MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.
The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.
While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for over 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 7'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section.
The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- Caleb Williams is on his way to becoming an elite fantasy passer. The "buy" window has closed.
- Luther Burden III is on his way to becoming an elite fantasy receiver. The "buy" window is closing.
- Omar Cooper Jr. is a good prospect and could continue having success, but there's a short-term trap door.
- Mason Taylor made two plays that were common on his LSU tape, and the Jets could be waking up to him.
- Malachi Fields might be a better fit with J.J. McCarthy than Jaxson Dart or Jameison Winston.
- Cam Skattebo is already one of the best RBs at wearing down defenses. He needs a QB to help him do it.
- Rico Dowdle is good, but Jaylen Warren is close enough to Dowdle, if not better, to remain the lead back.
- Colston Loveland's Transitions: Why He's So Good
- Aaron Rodgers still has the physical talent of a good starting QB. He needs better weapons
- Ja'Marr Chase route mastery.
1. Caleb Williams Will Become an Elite Fantasy QB
Williams has all the physical, technical, conceptual, and emotional tools of an elite performer, and quarterback is a stage performance medium.
Let's talk about the skills below the surface of big-media analysis that differentiate top quarterbacks from impressive highlight-oriented players who lack the discipline, awareness, and maturity of the best. The first notable attribute is Williams' emerging grasp of situational football that naysayers were too heavy-handed with their doubts.
Here are three plays that don't show up in the box score prominently, if at all. Still, they keep the Bears in football games. We've seen established veterans with the "elite" or "near-elite" labels fail in these scenarios repeatedly.
Throwaways, check downs, and acceptable sacks are three signs of mature work from a field general. Considering the long-held criticism of Williams has been that he'd lean too much on his physical talents to the detriment of his organization, the fact that Williams is only one of three quarterbacks who have reached 50 touchdowns while only throwing 15 or fewer interceptions is a compelling counterargument.
Why Caleb Williams has a low INT rate after three years in the NFL despite a coaching/organizational travesty during his rookie year? Williams has been better than most young QBs at knowing how to manage situational football. He has made mistakes. He'll make more. But throways have been common and correct for the scenarios. This is 2nd and 7 inside the NE 30. NE's triangles of coverage have these routes locked down.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Game management and Caleb Williams 3rd and 7 up three deep in #DaBears own territory. Reads the two-man combo on right vs C2, Pivots left and timely recognition of flat LB who could cut off Burden's route, so he checks it. What you want to see in this game script scenario. https://t.co/S4lSDu2lwh
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Neither of Caleb Williams' sacks in NE's territory concern me. Coverage was strong in both cases as rush arrived. #Dabears https://t.co/oU1ffgEHO4
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Quarterbacks with less impressive ball-carrying talents than Williams have failed to meet lofty expectations in the league because they have difficulty climbing a pocket, or remain steadfast in their belief that running around like a silent movie slapstick comedian is the best way.
Williams has his share of slapstick forays that wander the entire expanse of the backfield, but they have been far too often necessary.
Caleb Williams escapes four defenders to gain five yards. It's nice to have surrounding talent where these scenarios don't happen as often as they did as a rookie. #DaBears https://t.co/GHGOWMB66W
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
When watching Williams climb pockets, it's clear he understands that an efficient climb allows receivers to maintain their original routes and blockers with advantageous leverage to maintain their position.
Williams isn't wearing out his teammates, breaking down good blocks, and forcing re-routes from receivers when he doesn't have to. The better his line has gotten, the less often we see Kyler Murray's or pre-Tampa Baker Mayfield's behaviors that got them tickets out of the towns that drafted them.
Note how Colston Loveland uses his inside step on consecutive inside steps to achieve a tight turn on his break inside. Nice climb and throw by Caleb Williams #Bears https://t.co/oxHV1ztKsN
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Caleb Williams #DaBears Reduces the left shoulder, resets, and fires to Odunze. https://t.co/5c3GEaFUGg
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
The final element with Williams' game is his timely throws in late-game scenarios. Top stage performers thrive under pressure.
