The Top 10: Week 2

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 2 Matt Waldman Published 09/15/2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect fantasy football

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 1'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section. 

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Drake Maye It's the small number of plays with gravitas that defines a fantasy career at quarterback. 
  2. Ashton Jeanty is healthy, and the offensive line is healthier. Mike Washington Jr. is redundancy; that's all.
  3. Could D.J. Moore's greatest contribution to the Bills' offense be the fantasy value of Dalton Kincaid?
  4. Lamar Jackson to Zay Flowers looked like the most potent combo on an NFL field in Week 1.
  5. The Colts Offense: Abandon Ship?
  6. Kaelon Black could be the next Kyren Williams type of back, but err on the side of caution. 
  7. Stefon Diggs was underrated this summer. Buy.
  8. Antonio Williams had a good week. Sell? 
  9. Was I a year early on the Pat Freiermuth rebound train? 
  10. Sonny Styles: It's his world; no one is welcoming him to the NFL.

1. Drake Maye Got His Flowers Too Early

You probably saw the buzzy headline last week: Drake Maye is 0-12 against quality teams. It's the complementary analysis from last year that the Patriots had a ridiculously easy schedule. Should these points dissuade you from having Maye as your fantasy quarterback?

The short answer is no, with an asterisk. The Patriots' schedule is tougher than it was, but there will be quality matchups that could translate to strong production for Maye. This short answer hinges on the health of the surrounding talent, and the short-term loss of A.J. Brown could hurt Maye's production.

The long-term answer is yes, because 1-2 seasons of short-term production is not as good a predictor of long-term quarterback success as studying the smaller number of plays that have gravitas. As I've written about in the past, the 3-5 plays in a game that define the outcome of a contest matter more than short-term stats. 

If the quarterback is having difficulty managing late-game situations, the red zone, the black zone, and knowing when to be aggressive and when to limit aggression and reactivity, that quarterback's long-term outlook will be that of a journeyman. Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, and Mitchell Trubisky are all good examples of early-round quarterbacks with promising stretches of production who couldn't put it all together. They never mastered those 3-5 plays of situational football at the elevated pro level that define weekly outcomes. 

Drake Maye looked like his worst tape at North Carolina against Seattle in the Super Bowl. While we can account for struggles up front, Maye also looked lost as a decision-maker and field reader. All good quarterbacks make mistakes -- Josh Allen nearly threw the game away against Houston this week. On the next play, Allen delivered a rope to the same receiver for the winning score.

Quarterbacks who go on tilt repeatedly after they make a mistake? Different story. This is my concern with Maye. 

This week against the Seahawks, we saw the good, bad, and ugly of Maye's game. 

The Good

When Maye can stay in the pocket, he finds efficient solutions. This makes life easier on his teammates and harder on opposing defenses. 

Maye can spot blitzes, and there are scenarios where he understands how the coverage dictates the quick solutions. This slant to A.J. Brown is a perfect example. 

There are also scrambles Maye executes that are the best decision for the scenario unfolding in front of him. Based on Maye's first read, he doesn't see the whip route breaking open in the left flat. He made the most of the situation. 

Maye has shown -- even in Week 1's debacle -- promise with stringing good plays together after a bad decision. This two-play combination is a good example.

The Bad

It's good Maye earned positive yards, but these are the targets a top quarterback delivers as soon as they see the coverage. This was one of those plays Maye shouldn't be passing up. 

Top passers climb the pocket and make efficient throws. When a quarterback climbs, he keeps the receivers' routes in play without the need to re-route and doesn't stress his entire offensive line to redirect their efforts. Top passers know where their check-downs are.

Maye is leaning too hard on his legs at the expense of using his mind and arm with greater efficiency. The more efficient a quarterback's solution, the less energy he and his offense use and the more the opposing defense gets reckless trying to find solutions to defend him. This leads to coverage breaks and mismatches. 

This play could be judged as a mixed effort of good and bad, but if we're going to judge Maye to an MVP standard that the public was touting last year, then I'd call it a mixed effort of neutral and bad when considering that Maye could have found a receiver instead of throwing the ball away. 

The Ugly

Hospital balls are ugly. If you're throwing these in a game to decide a playoff spot, the division, or a postseason game, sometimes you have to put your receivers in difficult situations. In the season opener, on a weekly basis, or when there were better placement choices? It's best to avoid dismantling your offense on your own. 

