2025 has been the year of the running back. We have had inexpensive, chalky backs put up big weeks over and over. TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Monangai, Quinshon Judkins, and Rico Dowdle are recent examples. We have also seen the top backs like Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs deliver consistently. Most weeks, it has been optimal to use a running back in the flex, and picking the right trio has usually determined whether you had a profitable FanDuel week. Week 11 looks like more of the same. The first question is how you want to approach the position. Once you identify the backs who give you the most value for the salary, the rest of the lineup tends to fall into place.
Running back is especially interesting this week because there is no obvious low-priced play. There is no clear bargain like the week Dowdle was $4,900 with Chuba Hubbard out. Instead, we have a group of backs in the $6K range with real upside. RJ Harvey at $5,800 fits the mold of the cheap injury fill-ins who have smashed in recent weeks, but his situation is more complicated. He draws a tough matchup against a Kansas City defense that has been excellent, and his volume projection is less certain than someone like Monangai in his dream matchup two weeks ago. How much work will Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin siphon off? There is at least one back in this same price range who I prefer due to matchup, volume projection, and likely ownership. He is featured in the running back section below.
The mid-tier is also appealing, especially the backs in the Bengals-Steelers matchup at around $7K. There are enough solid options in the mid and low ranges that you can comfortably build rosters with three affordable running backs and still have room for premium receivers and the tight end who stands out as a near must-play.
Of course, we also have Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs on the high end with massive salaries and massive projections. One approach is to spend down and hope the top backs settle in the low twenties. The risk is that we have already had multiple weeks where the cheaper chalk hit, but it did not matter because an elite back posted a 40-point ceiling game. The slate may hinge on whether one of the top backs breaks things open again.
Once you settle on your running back strategy, the next step is identifying which passing game environments you trust. We will first look at the matchups from both a team and positional angle, focusing on the backfield outlooks and the passing games with the best chances to produce tournament-winning scores. Then we will go position by position to highlight the top plays. Each section will include Good Chalk, which covers the strong plays worth using even at high ownership, and Low Owned Targets, which highlights the players who can separate your lineup from the field.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense versus position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 11 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Atlanta
The 23% scoring boost is eye-catching, but it's hard to know what to make of this offense, given how inconsistent Atlanta has been and how solid Carolina's defense has looked. While nothing here feels reliable enough for cash games, the Falcons could provide some sneaky GPP appeal that flies under the radar.
Pittsburgh
The combination of a 15% Week 11 scoring boost and Cincinnati's atrocious defense versus position numbers (especially against running backs and tight ends) should make several Steelers popular options. Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, and Pat Freiermuth all stand out as strong plays this week. Warren is an especially strong play given Cincinnati’s youth at linebacker and poor tackling at safety.