In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But I've been on a roll for more than a month now, with Week 15 further boosting the overall record. Let's review:
- I was in on 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who was projected to finish as QB12 in a favorable matchup against the Tennessee Titans. I predicted a finish inside the top 10. Purdy obliged. He was QB3. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who was projected to finish as QB5 despite facing one of the toughest matchups for fantasy QBs, the Minnesota Vikings defense. I predicted Prescott would fall short of his projection. He did. His QB25 finish was 20 spots shy of it. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Saints RB Devin Neal, who was projected to finish as RB30 against the Panthers. I expected volume to carry him into RB2 territory. The rookie's hamstring had other ideas, and he left the game in the first half. He was RB28, well on his way to making this a great pick. Alas, a miss. ❌
- I was out on Jets RB Breece Hall, who was projected to finish as RB20, going up against the stingiest run defense in the NFL. I predicted Hall would fall outside of RB2 territory in this one, and the Jaguars did their part. Hall finished the week as RB46. Big hit. ✅
- I was in on Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who I thought might turn into that Justin Jefferson in a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. He was projected to finish as WR21. I kept it reasonable enough, predicting a finish inside the top 20. Jefferson had other ideas. He finished as WR74. A sad miss. ❌
- I was out on Cardinals WR Michael Wilson, who was projected to finish as WR8 in a matchup against a tough Texans defense. I thought that was a touch high and predicted a finish outside the top 10. Wilson finished as WR18. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Colts WR Tyler Warren, in a decent matchup with Seattle. It seemed as if anybody was going to fare well in Philip Rivers' first game in five years, it might be his tight end. It wasn't. Warren was projected to finish as TE14. I predicted he'd land inside the top 12. The rookie finished as TE30. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who was projected to finish as TE8 despite facing Buffalo, who's given up the fewest points to the position all year. I said Henry would finish outside the top 10. He was TE47. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Ravens TE Isaiah Likely was projected to finish as TE17. He was facing a Bengals defense that's been incredibly generous to opposing TEs this season. I didn't go wild on this one, predicting a top-15 finish. Likely, who didn't even get a target, was shut out. A total miss. ❌
Well, it was a fifth-straight winning week, but it could have been so much better. As usual, I have nobody to blame but myself, and maybe Neal's recalcitrant hamstring, Jefferson's ongoing struggles, old man Rivers, and Likely's unlikely disappearing act.
Here's where we stand after 15 weeks:
Week 15: 5 hits; 4 misses.
Season: 69 hits; 66 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. With five-straight winning weeks, I'm sitting at .511. Let's see if I keep the winning streak rolling through the end of the regular season.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jared Goff, Detroit vs. Pittsburgh
The Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Rams has put the Lions' playoff hopes on the ropes. Winning out from here will be required to make the postseason, barring some significant help. It starts with getting back on track at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The good news?
Detroit's offense has been rolling in recent weeks. The rise coincided with head coach Dan Campbell taking over as playcaller. The Lions have 189 points in six games with Campbell calling the shots, averaging about 419 yards per game. They averaged 351 yards per game with coordinator John Morton dialing up the plays.
With Campbell pushing the right buttons, the Lions are giving us late-season impact players.
Yahoo's Scott Pianowski noted the results: Jahmyr Gibbs was RB8 in fantasy scoring during the Morton era. He's RB1 since Campbell took over. Jameson Williams was WR41 under Morton. He's the WR5 in the last six games.
More to the point here, Goff stood at QB14 with Morton. He's QB5 since.
In his six games with Campbell at the helm, Goff has thrown multiple passing touchdowns four times. He's topped 300 yards in three of them.
Goff was QB5 against the Rams last Sunday, with 338 passing yards and three touchdowns.
He scored 25.5 points against a defense that had allowed opposing QBs to score an average of 16.8 points per game over the last five weeks.
This week, he'll take on a Pittsburgh defense that's yielded the fourth-most passing yards and allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game to enemy signal callers (19.1). The Steelers have given up 19-plus points to the position seven times, and at least 21 points in two of the past four games.
The best part?
There's zero chance Campbell will take his foot off the gas with playoffs on the line.
Bottom line: Goff's Footballguys projection calls for a QB12 finish (with 18.44 points). I say Goff exceeds his projection.
Out: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville @ Denver
If it feels like I'm going out on a limb here, I am. But as always, my being out on Lawrence at his current projection does not mean I wouldn't play him.
After all, Lawrence has thrown for 225-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games. He has 14 touchdown passes (to six interceptions) and four rushing scores in the Jaguars' past seven games. With his 44.3-point output against the Jets last week, Lawrence now boasts a position-leading 102.5 points over the past four weeks.
That's 17.3 points more than the No. 2 over that span, Josh Allen.
So, yes. I realize Lawrence is on a roll. Also, I'm not advocating benching him.
But we should set realistic expectations.
As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg reminded readers, Lawrence's massive four-game run came against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets.
Before he went on that run, Lawrence was held to 11.8 points by the Texans in Week 10 and 15 points by the Chargers in Week 11.
This week, he draws the Broncos, who have allowed the third-fewest touchdowns (14) and sixth-fewest fantasy points per game (14.0) to opposing quarterbacks. Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano notes they've allowed just one quarterback (Jaxson Dart in Week 7) to finish a game on their home field in Denver with more than 14 fantasy points.
Set expectations accordingly.
Bottom line: Lawrence's Footballguys projection, QB4 (with 19.29 points), exceeds my expectation. I expect Lawrence to fall well short of this number.
Running Back
In: Audric Estime, New Orleans vs. NY Jets
It's Week 16. We'd all love to be fielding nothing but mainstays in our playoff lineups. Not all of us have mainstays available.
Some of us are forced to roll with targets of opportunity.
That being the case, the Saints might have what we're after.
The team placed rookie Devin Neal, who became the starter with Alvin Kamara sidelined by knee and ankle injuries, on injured reserve due to the hamstring injury he suffered in the first half against the Panthers last Sunday. Kamara's three-game absence will extend to four after he was ruled out on Friday.
Evan Hull and Audric Estime are next men up.
The two split snaps after Neal went down last Sunday, with each getting 20 turns. As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted, Hull appeared to be the more trusted runner, totaling four carries for 12 yards. Estime ran three times for 11 yards and was the primary receiving back. Estime, who ran 15 routes to Hull's eight, pulled in three of three targets for 39 yards.
I'm not pretending it's ideal, but I'll take a shot on Estime and his receiving role against a Jets defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs (37.5 points per game) over the past five weeks. Eisenberg notes that over that span, seven different backs have scored at least 13.5 points against the Jets with 14 total touchdowns.
Remember, Tyler Shough's WR2, Devaughn Vele, has been ruled out this week, adding potential targets for Estime.
Bottom line: Estime's Footballguys projection calls for a RB34 finish (with 9.72 fantasy points). I'll say Estime exceeds that flex-level expectation to finish in RB2 territory.