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As we get closer to the start of training camps, NFL teams will continue their ongoing voluntary OTA sessions, capping their offseason programs with mandatory minicamps. While we watch for developments from the ongoing work, I'll be resetting some important battles heading into the summer. Last week, it was Quarterback Battles, Real and Imagined.
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This week, we'll be diving into the pool of ambiguous backfields to better prepare for our inevitable exposure to them.
Same Ol' Same Ol' in Pittsburgh
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Jaylen Warren reached career-high marks in touches (251), yardage (1,291), and touchdowns (eight) last season, his fourth in the league.
The former undrafted free agent put up 13.6 fantasy points per game, which ranked 19th among backs. Pro Football Focus tracked him with 56 forced missed tackles (seventh-best in the league).
But as was the case in Warren's first three seasons as a Steeler, he was in a timeshare.
Some expected more for Warren when the team let Najee Harris move on in free agency last offseason. Instead, Kenneth Gainwell became a limiting factor as a receiving asset working in tandem with Warren.
Gainwell, however, signed with the Buccaneers as an unrestricted free agent in March.
So, All is Well?
Not really. Pittsburgh swapped out Gainwell for Rico Dowdle as Warren's running mate. And while the team considers Warren the starter, the two are expected to split work in a Mike McCarthy offense that rarely deploys its backs in the passing game.
Warren is capable and effective as a rusher and receiver, but his ceiling figures to be limited in this committee.
Last year, Warren led Pittsburgh with 211 rush attempts, averaging 13.2 carries per game. He may finish with similar numbers while sharing the backfield with Dowdle. But Dowdle, who has only played a significant role for the previous two seasons in Dallas and Carolina, could easily lead the Steelers' backfield over Warren, who's not a high-volume ball-carrier.
At the very least, Dowdle is a tailback who can handle early-down touches and pace the ground attack with a hot hand.
Which means Warren may assume the enhanced receiving role previously shared with Gainwell in third-down and shotgun situations.
If so, Warren's target share and receiving numbers could look more like Gainwell's last season. Gainwell finished his lone season in Pittsburgh with a team-leading 73 receptions.
The Dowdle-Warren pairing -- anchoring power running and pass-game responsibilities -- leaves third-round pick Kaleb Johnson behind both on the depth chart.
Setting the Price
Despite adding versatile rookie Eli Heidenreich (who looks like a practice squad candidate), the team made no major draft moves at running back, indicating their plan to maintain continuity in the rushing attack. This decision comes as the team focuses its draft capital on bolstering the offensive line, receiver depth, and quarterback room.
The market is priced to reflect that.
Warren is going as RB28 in Round 6, with Dowdle going as RB31 a round later.
Those prices are fair for me since both players could deliver at that level working in tandem, while an injury to either opens the door to tremendous contingent upside for the one remaining.
If that comes to pass, Johnson would immediately become a waiver-wire target . . .