ELITE QB1
- Josh Allen, BUF **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Is Allen compelling enough to break the seal on quarterback by taking him in the third round?
It turns out that Allen played through a broken bone in his foot that required surgery after the season for most of 2025. His team traded a second-round pick to DJ Moore, who will be his designated scramble drill big play threat, and promoted his beloved offensive coordinator (who also coached Moore at a previous stop in Carolina) to head coach. He could separate from the field at quarterback, but that field is deep with candidates who have top 3-5 upside.
My Answer: Maybe. It depends on your lineups (less starting spot, more quarterback value) and scoring system (non-PPR or 0.5 PPR helps all quarterbacks, while four-point pass touchdown helps Allen), and how you feel about the players you are passing on in the third round. I won't talk you out of it, but take your favorite quarterback in the 10-20 range (Malik Willis!) even if you take Allen.
RISKY ELITE QB1
- Lamar Jackson, BAL **AVOID AT ADP**
The Big Question: How is Jackson going to do without John Harbaugh and Todd Monken?
The Ravens' offense had become stagnant under Greg Roman and really came to life when Harbaugh hired Todd Monken. Now both are gone, and Ben Johnson/Sean Payton disciple Declan Doyle is calling the shots on offense. Jackson was also a disaster for fantasy once he got hurt, so he feels riskier coming off a lost campaign. You'll get him a round or two after Allen, but the floor is a lot lower, while the ceiling isn't as high.
My Answer: Probably not good enough to regret passing on Jackson at ADP.
THE NEXT BIG THING?
- Drake Maye, NE **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Justin Herbert, LAC **VALUE PICK**
- Trevor Lawrence, JAX **VALUE PICK**
The Big Question: Can any of this trio join Allen and Jackson in the elite QB1 tier cheaper at a multi-round discount?
This group is going a round or two after Jackson, but there's an argument that they are better picks. Maye outproduced Jackson last year and should gain A.J. Brown. Herbert got paired up with Mike McDaniel in the offseason and was a strong QB1 when he had even one healthy tackle last year. Lawrence was the hottest quarterback in fantasy football at the end of the season
My Answer: A good plan at quarterback is to wait for one of Herbert or Lawrence to go off of the board and hope your next pick is close enough that you can take the other.
STILL A BIG THING
- Joe Burrow, CIN **CONSIDER AT ADP IN 5- or 6-PT PASS TD LEAGUES**
- Patrick Mahomes II, KC **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Are fantasy football players underrating these quarterbacks?
There's no denying that Burrow comes with an injury risk, suffering a significant injury in three of his six seasons. We do know that when he's healthy, he's a top-five fantasy quarterback, with added value in leagues that award five or six points for passing touchdowns. He is going at QB3 after Jackson, so if you want to take a quarterback to exploit that scoring system, you might be better off grabbing Matthew Stafford a few rounds later. Mahomes could play in Week 1 and might regain form faster than expected if his ability to come back from and play through injuries in the past is any indication. He also returned to elite fantasy QB1 form last year, though the team may want to dial back his running after he went down. He also didn't have Rashee Rice for part of the year, and Xavier Worthy was playing hurt all season. Better health from his wideouts could make a difference. Mahomes is a consideration if you miss on Herbert/Lawrence.
My Answer: Not really. Burrow's injury discount is small, and Mahomes isn't much cheaper than quarterbacks with similar ceilings that aren't coming off a catastrophic knee injury.