton (RB28) is in a committee backfield, at least for the time being—Hampton and Kimani Vidal split backfield touches pretty equally in last week's win over the Chiefs. But Hampton is also working his way back from injury and could see an increased workload Sunday against a Dallas defense that isn't much better against the run than the pass—seventh in PPR points surrendered to running backs this season.
Travis Etienne Jr. was on the receiving end of three of those touchdown passes Lawrence threw last week, Harris mentioned, making him a popular fellow in fantasy circles and this week's RB11 here at FBG. But as Harris also mentioned, the Jaguars aren't facing the Jets in Week 16. They are traveling to Denver to take on a Broncos defense that has given up just 96.4 yards per game on the ground and the fewest PPR points in the league to running backs this season.
