In the NFL, there's no question that quarterback is the most important position. There are two types of NFL franchises: those that have a franchise quarterback and those that do not. The 16 highest-paid players in the league are all quarterbacks, headlined by Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys at $60 million per season.
Quarterbacks get the cash. The supermodel girlfriends. Most of the awards. They are the kings of the NFL. If your team doesn't have one, you're dead.
In fantasy football, however, it's a different story. Sure, having an elite quarterback on your fantasy squad like Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens might seem great. Jackson was the overall high scorer in fantasy football a season ago.
But depending on the format, a measure of patience is usually the wiser course of action under center, whether it's waiting for the last "elite" option, waiting a bit longer still for a mid-range option at the position or even engaging in a staredown with your leaguemates to see who will be the last team to draft a starter.
Let's take a look at the differing draft strategies at quarterback--and some values, busts, and sleepers at the position this year.
Quarterback Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: The Elite Guys
According to (admittedly) early ADP information, five quarterbacks are being drafted in the first four rounds of standard formats--Jackson, Allen, Washington's Jayden Daniels, Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts. The earliest (Allen) is coming off the board with the 19th overall pick.
Taking a quarterback that early is usually a mistake.
The reason is one of those fantasy buzzwords that fantasy analysts love so much.
Positional Scarcity.
| Position | Best Starter FPPG | Worst Starter FPPG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 28.7 | 21.9 | 6.8 |
| Running Back | 22.0 | 12.5 | 9.5 |
| Wide Receiver | 23.7 | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| Tight End | 15.8 | 10.2 | 5.6 |
Now, this is a ridiculously oversimplified take on positional scarcity--astrophysics in crayon. But that doesn't mean it's not accurate. Simply put, if you're playing in a league that starts just one quarterback, then 12 quarterbacks (and tight ends, usually) are in starting lineups each week, as opposed to 24 running backs and 36 wide receivers (not including "flex" spots).
The drop-off from QB1 to QB12 (in terms of fantasy points per game in 2024) wasn't as steep as from RB1 to RB24 or from WR1 to WR36. It was wider than at tight end, but that's because tight end is a post-apocalyptic hellscape in fantasy football right now.
We'll get to that eventually.
Generally speaking, the "edge" you gain by drafting an elite quarterback at ADP isn't as big as the hole you're digging at running back or wide receiver. Sure, if you hit on values in the backfield and at wideout, you can overcome that, and the longer your leaguemates wait to break the seal on the position, the easier it is to justify pulling the trigger. But as a rule, you don't want to be first under center.
Never mind that the first QB drafted and the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback at season's end are almost never the same guy. Allen was the first signal-caller off the board last year, too. He was fourth in fantasy points per game--three whole points per game ahead of Denver's Bo Nix (QB12 in FPPG).
That's not value. Or even especially close.
The Superflex Addendum
Everything I just wrote goes hurtling out the window if you play in Superflex or 2-QB formats. There, it's the NFL. You have a handful of teams smiling as their quarterbacks tear it up. Some others fake a grin and hope that their mid-range options will be good enough. And a bunch of folks weeping quietly into a coffee mug filled with Everclear.
Never mind that in 12-team leagues, there aren't enough starters for every squad to roster three.
This isn't to say that your first pick in a league like the Scott Fish Bowl has to be a quarterback--although if you have a top-three pick and pass on the position, the wait for your second-rounder will probably age you 12 years. You don't have to take a quarterback with your first two picks. Or two of your first three. But this analyst will say this. Every time I have tried to get cute at quarterback in leagues that start more than one, my team has wound up the 1987 New Mexico Lobos.
Every. Time.