Looking back at the last five rookie drafts could reveal some trends to inform our pre-draft rankings. Does anything interesting emerge when searching for patterns in the most prominent hits and misses?
Quarterback Lessons
Quarterback value has swung from overvalued to undervalued in rookie drafts - even (especially?) in superflex.
Only one of the six first-round quarterbacks drafted in 2021-22 is still starting (Trevor Lawrence). One of the three from 2023 is a bust (Anthony Richardson Sr.), and neither of C.J. Stroud nor Bryce Young has turned into a valuable fantasy asset. Then, 2024 gave us Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams. Yes, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. are looking like misses, but the big class of first-round picks combined with the recent failures pushed them down the board. In 2025, Cam Ward fell farther than a #1 overall drafted quarterback should in superflex drafts, and Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough also slid - which has made them two of the biggest early hits from the 2025 draft in Superflex.
How to apply this in 2026: Fernando Mendoza shouldn't fall past 4 or 5 in superflex rookie draft, be willing to trade up if he does. Let's wait and see which organization takes Ty Simpson (and maybe Garrett Nussmeier) before taking a stand on them.
Running Back Lessons
Don't take late first-round and second-round running backs over their WR/TE ADP peers.
Almost all of the running backs drafted over the last five years in the second half of the first round or second round - Omarion Hampton (LAC), Najee Harris (PIT), Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX), Breece Hall (NYJ), Ken Walker III (SEA), Javonte Williams (DEN), Quinshon Judkins (CLE). TreVeyon Henderson (NE), RJ Harvey (DEN), Jonathon Brooks (CAR), James Cook (BUF) - have ended up being worse picks than the average WR/TE taken in the same area of their dynasty rookie drafts. James Cook stands out as a clear exception, and Omarion Hampton could be the second. Etienne, Hall, and Walker have helped fantasy teams, but Etienne went ahead of Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith in many drafts. Hall and Walker went ahead of Drake London in many drafts. Dynasty players who took Henderson and Harvey ahead of Egbuka and Burden are likely regretting it.
How to apply this in 2026: This is going to be tricky. The only running back from 2026 that this applies to is Notre Dame's Jadarian Price, but if Seattle takes him, then he'll definitely be worth a pick in the mid-first round of dynasty rookie drafts. If Price lands somewhere that he's blocked for the next 2-3 years, then we'll have to reconsider.
Third- and fourth-round running backs have given us more big hits than the wide receiver and tight end positions combined.
Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Cam Skattebo, and De'Von Achane all rank among the 10 best rookie draft picks you could have made in the last three years. None of them cost more than a late first-round pick. That area of the last three drafts did not produce as many hits at wide receiver or tight end, even if you combine the two positions. There have been plenty of misses at running back in the third and fourth rounds of the NFL draft, but simply narrowing the group down to backs who did not have a proven starter still on the front nine of their career ahead of them when they were drafted eliminated a lot of the misses.
How to apply this in 2026: We should prioritize any third/fourth round running back that lands on a team with the opportunity to start on the horizon.
