The height of fantasy football draft season is almost here! Let's go over the running back landscape now that we've had a month of camp and preseason to update our understanding.
ELITE RB1
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Bijan Robinson, ATL **CONSIDER AT ADP**
I've flipped Gibbs ahead of Robinson since the spring because the Falcons will probably be starting Jack Strand by the end of the season, but otherwise these are still your two top picks in 1QB leagues.
FEELING LUCKY?
- Christian McCaffrey, SF **CONSIDER AT ADP**
There was a "tightness" related multi-week absence from practice for McCaffrey that some speculated was actually contract-related, but McCaffrey has returned to practice and divulged that it was all part of the plan to keep him healthy during the season. We can put the specters of 2024 to rest - for now. You have permission to take McCaffrey as high as #3.
CAREER YEAR COMING
- James Cook III, BUF **VALUE PICK**
Between numerous reports that the Bills would use Cook more as a receiver given new offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael's history with Alvin Kamara in New Orleans, the Bills offense riding the momentum of the addition of DJ Moore and Josh Allen not playing with a broken foot this year, and the smile he flashed at former Footballguys staff Matt Harmon when he asked Cook if he was getting more targets this year, it feels like the best is yet to come for Dalvin's little brother. Invest with confidence in the second half of the first round.
PROVEN HIGH CEILING RB1
- Jonathan Taylor, IND **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- De'Von Achane, MIA **CONSIDER AT ADP**
If you can't get Cook in the late first, either of these backs will do. The Colts still haven't gotten Alec Pierce back fully, but Daniel Jones looks fully healthy and ready to pick up where he left off last year - which was not where he was in the first half of the season when Taylor was rampaging through poor defenses to put up week-winning ceiling games on the reg. Achane might lose some red zone opportunity to Malik Willis, and running quarterbacks aren't known for targeting running backs heavily. But the Dolphins are clearly going to be run-heavy, and Achane is the only proven receiver on the roster. He'll be fine.
UNPROVEN HIGH CEILING RB1
- Chase Brown, CIN **CONSIDER AT ADP**
- Ken Walker III, KC **CONSIDER AT ADP**
Brown was a strong RB1 down the stretch last year with Joe Burrow. All we need is Brown and Burrow to both stay healthy all year, and we should get a first-round value at a second-round price. Walker is going to get a chance to shoulder the kind of workload that makes first-round fantasy running backs. Eric Bieniemy has toughened him, and the Chiefs need Walker to carry the offense while Patrick Mahomes II rounds into form coming off of reconstructive knee surgery. The only question is whether Walker's body will hold up, but the risk and reward balance each other out in the second round.
HIGH FLOOR/HIGH CEILING RB1
- Javonte Williams, DAL **VALUE PICK**
- Saquon Barkley, PHI **AVOID AT ADP**
- Derrick Henry, BAL **AVOID AT ADP**
- Omarion Hampton, LAC **AVOID AT ADP**
You can confidently project this group to lead their backfields in carries. Williams is in the best running game, and he doesn't have a quarterback getting tush push touchdowns, so he's first. Barkley could be resurgent with a healthier line and Kevin Patullo gone, but fantasy drafters are showing a lot of trust in the Eagles offense to bounce back, taking Barkley in the early second. Henry isn't a gross overvalue in the late second, but that's still a round ahead of Williams, and Father Time will eventually win. Hampton will have a role similar to Henry's, but hasn't proven he is at Henry's level, though he will get the Mike McDaniel bump. Hampton is still being drafted at his ceiling, which is generally a no-no.
