ELITE WR1
- Ja'Marr Chase, CIN **DRAFT AT ADP**
- Puka Nacua, LAR **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: If you draw pick 4 or 5, should you take Christian McCaffrey or a wide receiver?
Joe Burrow is healthy, and Joe Flacco is back with Cincinnati. Chase is the safest of this group by a good margin. Nacua went to rehab this offseason. I have no idea how to factor that in to his outlook, but I don't feel free to say it won't matter at all. Smith-Njigba had an absolutely ideal season, and the offensive coordinator who engineered it is gone. Teams will likely adjust and try to force Sam Darnold to throw elsewhere, and Smith-Njigba's target share was the highest since DeAndre Hopkins in 2017, which is unlikely to be repeated.
My Answer: Take McCaffrey over Smith-Njigba
HIGH FLOOR WR1
- CeeDee Lamb, DAL **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Rashee Rice, KC **MONITOR LEGAL SITUATION**
- Chris Olave, NO **VALUE PICK**
The Big Questions: Will George Pickens keep Lamb's ceiling low? Will Jameson Williams pull closer to St. Brown in targets? Is Rice worth the high risk in the second round? Is Tyler Shough for real?
This tier actually spans from the mid-first to the mid-late second, with Olave falling to the third round in some drafts. Lamb and St. Brown are proven talents in proven offensive environments with the ability to rival the elite WR1s in production. They are worth the first-round pick it takes to add them. I have Lamb ahead of St. Brown, but that is debatable. Rice should score at the same level as Lamb and St. Brown, but he has only played in 12 games over the last two seasons. Olave's PPR points per game with Tyler Shough were actually higher than Rice's last year. It's reasonable to take him over Rice, but if you are picking near the end of the second, Olave has a better chance of making it back around to you.
My Answer: Lamb and St. Brown are preferable to reaching for a running back (other than Christian McCaffrey) in the second half of the first round in PPR drafts, but Rice (monitor how the Chiefs are handling his legal issues) and Olave offer more upside as second-round picks who can produce similar, if not better numbers to Lamb and St. Brown. Starting a PPR draft with two of these players is a very good lineup foundation.
HIGH CEILING WR1
- Drake London, ATL **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Justin Jefferson, MIN **AVOID AT ADP**
The Big Question: Can Justin Jefferson get back to elite WR1 scoring with Kyler Murray?
Maybe that question is moot because Jefferson is going in the late first, which assumes that Murray will be a good match for him. The Vikings also have Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and now Jauan Jennings. There's just no upside to taking Jefferson in the first. London is going in the mid-second, and the recent news that Michael Penix Jr. is participating in OTAs is good for his outlook. We already know London can produce numbers with Penix that would justify a first-round pick.
My Answer: Let someone else take Jefferson, but consider London in the second in PPR, especially if you went running back (likely Christian McCaffrey) in round 1.
HIGH CEILING WR2
- George Pickens, DAL **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Nico Collins, HOU **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Garrett Wilson, NYJ **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Tee Higgins, CIN **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: If Chris Olave is gone, which one of these receivers should you take in the third round?
All of these receivers are viable third-round picks in PPR leagues. Pickens will likely be first off the board (maybe even ahead of Olave). He's worth that cost. Collins is usually next, which is a discount from his ADP in recent years, but maybe not big enough after C.J. Stroud ended the year on a sour note and Tank Dell is on track to return. Wilson could rebound from a bitterly disappointing 2025 with Geno Smith and Frank Reich added to clean up the offense. Higgins is a known quantity - which is boring, but he has a top-5 weekly ceiling with Joe Burrow and Joe Flacco returning to Cincinnati, which reinforces his floor. He and Wilson are still fine picks in the late third if you started RB/RB.
My Answer: None of these options are exciting, but they are viable if your roster build steers you to a wide receiver in the third round.
BOOM/BUST WR2
- A.J. Brown, PHI/NE? **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Jameson Williams, DET **VALUE PICK**
- Malik Nabers, NYG **AVOID AT ADP**
- DeVonta Smith, PHI **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- DJ Moore, BUF **VALUE PICK**
- Mike Evans, SF **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Terry McLaurin, WAS **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Zay Flowers, BAL **AVOID AT ADP**
The Big Question: Which of these players with either week-to-week volatility or injury/age risk are worth taking the plunge at the going price?
