DraftKings GPP Domination Week 5

Slate Overview

Smaller Slate, Bigger Stacks

With bye weeks starting and an early Sunday kickoff in London, the main slate shrinks to 11 games for the first time this season.

Fewer games also bring fewer quality game environments. Lions at Cardinals carries a 53.5-point total, and only one other game tops 47 points. Detroit and Arizona's obvious plays will dominate GPP ownership.

With roster percentages concentrated so heavily on one game, we need to be hyper-sensitive to leverage, even if it costs us a few projected points. An 11-game slate is still large enough to avoid going all-in on short-slate game theory, but over-stacking becomes an attractive strategy when one game projects so far ahead of the rest.

For example, Jared Goff double-stacks with one Arizona bring-back will be extremely popular. Fewer entrants will push it further with three Detroit pass-catchers and multiple Arizona players. If the game delivers and you capture most of the relevant scoring, fewer things need to go right elsewhere in your lineup, and fewer of your opponents will share the same combination of players.

The strategy is especially useful in smaller fields, where you don't need a perfect lineup to win. A big score paired with a less common combination can be enough. As it applies to Lions vs. Cardinals this week, you either want to be all in or all out, and it doesn't profile as a game you want to skip.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.

The Chalk: Identifying Common Roster Construction

Understanding how the field is most likely to construct lineups helps us build differently without fading top plays entirely and sacrificing too much projection.

QB: Jacoby Brissett ($5,500) and Jared Goff ($6,600) will combine for at least 35% of total quarterback ownership in most tournaments. The $1,100 savings and cheaper stacking partners figure to make Brissett the more popular of the two. No other quarterback projects for enough ownership to meaningfully shape common roster construction.

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800) is closing in on the first five-figure salary we've seen on a main slate this season, yet he's still likely to exceed 50% ownership across GPPs of all sizes. Brissett-Gibbs with one Cardinals pass-catcher should be the most popular player combination by a wide margin.  Kyle Monangai's absence opens the door for D'Andre Swift ($6,200) to handle a bell-cow workload against Green Bay, making him the crowd's favorite RB2. Mid-priced injury fill-ins Braelon Allen ($5,400) and Emanuel Wilson ($5,300) should appear frequently in the flex. 

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) will pace high-end wide receivers in roster percentage, but fitting him into the common build probably means sacrificing Trey McBride ($6,700) in favor of Brissett's other top stacking partner, Michael Wilson ($6,200), who remains criminally underpriced by the DraftKings algorithm. Most rosters will need at least one salary saver at wide receiver. Potential injury beneficiaries Roman Wilson ($3,700) and Tre' Harris ($4,100) are the leading punt-play candidates. 

TE: It wouldn't be shocking if McBride tripled the ownership of the next-closest tight end. The only question is where the field turns when salary gets tight. For example, lineups with Gibbs, St. Brown, Brown, and Wilson probably won't have room for McBride or Brock Bowers ($7,000). Isaiah Likely ($4,300) could end up surprisingly popular in a plus matchup against Washington.

Flip the Common Build: Fading Gibbs' massive salary is the most straightforward path to constructing a unique lineup, but the matchup against Arizona gives him the highest ceiling on the slate by a wide margin. If you're building multiple lineups, aim to match the field's exposure to Gibbs, then differentiate around him with an under-owned game stack, such as Bears at Packers or even Vikings at Saints, while spending more heavily at wide receiver. 

Leverage Plays

Start with the chalk plays you trust most, then pivot at two or three spots to players below who offer a similar ceiling to the consensus top plays but lower ownership. Keep your lineups correlated and consistent with the overall story you’re telling.