In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But again, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
It's Week 1! I have a clean slate. In the future, I'll be tracking my success rate in this section. Until then, I'm batting a thousand, and I'm going to revel in that.
Quarterback
In: Bryce Young, Carolina @ Jacksonville
Week 1 is always tricky. In fact, the first month of the season tends to be downright weird in terms of unexpected outcomes and surprise performances. So how do I go about whittling all the possible choices down to the individual players I'm in and out on at each position?
Well, how I've viewed a player heading into the season absolutely influences my decisions.
I've been advocating for Young all offseason. After a slow start last year, Young averaged over 21 fantasy points per game across his final seven starts. He was QB6 over that stretch. This year, Carolina added a front-line threat at wideout in Tetairoa McMillan. And while they shipped one of my favorites, Adam Thielen, off to the Vikings, I still think this week's matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt and second-most passing yards per game en route to giving up a league-high 4,375 passing yards last season is sweet.
Additionally, Jacksonville had the third-lowest pressure rate, so Young should have time in the pocket to pick apart this defense.
Bottom line: Young's Footballguys Projection calls for a QB22 finish with 15.78 points. I say he finishes inside the top 15 at his position.
Out: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis vs. Miami
The Colts brought in Jones to challenge Anthony Richardson Sr. for the starting job. While Jones won the job and will become the eighth different opening day starter in nine years for the Colts, the Associated Press points out there are plenty of questions surrounding the decision -- and whether he can keep the job.
To do that, he must show he can consistently complete passes, avoid turnovers, and win games.
That's been a challenge for Jones in the past.
The former Giant hasn't thrown more than two TD passes in a game since Week 16 back in 2019, and he has 73 turnovers in 70 career games. As FantasyPros' Derrick Brown noted, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks last year, Jones ranked in the bottom five in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate.
As a result, Jones was the QB25 in fantasy points per game last season, despite ranking 13th in rushing yards per game at the position.
All that said, the matchup is appealing.
According to ESPN's Mike Clay, free agency and injuries have devastated Miami's cornerbacks room, which opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start. Clay notes that Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren all make for fine starting options.
Secondary aside, Miami's defense isn't all that horrible. The Dolphins in 2024 had one of the top defenses in the league, ranking 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game, ninth in yards per play, sixth in third-down conversion rate, and fourth in red-zone touchdown rate. Heading into the 2025 preseason, the defensive line was rated the 11th-best in the NFL by Pro Football Focus.
Are favorable receiving matchups enough for me to expect Jones to land in QB1 territory?
Bottom line: The answer is no. Jones' Footballguys Projection -- he's QB12 with 17.68 points -- is a bit rich for me. At the risk of playing it too safe (I mean, I do want some wins here in Week 1), I'll say Jones falls short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: James Conner, Arizona @ New Orleans
Heading into the 2025 season, all eyes are on how the Cardinals plan to divide carries between 30-year-old Conner and second-year man Trey Benson.
Conner had 236 carries to Benson's 63 last year, with the veteran earning a two-year extension after a career-best 1,094 rushing yards. He finished as RB11 in fantasy, which isn't a huge surprise. Conner has more than 1,000 scrimmage yards per season during his four years in Arizona. He's finished as a top-15 back on a points-per-game basis all four of those seasons.
Last year, Conner saw 76 percent of the Cardinals' goal-to-go rushes, which was the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Speaking at the NFL Scouting Combine back in February, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and head coach Jonathan Gannon hinted at a "two No. 1 backs" approach. But NBC Sports' Matthew Berry is among those not buying into that. "The Cards love Benson," Berry acknowledged before adding, "but team sources insist Conner remains the trusted bell cow -- especially late in games."
So, yes. Benson, the 2024 third-round pick, will get more work. But the interest in getting him that work mostly underscores how much the Cardinals want the running game to be the identity of their offense.
Meanwhile, Conner is projected to get 18 touches in this one.
That might be a bit low.
As ESPN's Liz Loza pointed out this week, Arizona is the third-biggest favorite in Week 1 with a spread of 6.5 points. Even if we see Benson get some turns, that game script also likely increases the odds of Conner's involvement. Assuming that's true, Loza contends Conner, who was RB11 in yards per touch with an average of 5.3 last year, should deliver high-end numbers at New Orleans as the Saints allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs in 2024.
Bottom line: Conner's Footballguys Projection isn't far off the mark. He's slated to finish as RB13 with 15.5 points. I say he exceeds that, finishing in RB1 territory (inside the top 12) in this one.
