Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Crunchtime Is Here
It's Week 15, and fantasy playoff season is here.
And as much as we'd love to have clarity, certainty, and predictability, the NFL doesn't care.
Instead, it seems to revel in ratcheting up our anxiety . . .
Who'd a Thunk It?
All season long, I've harped on the volatility that's become part and parcel of the modern NFL. While the wild finishes and unexpected outcomes make for fascinating viewing, we all know how much harder it makes setting weekly lineups.
As fantasy players, we're often reminded not to chase points.
But surprising spike-week performances from middle-of-the-pack and outlier players catch our attention for the obvious reasons. That interest is compounded when mainstays on our rosters come up short.
Again, chasing points is never a good answer. But chasing trends?
That's more acceptable.
But what's even better? When trends match up with fortuitous matchups.
Let's look at some of this week's most surprising outcomes and figure out what they mean and how fantasy investors should react . . .
Sanders Shocks the (Fantasy) World
Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders made strides in his third start, throwing for 364 yards and three touchdowns -- both career highs -- while running for another score in Sunday's 31-29 home loss to the Titans. He also showed room for growth, as he threw an interception in the third quarter that allowed the Titans to take a lead they never surrendered.
Still, his QB2 overall finish with 33.5 points was a surprise.
Sanders became the second rookie QB in NFL history with 350-plus passing yards, three-plus passing touchdowns, and one or more rushing scores in a single game, joining Joe Burrow in 2020.
He has completed 52.4 percent of his passes (54-of-103) for 769 passing yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He has also rushed for 50 yards and one touchdown on eight carries.
What Does it Mean?
The hope for fantasy managers is that he'll keep the offense on schedule and give the pieces we're invested in, Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr. (more on him below), and even Jerry Jeudy, a chance to deliver in our fantasy playoffs.
But playing Sanders? Chasing those points would be unwise . . .
Shough Lands In QB1 Territory . . . Again
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough is making his case to keep the Saints from drafting a quarterback in 2026. As ESPN.com's Katherine Terrell noted, the rookie (13-for-20 for 144 yards and seven rushes for 55 yards) made two impressive plays with his feet, scoring his first career rushing touchdowns of 34 and 13 yards, with the latter coming after he scrambled out of a sack.
There were rookie mistakes, as Shough was sacked three times and had an interception after a miscommunication with receiver Chris Olave.
But with his second win as a starter, he's also giving the Saints some hope.
The sudden rushing ability? That might give fantasy investors hope.
Shough became the first player with touchdowns on both a designed run and a scramble in the same game this season. His 34-yard rushing touchdown was the longest by a non-Taysom Hill Saints quarterback in franchise history.
Shough is also the first non-Hill Saints QB with multiple rushing TDs in a game since Drew Brees in Week 3, 2018.
How Should We View Him?
With his QB6 performance against the Buccaneers, Shough has ranked as a QB1 in three of his last four games.
He's QB11 in the previous three games.
Better still, Shough continues to fuel the fires of the player we're most invested in here, Chris Olave, whose 115 targets this season rank fourth in the NFL. Some of those targets have come with Shough throwing 182 passes in his six starts this year. That's the fourth-most in the NFL during those contests.
In addition to Olave, second-year wide receiver Devaughn Vele is an emerging weapon to watch next season . . .
Rodgers Has His Moment
Three weeks removed from fracturing his left wrist against the Bengals, Rodgers played his best football in more than a month -- for at least one half.
From snap one, Rodgers splashed big plays, hitting DK Metcalf for a 52-yard bomb. According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, it was the first time since October that Rodgers hit a pass 20-plus yards downfield.
With plenty of time, Rodgers threw all over the Ravens, hitting 23-of-34 attempts for 284 yards and a TD. He took zero sacks.
The deep shots that had been absent from Pittsburgh's offense were the key.
Rodgers went 3 of 3 for 121 yards on passes of 20-plus air-yards. He also found an explosive 38-yard touchdown on a swing pass to Jaylen Warren.
