In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But a nice late-season run has me sitting in a pretty good spot. Let's review:
- I was in on Bears QB Caleb Williams, who went into San Francisco with a QB11 projection. I said he would finish inside the top 10. Williams was QB7. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, who was projected to finish as QB10 in a relatively favorable matchup against the Dolphins. Concerned about his struggles over the last eight games, I predicted Mayfield would fall short of that projection. He finished as QB12. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who was projected to finish as RB22 against the Raiders in Las Vegas. I thought the projection was close, but on the low side. I predicted a top-20 finish with his receiving role being the difference. Tracy caught one of two targets en route to an RB37 finish. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Panthers RB Rico Dowdle, who was projected to finish as RB21 in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. Based on his struggles in the four-game stretch leading up to this one, I predicted he'd fall short of his projection. Dowdle was RB25. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Raiders WR Tre Tucker, who was projected to finish as WR35, going up against a fairly generous Giants pass defense. I thought the absence of Brock Bowers would work in Tucker's favor, and he'd get the volume necessary to exceed that projection. Bowers' replacement, Michael Mayer, had other ideas, drawing nine targets to lead the team in receiving. Tucker was WR38. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Falcons WR Drake London, who was projected to finish as WR8, which I considered overly optimistic -- even with a favorable matchup against the Rams. I predicted London would fall outside the top 10 at his position. Turns out even that was optimistic. London finished as WR114. I'll take the hit, but dang. ✅
- I was in on Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who was projected to finish as TE10 against the Jets. I expected a favorable matchup, a depleted Patriots wide receiving corps, and chemistry with his QB, Drake Maye, would all combine to let Henry exceed that projection. He finished as TE7. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Colts TE Tyler Warren, who was projected for a TE7 finish against the Jaguars. In addition to facing an increasingly tough J-Ville defense, Warren had struggled in Philip Rivers' first two games. With all that in mind, I predicted Warren would fall outside the top 10. He finished as TE16. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr., who was projected to finish as WR42 in a favorable matchup against the Colts. I felt Thomas would easily exceed that projection. Parker Washington, who had a second-straight 100-yard receiving day, had other ideas. Thomas finished as WR48. A miss. ❌
Well then, getting back on the positive side after a losing Week 16 is just what I needed to set myself up for season-long success heading into a tricky Week 18. It could have been even better if it weren't for some narrow misses this week. Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself, and maybe a Raiders defense that didn't want to tank as badly as Raiders management, a Raiders offense that did, and Washington turning back into a target monster for the Jaguars.
Here's where we stand after 17 weeks:
Week 17: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 79 hits; 74 misses.
The goal here, which has become increasingly realistic, is to hit .500 on my predictions. We head into Week 18 sitting at .516. It sets up some interesting decisions.
Will I play it safe and preserve the percentage? Or continue taking big swings? Let's get into it!
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Sam Darnold, Seattle @ San Francisco
The 13-3 Seahawks are one win away from earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC as Darnold faces a former team, in San Francisco, and a coach, Kyle Shanahan, who helped resurrect his career.
In addition, Darnold could hit a $1 million jackpot with three touchdown passes and 150 yards passing.
Darnold has 3,850 yards through the air and 25 touchdowns on the season, but there have been issues.
At the top of the list are turnovers.
The Seahawks have 28 giveaways in 16 games. Darnold, with 14 interceptions (third most in the league) and six lost fumbles, has 20 alone.
So they need to avoid those issues, but Darnold has also been up and down in terms of fantasy production. Over the last six weeks, the swings have been wild.
Darnold has finished in QB1 territory twice, scoring 17.7 points (QB9) in Week 12 and 22.3 points in Week 14 (QB5). But he's also been held to single-digit outputs twice in that span.
Reasons to believe he can hit the high side in this one?
Star wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba's ability to take over games is one -- and a very good one at that. Rashid Shaheed has also hit stride in recent weeks, and his speed and play-making ability are pluses.
But more than all that would be the fact that he's going up against a San Francisco defense that's a far cry from the unit that held Darnold to 7.4 points in Week 1.
As Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano noted, injuries have diminished the Niners on defense, and they've allowed 275-plus passing yards in six of their last 12 games, including to the Colts' Philip Rivers in his second game back from a five-year retirement.
Sorting through this week's projections with a focus on players likely to be giving their all, Darnold stands out as a QB2 capable of delivering QB1 production.