This tier spans from the third round to the fifth, so the simple answer here is not to take any of them unless they fall to the fifth, or at least late fourth (and guys like Montgomery and Skattebo are gone). Maybe the Patriots give Brown all of the targets he was lacking in Philadelphia, but this team still has a lot of viable passcatchers, and there's some risk of Brown having a less-than-seamless transition to a new offense, quarterback, and coaches. Williams was more than worth his ADP once Dan Campbell took over playcalling last year. Nabers is falling after news of a second knee surgery, but probably not far enough. Smith should get a bump once the Brown trade is done, but the addition of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers lowered his ceiling. He could still hit after being compared to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in multiple offseason buzz columns - it all depends on Sean Mannion and Josh Grizzard's ability to get good football out of Jalen Hurts. Moore often falls to the fifth round, and I would gladly scoop him up there. Any receiver who had a career year with Justin Fields should flourish with Josh Allen. Evans is in a high-efficiency offense and could hit as long as he stays healthy. The track record of receivers changing teams this late in their career isn't great - it can be a sign of impending decline. He's still worth consideration in the fifth, as is McLaurin, who could benefit if the Commanders successfully install their under-center running game and create more play-action shot play opportunities. Flowers is the clear #1 in Baltimore, but that has been a ticket for inconsistency, albeit with ceiling games. His early fourth-round ADP is too rich considering who is going after him.
My Answer: Ideally, if you take anyone from this tier, it will be Jameson Williams in the late fourth/early fifth or DJ Moore in the fifth.
BREAKOUT WR2
- Emeka Egbuka, TB **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Tetairoa McMillan, CAR **AVOID AT ADP**
- Ladd McConkey, LAC **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Rome Odunze, CHI **VALUE PICK**
- Luther Burden III, CHI **AVOID AT ADP**
The Big Question: Which of these second/third-year wide receivers are most likely to take a Jaxon Smith-Njigba-esque leap in 2026?
This tier is fun, and hopefully, you have conviction about at least one player in this group. I'm sorry if that is McMillan or Burden. McMillan is going in the late third, which doesn't leave much room to outperform ADP given Bryce Young's limitations and Jalen Coker's late-2025 emergence. Burden going ahead of Odunze is tough to swallow, considering that Burden hasn't even proven that he can be a consistent producer. Egbuka is going in the early fourth, and I'll be tempted to take him there. He has the Smith-Njigba skillset, and he'll have the versatile "Z" receiver role that can set him up for similar usage to Smith-Njigba in a good passing offense with an aggressive quarterback. McConkey is also in the early fourth, but creeping into the late third. He could hit in Mike McDaniel's offense with Justin Herbert slinging it, but there's some uncertainty about how the passing game target distribution will look. Odunze is an easy pick in the fifth round. He was already on his way to establishing himself as the #1 downfield target before DJ Moore was dealt, and Odunze was breaking out last year before a foot injury torpedoed his season.
My Answer: Odunze is the best value in this tier, but Egbuka is the one who gets me most excited.
CAREER YEAR WR3/FLEX
- Jayden Reed, GB **TOP VALUE PICK**
- Alec Pierce, IND **VALUE PICK**
- Christian Watson, GB **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Can you get away with only taking two wide receivers in the first five picks as long as you get two of this tier in the 6th-8th?
As long as these guys don't get hurt, they will post career year numbers. Reed and Watson are going to get more targets with Romeo Doubs gone to New England in free agency, and Pierce is going to have an expanded role after the Colts signed him to a four-year, $114 million deal and traded Michael Pittman Jr. You can get Pierce in the seventh and Reed in the eighth of some PPR drafts, but there's nothing wrong with taking Pierce in the sixth and Reed in the seventh, especially when you look at the other players around them in ADP. Watson is going in the late fifth/early sixth and he's worth that, but not worth taking over DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, who are also available well into the fifth round sometimes, so whether you end up with Watson could come down to whether you draw a late draft slot.
My Answer: Reed and Pierce should be going 1-2 rounds earlier than ADP, and they allow you to break ties against wide receiver in earlier rounds.