CLIFF'S NOTES
- Running back is deep enough this year to possibly get away with taking your RB1 in the fourth and your RB2 in the fifth.
- If you have the #1 or #2 pick, you are likely taking Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. Flip a coin.
- There's nothing wrong with taking Christian McCaffrey in the mid-first.
- If you are going to take a running back in the second round, it should be Chase Brown or Ken Walker III.
- If you are going to take a running back in the third round, it should be Josh Jacobs.
- Many split backfields are misvalued, putting the younger and higher-drafted back ahead of the trusted veteran. Use this to your advantage.
- There are plenty of viable late-round running back lottery tickets to choose from.
ELITE RB1
- Bijan Robinson, ATL **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Which of these two rising stars set up for career years should you take first?
Tyler Allgeier left in free agency, and David Montgomery was traded to Houston in the offseason. They were replaced by Brian Robinson Jr and Isiah Pacheco. Usage will (most importantly, in the red zone) go up for Robinson and Gibbs. The #1 and #2 picks are more valuable in light of this, but which one should go #1? Gibbs is in the more efficient offense, although Robinson outscored him by more than a point a game in PPR leagues last year. Each back saw their running mate score eight times and get roughly the same number of red zone opportunities (38 for Montgomery, 33 for Gibbs). The big difference is that Allgeier's red-zone usage and production accounted for a much larger share of the Falcons' overall production than Montgomery's did in the more prolific Lions' offense. The Falcons' offense also has more room to improve with Kevin Stefanski calling the shots now.
My Answer: I would take Robinson, but flipping a coin is also a reasonable approach. There's no wrong answer.
FEELING LUCKY?
- Christian McCaffrey, SF **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Should you spend your first round pick on the soon-to-be 30-year-old McCaffrey coming off the heaviest regular season workload of his career?
The only running back who could (and did) outscore Gibbs and Robinson is McCaffrey. He was the most valuable player in fantasy football last year, and he's available at the same mid-first round price he cost last year. Perhaps the five or so options going ahead of him are more compelling on paper than the top five were last year, but the fact that McCaffrey's price hasn't gone up should get your attention. Last year, the risk with McCaffrey was that he was used up - that his injury-riddled 2024 campaign represented the cliff of his career arc. This year, the risk is something less scary - age and the track record of backs the year after heavy usage. McCaffrey has played a full season (and effective postseason) in three of the last four years, and he hasn't appeared to wear down during any of those campaigns. The lack of a clear backup - which we did have the year McCaffrey broke down in Jordan Mason - makes it harder to hedge, but the advantage McCaffrey gives fantasy teams - especially in more shallow leagues with smaller lineups - is worth the investment.
My Answer: "You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it" is a canard. McCaffrey is drafting to win instead of to "not lose". Don't hesitate to snap him up at #6 or later.
SOLID RB1
- Jonathan Taylor, IND **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- James Cook, BUF **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Chase Brown, CIN **VALUE PICK**
- De'Von Achane, MIA **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: If you draw a late first-round draft slot, you are probably going to have to take one, if not two, running backs. Which ones should you target?
Taylor returned to #1 overall value form in the first half of the season, while Daniel Jones was the league's best redemption story. He had one more huge game against Atlanta after the Steelers seemed to "figure out" Jones, and Taylor was held down two more times vs the Chiefs and Texans before Jones went down against the Jaguars, along with Taylor's RB1 fantasy value. Jones will be back for Week 1 or soon after, barring a setback, but we can't be certain the Colts' offense will return to first-half form. Passing on him in the second half of the first round isn't being too conservative. Cook fell to the fourth round last year because of worries about the ability to repeat a 16-touchdown season. He did fall to 12 touchdowns, but also got 102 more carries than in 2024 and was crowned the league rushing champ with 1621 yards. He's a safe end-of-the-first-round pick who still has untapped potential as a receiver. Brown is the most compelling name in this group. His PPR points per game from Weeks 13-17 after Joe Burrow returned was at the same level as Bijan Robinson's production over the course of the season. Brown is a layup in the second round. His ADP should move up into the early second as the summer goes on. Achane lost Mike McDaniel and gained a running quarterback and big X-factor in Malik Willis. Will he be used as often as a receiver with Willis? Will Willis vulture touchdowns? Will the offense be so poor that Achane can't overcome it? We've seen enough from him so far to believe in Achane, but probably not over Brown with so many unknowns around this otherwise proven producer.
My Answer: Chase Brown in the second round.
BOOM/BUST RB1
- Ken Walker III, KC **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Ashton Jeanty, LV **CONSIDER AT ADP**
The Big Question: Will a change of surroundings light the fuse on these backs who disappointed in 2025?
Walker got a big contract and a clear lead-back role from Kansas City. Will the Seahawks look smart for their committee approach that preserved Walker for the Super Bowl run when Walker misses time again after playing all 17 games last year? Or will fantasy players who take Walker get first-round value in the second? We have no idea what Patrick Mahomes II, with a strong runner like Walker, will look like in fantasy, but it could be spectacular. Walker's offensive coordinator from last year will be in charge of building an offense to help Jeanty flourish. He was in one of the worst situations we've ever seen last year, and like Walker, could return first-round value even though he's often there in the second round.
My Answer: I get taking either of these backs over Achane, but not over Chase Brown. Make sure you take Kansas City's fifth-round pick, Emmett Johnson, later if you take Walker, and monitor the training camp news about the Chiefs' running back depth chart.
HIGH FLOOR RB1
- Josh Jacobs, GB **VALUE PICK**
- Saquon Barkley, PHI **AVOID AT ADP**
- David Montgomery, HOU **VALUE PICK**
The Big Question: Is it a sucker bet to take one of these 28/29 year old backs at a "young man's position"?
Jacobs was producing at the same clip as James Cook's season-long numbers when he got hurt in Week 11 and wasn't the same for the rest of the season. We've never thought of him as injury-prone, and he held up under a very heavy workload in 2024. He's a value in the third round. Barkley was held down by the Eagles' playcalling, but he could be affected by the likely A.J. Brown trade. We can't even blame Jalen Hurts' tush-push touchdowns, which decreased significantly last year. He has only dropped to the early second round, which feels too optimistic. Montgomery is creeping up into the fourth round, but he should be in the third, if not second. Joe Mixon produced that level of value two years ago. Montgomery is coming off a few years of limited usage, which should increase the chances of him holding up running behind a new-look Texans offensive line full of maulers. The Houston defense should also ensure run-game-friendly game scripts for Montgomery.
My Answer: Starting with two non-RB picks is viable when you can get Josh Jacobs in the third and David Montgomery in the fourth.