If only he could have done it all 60 minutes.
After punting just once in the first half, the Steelers recorded three consecutive three-and-outs in the fourth quarter.
Is the Moment Over?
Rodgers looked more mobile, extending plays and rushing for his first touchdown as a Steeler; he capped it off with a "Discount Double Check" celebration, too.
It was his first rushing score since Week 17, 2022.
Rodgers was QB8 when all was said and done. His 20.5 points were the third-most he's scored this season.
But the best-case outcome for fantasy investors has Rodgers better supporting the players we're interested in.
Metcalf was targeted a season-high 12 times in Week 14 against the Ravens, with seven receptions for 148 yards. The former Seahawk caught all three of his deep targets for 121 yards, his most deep receptions in a game in his career.
Metcalf was targeted on half of his routes when facing man coverage, hauling in three receptions for 87 yards on seven targets.
Can Rodgers and Metcalf carry that over against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football?
It'll be a challenge against a Miami defense giving up the seventh-fewest points to opposing wideout . . .
McCarthy Has A Career Day, But . . .
Sunday was by far the best game of JJ McCarthy's career. He returned from a one-game absence due to a concussion to complete 16 of 23 passes for 163 yards and a career-high three touchdowns, all of which went to tight ends.
According to ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert, McCarthy was accurate, played with poise, and benefited from a Commanders defense that largely declined to blitz him. On plays in which the Commanders sent a standard four-man pass rush, McCarthy was 11-of-14 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
McCarthy averaged 2.56 seconds to throw, his quickest in any game this season by more than a quarter of a second. He completed 10 of his 11 quick throws for 85 yards and two touchdowns.
The rookie finished the week as QB9 with his second-highest point total of the year (20.4).
The Bad News?
Justin Jefferson finished Week 14 with just two catches on four targets -- the second straight week with only two grabs. He had two or fewer catches in two total games in 2023 and 2024 combined.
Worse still, with 3.1 fantasy points, Jefferson finished as WR77.
Jefferson has now scored fewer than 10 points in three straight games, and ESPN.com's Ken Bowen contends we're at the point where the league's premier route runner can't be viewed as anything more than a flex play -- with limited upside.
I think most people will continue to play him as more than that, but the numbers lend credence to Bowen's case.
For the season, Jefferson is WR25 with an average of 12.1 points per game. But he's been WR34 over the last eight games with 9.2 points per game.
Jefferson has been WR55 over the last four weeks, with a meager 6.4-point average.
Reasons for Optimism?
McCarthy looked competent against the Commanders. This week, the young QB, Jefferson, and the Vikings get a favorable matchup in Dallas.
That said, McCarthy has been too hit or miss for me to trust him as my starter -- even against the Cowboys . . .
Pollard Breaks His Silence
In perhaps the most shocking development of Week 14, Tennessee -- owners of the league's 31st-ranked rushing offense -- racked up an eye-popping 184 yards on the ground on a snowy day in Cleveland.
The Titans did so while facing the 10th-ranked rushing defense and creating wildly explosive runs by running back Tony Pollard, who posted a season-high 28.1 fantasy points while displaying some home run juice.
Pollard, who carried the ball 25 times, turned two of them into touchdown runs of 30-plus yards.
According to ESPN.com's Turron Davenport, Pollard's 65-yard and 32-yard rushing touchdowns were the first ones of 30 yards or longer since 2022, when he had five total for the Cowboys. He had 161 rushing yards on the day, becoming the first Titans running back to do so this season.
Pollard joined Ravens running back Derrick Henry as the only backs to run for over 100 yards against the Browns this season.
On a day in which Cam Ward completed just 50 percent of his passes for 117 yards (albeit with two touchdowns), Pollard's contributions were vital to Tennessee's chances of victory. It also likely felt vindicating for Pollard, a big-name free-agent addition in 2024 who had only occasionally produced at a rate deserving of the $7.25 million he's earning per season, and hadn't cracked 100 yards in 2025 until Sunday.