Game management immaturity is a notable problem, and Drake Maye must improve here. This is one of those scenarios with gravitas that can turn the outcome of a game inside-out. These plays can reverse the flow of momentum. And yes, momentum is real.

Maye's gaffe up 10 is the momentum shifter. Romeo Doubs' drop kept that momentum in the wrong direction for New England. On the next play, Maye tilts. 

The best QBs have proven their emotional resilience on the field for a few years after defenses adjust to their weaknesses. This season is going to be a referendum for Maye. 

Here's one of Maye's most careless decisions that ended the game. 

These moments are tough for QBs. I feel for them, but the bar is high for success. If you're thinking about Maye as a dynasty prospect, he's still in the thick of proving that he's a long-term starter. This may seem incorrect if you follow Maye's media love and 2025 statistics, but until he can deliver in the gravitas scenarios more often, the jury is still out. 

I've seen improvement from Maye, but after his last two starts, I'm not convinced he's a go-to dynasty starter for a long build.

2. Ashton Jeanty: All Systems Go

We had concerns about Jeanty's ankle after a late preseason injury. The Raiders' offensive line was one of the worst-performing units in a long time.

There have also been questions about Jeanty's skills. Not from me; I think that's from analytics and stats analysts who don't look at the context of the player and his film after seeing a statistical correlation that isn't sensible - like only drafting receivers above a specific height and weight.

Based on what I've seen, Jeanty is healthy and ready for a good year, maybe even a top-five season. I've heard comparisons between Jeanty and Trent Richardson. I think Jeanty is closer to LaDainian Tomlinson than Richardson. 

Odds are against Jeanty reaching Tomlinson's heights, at least until his surrounding talent is much better than it is. That said, center Tyler Linderbaum is a massive step in the right direction. 

Left tackles may be the most valuable offensive linemen financially because the specific physical demands of the position require a rare athlete with a minimum size requirement. If it weren't for the size and athletic demands, I'd say center is the most valuable position. 

Centers must process information at a high level and quickly. They must help guards with double teams, adjust fast to changing information, communicate and coordinate the blocking schemes against blitzes, and perform a wide variety of blocks. 

The better your center, the more cohesive your offensive line, and that cohesion decreases breakdowns that lead to bad plays. Linderbaum is one of the best centers in football. 

A healthy Jeanty combined with Linderman and a veteran like Kirk Cousins, this team should make fewer mistakes than 2025's disaster. We should also see Jeanty in situations where the Raiders can leverage his receiving skills more often. 

Look for Jeanty to remain the engine in this Raiders offense. Mike Washington Jr. may get a chance to prove himself at some point. Until then, he's a redundancy option and a back who might earn clean-up duty when the game is out of hand. 

3. Dalton Kincaid: DJ Moore's Greatest Beneficiary?

The more an offense can stretch a defense in a variety of directions during a given play, the more an offense can exploit athletic mismatches with their personnel. DJ Moore's ability to stretch the field in either direction as a deep threat or as a runner after the catch forces opposing coverages to cheat Moore's way and leave players like Kincaid in true one-on-one scenarios with advantageous leverage where they can make big plays. 

This is a Smash Concept below. D.J. Moore is running the whip route underneath and drawing the primary attention of coverage while Kincaid runs the sail behind it. Moore's proven skills as a dangerous runner force the defense to make him the top priority in a zone look. Kincaid benefits. 

Moore's influence will be felt when it comes to Kincaid's production, but so will the Bills' continued use of 13 personnel. When an offense rolls with three tight ends, opposing defenses are on high alert for a devastating ground game that often has a size and box mismatch that leads to big plays. 

When offenses in 13 personnel run play action. This leads to athletic mismatches in Kincaid's favor. 

I'm going to agree with one of the posters in this thread that Kincaid's health has been a factor with his usage, but also think the increase of 13 personnel into the game plan has opened things up for Kincaid before DJ Moore joined the offense. 

Now that the Bills have both Moore and increased use of 13 personnel, Kincaid could finally emerge as a top-three fantasy tight end. 

4. Lamar Jackson to Zay Flowers: Potent

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Tags:
Matt Waldman fantasy football top 10 2026 week 2 Footballguys Top 10 Zay Flowers Lamar Jackson Drake Maye Colts Offense Daniel Jones tyler warren Antoion Williams Stefon Diggs Sonny Styles Pat Freiermuth Kaelon Black ashton jeanty Mike Washington Jr.
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