At its core, fantasy football tries to predict the future. And if there's one thing we know about the NFL, it's that it refuses to be predicted.
Six weeks in, our expectations have already been wrong at every level.
The teams.
You'd struggle to find a pundit who wasn't in on the Chargers this preseason. Justin Herbert already has a 5,000-yard season under his belt. Bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt were back from injury. Last year's first-round back Omarion Hampton was healthy. And they landed Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator when many expected him to be a head coach elsewhere. Vegas set their win total at 9.5, and they're winless through six weeks. To hit that projection, they'd need to go 10-1 the rest of the way.
On the other side, nobody expected anything but a disaster in Cleveland. The Browns' 5.5-win total was the third-lowest in the league, ahead of only the Cardinals and Dolphins. A new head coach made an awkward introduction, and the plan seemed to be eating the rest of Deshaun Watson's contract and building for later. Instead, after Sunday's upset over the Ravens, the Browns are 4-2 and in control of the AFC North.
The players.
Christian Watson and Matthew Golden were drafted as the WR27 and WR46 this preseason. Watson had struggled to stay healthy. Golden looked like a bust as a rookie. There were also questions about Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. Through Week 6, they're the WR3 and WR8 in PPR. Both are must-starts in a pass-heavy offense that funnels its targets to two receivers.
The weekly details.
Even the obvious calls miss. Before Sunday's kickoff, a report came out that Najee Harris would start, with ESPN's Jordan Raanan noting, "Cam Skattebo downgraded but still part of the mix." Harris technically got the start. He played 11 snaps and turned four carries into two yards. Skattebo played eight snaps without a touch. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy Jr., who came in with nine touches all season, led the backfield in carries, targets, and yards and scored twice on nine touches.
That unpredictability is what makes fantasy maddening, but it's also part of the game, and the best NFL coaches use it to their advantage.
The Bears started three different quarterbacks by Week 5, going back to Caleb Williams in Week 6. Three different running backs have played 40% or more of the snaps in a given week. Luther Burden III's snap share has swung from 39% to 77%, Cole Kmet's from 42% to 73%, and Colston Loveland's route participation from 68% to 90%. Just when you think you've spotted a trend, Chicago shows you a new look.
The Rams are just as shapeshifting. Some weeks Kyren Williams never leaves the field. Other weeks he splits evenly with Blake Corum. Some game plans revolve around getting Puka Nacua 20-plus touches. Other games live in 13 Personnel and feature the tight ends. Sometimes Davante Adams was the centerpiece. What's hard for defensive coordinators to plan for is just as hard for fantasy managers to project.
So what do we do?
Well, the first layer of expectations has mostly sorted itself out. The Chargers are who they are, and so are the Browns. The Panthers and Texans throw far more than we expected, and the Eagles look headed for a long year. We've seen enough to draw these big-picture conclusions.
The second layer is coming into focus, too. Watson and Golden are in situations built to keep producing. Isiah Likely is a focal point of the Giants' offense. Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. going at similar ADPs looks silly now. Brock Purdy should have gone much earlier. These are just a handful of the player takes we've had to adjust preseason expectations for so far.
The third layer is where the edge lives. Plenty of managers obsess over every detail in September and then kick their feet up for the rest of the season. Their opinions get locked in early. Yours shouldn't. Spotting new trends while your leaguemates are still working off early-season biases is how you pull ahead.
These rankings have mostly absorbed the big preseason misses at team and player levels. From here, the focus shifts to the weekly grind, where each week matters more because fewer remain. A four-week injury in September cost a player about a quarter of his season. The same injury now costs a third of what remains.
The premise stays the same: risers go up, fallers go down. But small news that was easy to ignore early now carries real weight. And that's where you can find your edge.
As a reminder, all movers will be noted with a "+" or "-" showing the change from last week's rankings. Players with a "+" next to their name rose from last week, with a number showing how much they've risen. Players with "-" are noted with their fall from last week's rankings. Significant movers will have a write-up explaining the change. New additions to the rankings will be marked as "New." Use these rankings to guide waiver wire moves and trade decisions. Target risers, cut fallers, and try to improve your roster where you can.
Let's dive in.
Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings
Rest-Of-Season Quarterback Rankings
Aside from the Jalen Hurts news, it was a mostly quiet week for quarterbacks. A few risers showed consistency, but most of this week's movement is minor. Given the chaos at other positions, take this as a blessing.