The only negative here is that Pollard delivered his RB2 overall finish from many fantasy managers' benches.
It's Understandable
Pollard has scored in the single digits in five straight games; he's failed to hit double digits in eight games, with a 16.8-point Week 5 outing being his previous high.
Should we roll him out in San Francisco this weekend?
Don't get carried away, but Pollard has been RB17 over the last four games, and quietly sits at RB24 on the season. Play him like that . . .
Corum Makes It Two in a Row
The backfield combo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum gashed for chunk gains, combining to earn 8.5 yards per carry for 212 yards and three TDs on 25 carries in Sunday's win over the Cardinals.
They benefited from Arizona's focus on stopping a red-hot Matthew Stafford and his star wideouts, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The Rams combined for 114 rushing yards on 15 attempts versus light boxes (six or fewer defenders). Williams had eight carries for 61 yards against light boxes, while Corum had seven carries for 53 yards.
Corum rushed for 128 yards on 12 total carries, scoring two touchdowns after having only two in his previous 12 games combined.
The second-year man has now gained 209 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries over the last two weeks. The Rams have said they are giving Williams more time off so he's fresh for the playoffs, but Corum is playing well enough to warrant a larger role as we advance.
So, Who Do We Start?
No real change from my view in last week's Fantasy Notebook: Play both.
Corum was RB3 overall in Week 15, scoring 26.1 points. Williams was RB8 with 17.7.
The week before, Corum was RB18 and Williams was RB21.
They've both found the end zone in those games. I'm not sure I'd play Corum ahead of Williams, but I'd absolutely play Corum -- although we should remember he hasn't been producing like this all year . . .
As for the wideouts?
Adams caught four of his six targets for 29 yards, but he had his six-game touchdown streak snapped. Nacua, meanwhile, demonstrated his ability to make tough catches. The third-year man put on a show while finishing with seven receptions for 167 yards and two touchdowns . . .
Harvey Hits on All Cylinders
With the injury to J.K. Dobbins, the Broncos have become increasingly reliant on rookie running back RJ Harvey.
But, as Mike Moraitis of The Sporting News suggested, the early returns were underwhelming.
In Weeks 11 and 13, the first two games after Dobbins was hurt, Harvey tallied just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries, a meager 2.7 yards per carry.
Nonetheless, Broncos coach Sean Payton argued the best was still to come.
"There's that saying, 'You haven't seen anything yet,'" Payton said last Thursday, before adding that Harvey has a "rare running skillset."
Did We Get A Hint of It?
We might have gotten a better look at him on Sunday.
Harvey ran the ball 17 times for 75 yards and a touchdown in Las Vegas, and he caught six passes for 25 yards. This was a career-high for him in carries, rushing yards, and receptions.
The youngster finished the week as RB4 with 22 fantasy points, and he's an RB2 with upside going forward . . .
Wilson Is No Mirage
As ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss put it, "All Michael Wilson does when he's WR1 is go for 100 yards."
On Sunday, with Marvin Harrison Jr. out because of a heel injury, Wilson finished with 142 yards and two touchdowns on 11 catches. That's the third time he has been the Cardinals' WR1 and had 100 yards.
It's also the second time in those three Harrison-less games that Wilson has been fantasy's WR1 overall.
In fact, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft wrote, "[Wilson] has been everything that his fantasy managers had hoped Harrison could be." In Harrison's absence in Weeks 11, 12, and 14, Wilson has totaled 49 targets, 36 catches, 445 yards, and 92.5 fantasy points.
That's an average of 30.8 points per game. In Week 13, when Harrison played, Wilson managed 6.8 points on seven targets.
Wilson investors will obviously be watching Harrison's status closely in coming days. But it's hard to make an argument against playing Wilson if his teammate is absent again.
Matchup Concern Level?
Yes, Wilson and the Cardinals face a daunting matchup against Houston's defense.
But those who have benefited from Wilson's monster performances aren't going to be scared off. Nor should they be. Even in a tough matchup, expecting double-digit targets and high-end WR2 output seems reasonable . . .
