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Over a third of the way through the season, we've adjusted for most of the team and player preseason expectations that proved wrong. Now, it's time to pay attention to the weekly news cycle, seeing who is falling in and out of favor or seeing changes in usage due to transactions and injuries.
Week 7 Risers
QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have radically changed their offensive philosophy this year. Last year, they passed at a 4.6% rate under expectation, ranking 30th in the league. This year, their 7.4% pass rate over expectation is the second-highest, behind only the Cowboys. Young is on pace for 683 pass attempts, 156 more than his previous high. And he isn't dinking and dunking his way down the field. Of 38 quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks, Young's average target depth of 9.4 yards ranks third-highest. A tepid offense through his first few years has been unleashed as a pass-heavy downfield assault. Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan draw more than half the team's targets when playing together. They're providing elite efficiency, ranking eighth and 15th in yards per route run among 85 qualifying receivers, respectively. Young has taken a massive step forward in Year 4, and he's delivering QB1 fantasy production.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs was removed from the Commissioner's Exempt list and is expected to play for the Packers in Week 7. His usage history leads to expectations of bellcow usage upon return. The Packers' run game has struggled without Jacobs. While the rest of the league is feeling the wear and tear of six weeks of games, practice, and travel, it's not a stretch to think Jacobs can show up with fresh legs and immediately deliver elite production. Some reports out of Green Bay suggest Jacobs may be a couple of weeks away from his typical workload, but those who held on through the first couple of months should be rewarded with RB1 production in the second half of the season.
WR Germie Bernard, Pittsburgh Steelers
Injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson presented an opportunity for Bernard, who quickly grasped it. Over the last two weeks, the second-round rookie has caught 17 of 21 targets for 167 yards and a touchdown. He's working as a short-field target for Rodgers, catching high-percentage balls that allow him to create after the catch. Of 85 receivers to run 100-plus routes this year, Bernard's 5.3-yard average target depth ranks 80th. Bernard lines up all over the formation and often runs pre-snap motion, setting him up for high-percentage throws. His cerebral role in the offense meshes well with Aaron Rodgers, and there's no reason to think it won't hold up. Bernard immediately moves into the weekly WR3 discussion, and he's even more valuable in PPR leagues.
Week 7 Fallers
RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Like Rico Dowdle last year in Carolina, Warren went on a tear when Dowdle was injured, racking up 490 scrimmage yards in three games between Weeks 3 and 5. And just as Chuba Hubbard returned and poured cold water on Dowdle's hot streak, Dowdle returned and cooled Warren. Warren still handled the bulk of the work in Week 6, but Dowdle got seven carries and four targets despite a week of limited practices leading up to game day. That workload could cap Warren's upside, and Dowdle's role as an early-down bruiser could make both backs dependent on the game script. Warren was an elite RB1 without Dowdle, but his weekly consistency could be frustrating going forward.
RB Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals
Sometimes you have to zoom out and say "The vibes aren't great." Love picked up an ankle sprain in the preseason. He took a clear backseat to Tyler Allgeier at the start of the year. He voiced frustrations after a loss two weeks ago. The Cardinals just traded away a player they recently invested a top pick in. And now Love is out with an ankle injury. He's shown flashy highlights in his first few games, but his usage and consistency have been lacking. As he manages this ankle injury, his upside case starts to fade. Managers with winning records can try to buy low, but he's looking more like a back-end RB2 than the hopeful RB1 his fantasy managers thought they were getting.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
It might be over for Thomas in Jacksonville. Thomas didn't catch any of his three targets in Week 5. In Week 6, he missed both of his first-half targets before the team benched him in the second half. Thomas had a great rookie season, scoring ten touchdowns and posting an impressive 2.45 yards per route run. Since then, his usage and talent have seemingly faded by the week. Maybe he's quietly quitting on the team to force a trade. Something bizarre is happening, as this iteration of Thomas looks nothing like the dominant rookie from two seasons ago. He's worth stashing through the trade deadline in deep leagues, but you can't trust him as a starter right now.
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