- QB1 - Josh Allen
- QB2 - Drake Maye (+1)
- QB3 - Brock Purdy (+1)
- QB4 - Lamar Jackson (-2)
- QB5 - Caleb Williams (+2)
- QB6 - Joe Burrow (-1)
- QB7 - Patrick Mahomes II (-1)
- QB8 - Jayden Daniels
- QB9 - Jared Goff
- QB10 - Dak Prescott
- QB11 - Trevor Lawrence
- QB12 - Bryce Young (+4) - The Panthers have radically changed their offensive philosophy this year. Last year, they passed at a 4.6% rate under expectation, ranking 30th in the league. This year, their 7.4% pass rate over expectation is the second-highest, behind only the Cowboys. Young is on pace for 683 pass attempts, 156 more than his previous high. And he isn't dinking and dunking his way down the field. Of 38 quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks, Young's average target depth of 9.4 yards ranks third-highest. A tepid offense through his first few years has been unleashed as a pass-heavy downfield assault. Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan draw more than half the team's targets when playing together. They're providing elite efficiency, ranking eighth and 15th in yards per route run among 85 qualifying receivers, respectively. Young has taken a massive step forward in Year 4, and he's delivering QB1 fantasy production.
- QB13 - Matthew Stafford (-1)
- QB14 - Tyler Shough (+1)
- QB15 - Kyler Murray (+2)
- QB16 - Jordan Love (+2)
- QB17 - C.J. Stroud (+7) - Stroud is another 2023 draftee finding his footing in 2026. Through Week 6, he's passed for 1,714 yards, second only to Matthew Stafford. His average target is traveling 9.2 yards downfield, the fifth-highest in the league. His 32 deep attempts tie Aaron Rodgers for the league lead. Despite these numbers, Stroud has thrown only one interception. The trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. last week shows the Texans are pushing chips in on this newfound passing attack. Stroud provided QB1 numbers as a rookie, and seems to have found his groove again.
- QB18 - Bo Nix (-4)
- QB19 - Kirk Cousins (+11) - A few quarterbacks could get the backstage cane late in the season, and Cousins is assuredly one of them. The Raiders drafted Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick this year, and the broadcast cuts to him staying warm on the sideline after every Cousins mistake. But Cousins is the QB3 through Week 6, scoring 19.35 fantasy points per game. His history with Klint Kubiak and a star-studded offense helped him get off to a quick start. The Raiders' schedule gets much tougher in the coming months, and Mendoza could be on the field more often. But as long as Cousins is starting, he deserves consideration as a back-end QB1.
- QB20 - Deshaun Watson (+1)
- QB21 - Michael Penix Jr. (+2)
- QB22 - Justin Herbert (-3)
- QB23 - Daniel Jones (-3)
- QB24 - Geno Smith (-2)
- QB25 - Aaron Rodgers (+2)
- QB26 - Sam Darnold (-1)
- QB27 - Baker Mayfield (+1)
- QB28 - Malik Willis (-2)
- QB29 - Cam Ward (+3)
- QB30 - Tanner McKee (New)
- QB31 - Jacoby Brissett
- QB32 - Jameis Winston (-3)
- QB33 - J.J. McCarthy (+3)
- QB34 - Fernando Mendoza
- QB35 - Jalon Daniels (-2)
- QB36 - Tyler Huntley (+2)
- QB37 - Carson Wentz (-2)
- QB38 - Joe Milton III (New)
- QB39 - Shedeur Sanders (-2)
- QB40 - Justin Fields (-1)
- QB41 - Mac Jones
- QB42 - Jalen Hurts (-29) - Hurts is likely out for the year after being placed on IR. The Eagles are on a four-game skid in a year marred by injuries, retirements, and major player trades. It's difficult to justify stashing him in shallow leagues without IR spots. Rebuilding dynasty managers may want to buy low, but Hurts' long-term outlook is still uncertain.
- QB43 - Tyson Bagent (-3)
- QB44 - Drew Lock (-2)
- QB45 - Tua Tagovailoa (-2)
- QB46 - Ty Simpson (-2)
- QB47 - Carson Beck (-2)
- QB48 - Marcus Mariota (-2)
- QB49 - Riley Leonard (-2)
- QB50 - Cooper Rush (-2)
- QB51 - Case Keenum (-2)
- QB52 - Will Howard (-2)
- QB53 - Gardner Minshew II (-2)
- QB54 - Joe Flacco (-2)
- QB55 - Athan Kaliakmanis (-2)