DraftKings GPP Domination Week 10

Slate Overview

Deadline Disarray

Just as we were settling into a groove projecting snaps, routes, targets, and tendencies, the trade deadline and a brutal string of injuries have left several offenses nearly unrecognizable this week. We can do our best to digest coach speak and scour beat writer reports, but we're still facing far more uncertainty than usual for a Week 10 slate. The most pressing questions for tournaments include:

• Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are priced as though Carson Wentz is their quarterback. Will Kirk Cousins step in and make them screaming values from day one?

• Can Cousins' former understudy, Fernando Mendoza, answer the call against Seattle's elite defense in his NFL debut, or at least keep Brock Bowers afloat?

• How does adding Josh Downs affect the target hierarchy in Kansas City?

• Indianapolis' wide receiver room was gutted down to the studs. Is Ashton Dulin a worthy flier against the lowly Dolphins defense? Deion Burks? Anthony Gould?

• The wide receiver depth charts in LA and Arizona are also being held together by spit and tape. Does the law of conservation of targets apply to guys like Tutu Atwell, Konata Mumpfield, Reggie Virgil, and Elijah Higgins?

The fun part about GPPs, and DFS in general, is that none of us get to see how these situations play out and make decisions once we have better information. And fortunately, we don't have to. DFS is a peer-to-peer game, so we get to form our strategy around how comfortable or uncomfortable our opponents are with making blind assumptions about these situations. Projected ownership tells the story.

The crowd appears confident Cousins will immediately raise Jefferson's floor and ceiling. They want nothing to do with Bowers against Seattle. Business as usual for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce is the prevailing wisdom. And no one is playing the scrub receivers from the Colts, Rams, and Cardinals with any type of conviction.

Rather than trying to dial in projections on every unsettled offense or zig while the crowd zags as a rule, pick your spots. If you think Cousins stumbles out of the gate against Green Bay, fade Jefferson. If you've been holding a candle for Dulin since his days at Malone University, play him to save salary in about 10% of your lineups. Leave the rest alone. A couple of strong reads on situations the field is also guessing about can create all the leverage you need to climb the standings.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership relative to favorable scoring conditions.

The Chalk: Identifying Common Roster Construction

Understanding how the field is most likely to construct lineups helps us build differently without fading top plays entirely and sacrificing too much projection.

QB: The game total in Panthers at Saints has crept up since betting opened, and so has Tyler Shough's ($5,700) popularity throughout the week. A solid showing last week against the Browns, the returns of Kelvin Banks Jr. and Jordyn Tyson, and what promises to be a fast-paced matchup against Carolina will make Shough the crowd's favorite quarterback. More lineups will settle for Shough's mid-range price, though some will spend up to Brock Purdy ($7,000) in a juicy matchup against Dallas.

RB: Bijan Robinson ($8,200) faces a tough Kansas City defense, but with Jahmyr Gibbs playing Sunday morning in Munich and Ken Walker III a surprise scratch, he'll be among the most rostered players on the slate. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) will join Robinson in plenty of lineups, but fitting both high-end backs under the cap is difficult. Chuba Hubbard ($7,200), who has Carolina's backfield to himself and correlates with Shough in a terrific matchup against the Saints, profiles as the crowd's favorite RB2. Playing a running back in the flex will be more popular now that Emmett Johnson ($4,700) is in play.

WR: Fantasy gamers have been waiting for Justin Jefferson ($6,800) to have adequate quarterback play for years now. Our opponents won't wait to see how it goes with Kirk Cousins before making Jefferson their first click at wide receiver. Chris Olave ($7,000) fits the common build as Shough's obvious stacking partner against Carolina's injury-depleted secondary. Pairing Jefferson and Olave's salaries alongside two expensive running backs requires thrifty spending at WR3. Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,500) is once again the primary beneficiary with Carnell Tate ruled out, while Tank Dell ($3,900) has become popular with Marvin Harrison Jr. out of Houston's lineup.

TE: Tyler Warren ($4,400) is suddenly the only viable target in Indianapolis' passing game, and Miami's defense has struggled to defend enemy tight ends. Those who spend up to McCaffrey at RB2 can still make the lineup work by playing Colby Parkinson ($3,000) instead. Parkinson, like Warren, finds himself without meaningful target competition this week.

Flip the Common Build: It's an interesting week where stacking the highest-total game on the slate naturally forces you away from the crowd's preferred construction. Going up to Brock Purdy ($7,000) at quarterback practically requires stacking him with George Kittle ($6,500) at tight end. If you run it back with CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), you're now spending heavily at three lineup spots where the field is saving. The tradeoff is dropping into the value tier at running back, where Ollie Gordon II ($5,800), Zach Charbonnet ($5,600), and Blake Corum ($5,100) stand out as strong plays.

Leverage Plays