It's Elementary, Watson
After watching him deliver a 24.9-point, WR6 performance in Week 14, it's become clear: Packers wideout Christian Watson has arguably become the NFL's best deep threat.
As The Athletic noted, his targets travel an average of 18.5 air yards, the league's highest mark, and his 452 receiving yards and five touchdowns are top-15 marks at his position since Week 8.
Watson saw just four targets in Green Bay's 28-21 win against the Bears, but had 89 yards and two touchdowns.
Watson has remarkably shown no signs that his torn ACL last year has slowed him down. After catching a 23-yard touchdown in the second quarter, he caught a quick slant and ran 41 yards to the end zone in the third quarter. He reached 21.6 mph on the catch-and-run score, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
As ESPN.com noted, that was the top speed by a Packers ball carrier since Watson hit 21.7 mph on a rushing touchdown against the Bears in 2022.
But There's an Issue
It's the targets. Touchdowns aside, Watson's 19 percent target share was his lowest since Week 10.
But it's been closer to the norm since his return. In seven games this year, Watson has averaged 5.8 targets per game, a number inflated by an outlier Week 13 game against Detroit in which he was targeted 10 times. He's had the same four targets he saw against the Bears in four of those seven games.
I'm fine rolling Watson out as a WR3 if I have some high-floor options ahead of him. But, with four games of 12.5 or fewer points (including three single-digit outings) and three of 18 points or more, the evidence suggests busts are as likely as booms . . .
Flowers Blooms
Ravens Zay Flowers caught eight of 11 targets for 124 yards against the Steelers last Sunday.
As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom noted, Flowers was free on multiple plays and helped move the Ravens offense, with Derrick Henry not finding the holes necessary to create runways for big plays.
As a result, Flowers scored 20.6 points for a WR8 finish.
Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out it's the first time Flowers has scored more than 15 points since Week 1, and he still hasn't scored a touchdown since then.
Is He Trustworthy?
So yes, Flowers has been a wildly inconsistent boom-or-bust play in fantasy this season. But, as Bloom wrote, "You have to put him against the Bengals this week in what should be a shootout."
Fannin Hits Big
With Sanders playing at prime-time levels against the Titans, Browns right end Harold Fannin Jr. caught eight passes for a game-high 114 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.
Fannin is clearly the favorite target for Sanders.
It resulted in a TE1 overall finish for Fannin, whose 25.4-point output was third-highest by any member of the team in 2025. The two ahead of him: rookie Sanders in this game, and Quinshon Judkins' 26.4 points in Cleveland's Week 7 win over the Miami Dolphins.
Fannin's Performance Isn't a Huge Surprise
According to Zachariason, the rookie had an 85 percent route share against the Titans -- his third straight game over 80 percent. For the season, Fannin and Jeudy are tied for the team lead in targets (83) and target share (18.5 percent).
But with Sanders starting, Fannin is averaging a 28 percent target share per game and just over 15 points per game.
And his chances of hitting that average are great going up against the Bears in Week 15 -- and beyond. Consider Fannin a weekly top-10 play throughout your fantasy playoffs . . .
Can Gesicki Repeat?
Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught six passes for 86 yards and one touchdown against the Bills in Week 14.
He was targeted six times during the game, and he finished the week as TE2 with 20.6 points.
Gesicki was a trusted receiver for Joe Burrow, even though Tee Higgins played and played well. But history suggests he could fare well again if Higgins sits out Week 15 with a concussion.
Circumstances Will Dictate
The 6-6, 252-pound Gesicki has always offered Burrow inviting mismatches while bringing deceptive yards after catch. But all that is amplified with the tight end having his biggest games last season when Higgins was sidelined.
As Bloom suggested this week, Gesicki is "a what-the-heck TE1 play" this week against the Ravens now that we've seen a ceiling game with Burrow back -- although Higgins' limited practice Wednesday suggests he has a chance to play . . .
