Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares: James Cook's Run

The rumors of his regression were greatly exaggerated. Sure, he's logged a 58.9 percent share of Buffalo's running back snaps with 14 targets. It doesn't matter. James Cook has been fantasy gold for those who believed. 

We're definitely talking Cook today. Before that, I must welcome you back to Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. This is my weekly means of catharsis, to work through everything the fantasy week had for me. My aim in writing this is that some of the dreams and nightmares I identify also impacted you in some way. That way, we're both working through the highs and lows of imaginary football. 

The great Footballguys editorial staff is still letting me write it, so I'm going to keep bringing it to you. 

Beyond explaining what I'm trying to do here, I also use this intro to touch on topics that just missed the cut for their own entry. That, or they're a little broad, or are better suited as tone-setters for the rest of the piece. In this case, it's the latter. 

This idea of Bye-maggedon had us all losing sleep. I was staring down dynasty lineups with Tyrell Shavers and Christian Watson as starting receivers. Watson actually had a nice return, but it's the idea of desperation that many of us were wrestling with. Six teams were off. We were scrambling. 

The Bye-pocolypse was halted. The joy of National Tight End Day saved many of us. George Kittle, the holiday's founder, got into the end zone for the first time since Week 1. Tucker Kraft and Dallas Goedert each scored twice. The 12-personnel enthusiasts in Cleveland allowed Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku to both celebrate. The tight ends you needed to step up and carry you through the desolation likely did. All because it was their moment. 

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that I stand with Trey McBride. 

Having a bye week on national tight ends day shouldn’t be allowed …

— Trey McBride (@mcbtrey) October 25, 2025

I have to imagine he would've gone nuclear if Jacoby Brissett was under center, of course. 

Okay, I'm not taking shots at the Cardinals today. You can't get flamed on your bye week. Those are the rules. I'd say I didn't make them, but I guess I did. In either case, we've got bigger fish to fry. 

Let's get to it. 

Fantasy Dream: James Cook Hasn't Regressed

So much for touchdown regression. 

Through seven games this season, Cook has rushed for seven touchdowns. His rushing touchdown total through his first seven games was last season? You guessed it, seven. 

That's three sevens. Isn't that supposed to be lucky? 

Let's look at Cooks' first seven games from 2024 and compare them to this season's start. 

Not only have the touchdowns not regressed, but Cook's been utilized more, with an uptick in his efficiency. 

His six yards per carry is the highest figure in the league among qualified backs. That's also 1.8 yards over expected. No qualified back is adding more rushing yards per attempt over expected than Cook. The receptions didn't play a large role in his start last year. They aren't this year, either. The lack of passing usage relative to other top options clearly isn't a hindrance. 

Most of Cook's efficiency metrics are likely pacing, or nearly pacing, the league. His +0.15 expected points added per attempt is second only to Jonathan Taylor, and his 54 percent success rate is the highest. All while ranking fourth in the league in attempts with 126. 

His performance against the Panthers may have been the most impressive in his already special 2025 campaign. On just 45 percent of Buffalo's snaps, Cook logged 19 carries. He averaged 11.4 yards per attempt for 216 yards and two touchdowns. Of his rushing total, 134 yards were deemed over expected, the highest total of any qualified back in Week 8. The fact that he didn't log a single target was the cherry on top. 

The Bills run the ball more than they throw. They're the only team in the NFL with a run rate north of 50 percent at 50.5. They're also tied for fourth in touchdowns scored, with 81 total plays run in the red zone. Of those 81 plays, 43 have been rushing attempts. They've also run the ball in 21of their 26 goal-to-go scenarios. 

To sum this up, you've got a hyper-efficient back on a team more committed to running the ball than any other team in the league. Cook has a good shot to finish among the top-five producers at the position this season. Given where he went in drafts, he was a bargain. Again. 

Fantasy Nightmare: The Falcons, without Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, Did Regress

Is it possible we didn't appreciate the role Penix plays in making Atlanta go? Is this more about Drake London? Is it a little bit of both? All great questions. 

It's tough to gauge their individual impact, since neither has missed a game in which the other played. We can look at just how significant the loss of both players was to the team's average metrics. 

Without Penix or London, the Dolphins stacked the box on 29.4 percent of their 49 defensive plays. Atlanta couldn't sustain drives, picking up just 11 first downs to Miami's 24. This isn't a comparison of Penix and Cousins so much as a look at the difference in the team's ability to run its offense without two of its key pieces. That was significant for Bijan Robinson, especially before the game got out of hand. 

Robinson's -0.96 expected points added per attempt was a season-low for him. His -1.3 rushing yards over expected and 2.8 yards after contact per attempt were both second-lowest. Since Robinson ran wild over the Bills in Week 6, he's struggled as a runner. Over the last two weeks, he's averaging -1.8 RYOE/Attempt and three yards after contact per attempt. That's translated to 65 yards on 23 carries and no rushing touchdowns. 

Robinson's an otherworldly talent at the position. His receiving usage also elevates his weekly outlook. There's no reason to panic. Maybe it's just a reminder that he's also human.  

Kyle Pitts Sr. was the offensive focus without London and Robinson held in check. He's been a good option at tight end to this point. You can't complain about 8.6 Half-PPR points per game at a position with the floor tight end has. Nineteen targets over two weeks is about as good as you can ask for. 

In either case, any running back is going to struggle when a defense contacts them after 0.38 yards on average. For reference, the Dolphins' 2.01 yards before contact per attempt is still the third-worst average in the league, even after they suffocated the Falcons. 

London and Penix missing this one likely cost us a massive Robinson bounceback. 

Fantasy Dream: Jonathan Taylor Can't Be Stopped