We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Chicago Bears Coin-Toss Questions
- Is Williams' Inaccuracy a Warning Sign for His Fantasy Outlook?
- How Will Swift and Monangai Split Touches This Season?
- Should Loveland Be the Third TE Off the Board in Your Draft?
- Odunze or Burden: Who Should Be Picked First This Year?
How do you envision the workload split between D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai? What fantasy tier do you see them in this year?
Sigmund Bloom: There's no reason to expect the split to change significantly from last season. Swift was decisively more valuable last season, good enough for RB15 in PPR on a points-per-game basis, slightly behind Javonte Williams. Williams is going more than a full round ahead of Swift, and Swift is RB23 in early Underdog drafts, although his ADP is higher than it was going into last season. Swift could still be underpriced. Monangai was RB43 last year in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis, but he is RB31 in early Underdog drafts and in the top 100 picks, only two to three rounds behind Swift. The fantasy hive mind is too optimistic about Monangai taking a step forward this year.
Maurile Tremblay: Swift's $8.80 million cap hit ranks 11th among running backs. Releasing him would clear $7.47 million against only $1.33 million in dead money, making him a potential cap casualty notwithstanding his strong performance in 2025. Assuming Swift stays, I largely agree with Sigmund's assessment. Swift does look potentially underpriced as RB23 in early drafts, given the offensive environment and his three-down role. The Bears' offense produced 52 touchdowns in 2025, so the scoring opportunity is there. I also agree that the fantasy community is probably too optimistic about Monangai. He's more of a complementary piece than an emerging feature back. Even if Swift were released, the team would likely add meaningful competition rather than handing the lead role to Monangai.
Meng Song: Barring a surprise early-round rookie addition in the backfield, I'd project Chicago to continue utilizing Swift and Monangai in a 60/40 type split. My focus would be on red-zone and goal-line carries, though. While Monangai began his rookie season in a reduced role and didn't become a prominent part of the offense until the second half of the year, he saw just seven fewer red-zone carries than Swift on the season. On top of that, each Bears running back logged 10 carries inside the five-yard line in 2025. Assuming Swift will be drafted at least a round or two earlier come August, I would much rather draft Monangai, who I think will score a similar number of touchdowns even if Swift were to see more total touches. Plus, Monangai would have contingent upside as the later pick if Swift were to miss time again in 2026.
Andy Hicks: The Bears' running back situation is frustrating for fantasy purposes. Both of these guys deserve to be RB2s this year. The frustrating reality is that we know the team is chasing a higher-caliber running back. Players like Jahmyr Gibbs or even David Montgomery don't come around often — these are the type of players who can truly unlock and maximize the full potential of the offense. For now, it's Swift and Monangai. Monangai has the young-back upside; Swift has the potential-veteran downside. The split from last year was approximately 60/40 in favor of Swift, but from Week 10 onward, it was 50/50 with a slight edge to Monangai. For that reason, Monangai has to be given the edge for 2026. I would put it at 55/45 for now, but could be persuaded to give Monangai more touches.
Jeff Haseley: D'Andre Swift had a career year in 2025 (1,087 yards), but Kyle Monangai's breakout in the second half can't be ignored. I envision a 65/35 split early on. Swift is a solid RB2, while Monangai is a high-end RB3/Flex who could take over if Swift's injury history catches up to him.