Bottom line: Darnold's Footballguys projection calls for a QB16 finish (with 15.9 points). I'm confident he'll exceed that projection.
Out: Jared Goff, Detroit @ Chicago
The Lions won't be representing the NFC in the playoffs after being eliminated from contention with their loss on Christmas. Dan Campbell has suggested that breaking a three-game losing streak to end a difficult season on a good note, finishing above .500 on the year, is important.
And Sunday is also an opportunity to spoil the Bears' hopes for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and potentially sweep the season series against the NFC North champion.
According to Tim Twentyman of the team's official website, the Lions might play it safe with some players dealing with injuries who end the week as questionable to play -- as Amon-Ra St. Brown did -- and hold them out on Sunday.
Still, Chicago is the last game on the schedule, and Detroit wants to win it, much like they did in Green Bay Week 18 in 2022.
Goff is here for it.
"It's about respect," he said. "Not only respect for yourself, within your own team, but respect around the league. We want to go out there and put something good on tape that can gain a little respect back from probably some of the loss of respect we earned this year."
The 31-year-old quarterback has completed 68.3 percent of his throws for 4,233 yards with 33 touchdowns and seven picks. He's been sacked a career-high 36 times, with one game left, and has endured a truly tough task. He still ranks third in passing yards, fifth in completion percentage, second in passing touchdowns, and his seven interceptions put him among the league's best there, too.
He entered Week 17 on a heater, averaging 351 passing yards and three touchdowns over his previous two games.
But Goff and the Lions flopped against the Vikings, with the QB passing for 197 yards with one touchdown, and two interceptions (he also lost three fumbles), to finish the day with 8.1 fantasy points. Adding to that, Fabiano notes that Goff has had little statistical success in Chicago in his career, averaging a mere 12.2 fantasy points in five starts.
Bottom line: Goff's Footballguys projection, he's QB 12 (with 16.5 points), is reasonable enough. But among the QBs who seem to be invested in their outcomes, Goff will need to be at his best to hit his projection. Given the protection woes and turnover concerns, I'm predicting he falls short of that forecast.
Running Back
In: Tank Bigsby, Philadelphia vs. Washington
We need at least one target of opportunity here, right?
Reports early this week suggested the Eagles would rest heading into the playoffs. Head coach Nick Sirianni confirmed that on Friday. The Eagles have a chance to move up to the No. 2 seed with a win and a Bears loss to the Lions, but Sirianni said that he's prioritizing the chance to give his starters time off over moving up a line in the bracket.
"It's not a guarantee we can get the No. 2 seed, but I can guarantee I can rest the starters," Sirianni said. "Just thought that was the best thing for our football team right there."
Safe to say Saquon Barkley will give way to Bigsby in this one.
As Justin Howe noted in his Week 18 Rushing Matchups, the Eagles' ground game has frustrated fantasy investors this year, but it's trending upward.
Barkley has bounced from 62.2 yards per game (3.7 per rush) to 91.2 and 4.8 over the past 5 weeks, and as Howe suggested, "the pitiful" Commanders don't appear to be up to offering much resistance. Over the last eight weeks, Washington's defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Bottom line: His Footballguys projection lands Bigsby at RB16 (with 13 points). While that reflects the Eagles' plans to rest their starters, it doesn't recognize the matchup. Even if Will Shipley mixes in some, I expect Bigsby to lead the way and exceed his projection.
Out: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis @ Houston
One of the goals of this column is to make some uncomfortable fades. Taylor qualifies for that.
As Clutch Points' Garrett Kerman noted this week, Taylor has been fantastic on the season, racking up 1,559 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 309 carries for an impressive 5.0-yard average per carry.
But fantasy investors haven't seen Taylor come anywhere close to his ceiling since his 244-yard, three-touchdown, 49.6-fantasy point outburst against the Falcons in Week 10.
In fact, until last week's RB12 finish (with 17.4 points) against the Jaguars, Taylor hadn't finished in RB1 territory since. He still hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 10.
He's been RB19 over that six-game span, and his 14.1 points per game rank 16th.
On Sunday, Taylor goes up against a Houston defense that surrenders just 4.7 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in football. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Bottom line: Taylor's Footballguys projection, calling for an RB5 finish (with 17.4 points), feels ambitious given the matchup. He's absolutely a starter for me, but I expect Taylor to fall short of his projection.