If they make a mistake, they recover more often than they tilt. This has been Caleb Williams in college and the NFL.
Caleb Williams has a knack for these timely throws in late-game scenarios. We've seen this throw a lot already, but the placement from this angle highlights how impressive it is. #DaBears https://t.co/d6PqnT5vYo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Williams is a playmaker on par with Josh Allen and has an equal-to-greater capacity to play with wisdom and deliver timely moments. Williams is the quarterback I'd want to build around in dynasty leagues. He's now a premium pick.
2. Luther Burden III Will Become an Elite Fantasy WR
The stats modeling analysis that I saw on Burden led to comparisons to Mecole Hardman Jr. Some analysts noted this was probably inaccurate; others didn't.
When I hear analytics or stats-modeling analysts say that their data is tracking exactly what happens on the field, it's a problematic statement. It's tracking results from the field in a bottom-line manner. It's not tracking the processes that replicate those results on a predictable level.
When analysts with this mindset track a prospect's results who is in a limited role due to his offense, they write off skills the player possesses that aren't being used enough to make a dent in their analysis. The problem with this approach is that players like Burden or Marvin Jones Jr. years ago display a refinement with techniques and concepts that will lead to expanded roles in the NFL despite smaller stats from limited roles in college that lead to inaccurate assessments.
When a wide receiver is making his living doing a lot in traffic to earn seven-yard gains, it's not always going to show up favorably in the analytics of modeling analysis compared to players who get enough deep and intermediate shots leading them into wide open spaces.
Luther Burden III #DABears Results (stats) & results-based metrics w/o examining technique, concepts, and what's projectable on the field can lead to under-appreciating plays like this one. Eludes 4 men & earns 7 yards YAC with agility, quicks, and power. "How" > "What" https://t.co/ty6EdHoWkt
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2026
Still, when you watch what Burden does on a play like the one above, you should see what he can offer in open space when running a fuller route tree. The Bears have often made Burden an extension of the ground game, but he has shown that he is much more than that.
3. Omar Cooper Jr. Is Good, But His Film Is A Short-Term Trap Door
Omar Cooper Jr. is a good prospect with two strong fantasy games. The best plays from both games are plays that highlight the shortcomings or close calls of the opposing defenses more than the skills of Cooper.
Omar Cooper Jr. making plays during his first two weeks. Two vertical catches: - 1 broken coverage - 1 near-miss by DB He's getting position and earning the ball. Just questioning if these odd scenarios change will Cooper and Smith find their bag this year? https://t.co/GsXP91uG1b
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 26, 2026
I'm not telling you to avoid Cooper for your rosters, but I am saying that we haven't seen sustainable plays to start Cooper in formats with 2-3 receivers in a lineup. If you started Cooper the past two weeks, congratulations, but understand that without the plays above that weren't as dependent on his skills as they were on the mistakes of others, we wouldn't be talking about him at all, yet.
4. Hey Jets, Feed Mason Taylor
Kenyon Sadiq has speed to burn, and he extends well for the ball, but the better all-around tight end for my money is Mason Taylor. A solid blocker, a good route runner against man and zone, and an excellent contested-catch option, the Jets finally leveraged Taylor's skills at the catch point on Sunday, leading to a pair of scores and a two-point conversion.
Thngs Mason Taylor could do at LSU and it's about time to see the Jets use him this way. Excellent release inside and high-point vs tight coverage but wide-open leverage base don defender's position to the QB. #Jets https://t.co/1MrH4F4aXw
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 26, 2026
Mason Taylor TD2 Efficient spin to work free in route and beautiful high point vs tight coverage again. Coninue freeing him... #Jets https://t.co/NsFhupUIFA
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 26, 2026
Mason Taylor two-point conversion - Late release and good awareness of spot to settle - Good boundary work #Jets https://t.co/w1OwS45zHh
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 26, 2026
There aren't many tight ends in the league that win these tight coverage throws as consistently as I've seen from Taylor in the past. The fact that Geno Smith trusted Taylor enough on two targets of this type in one week is an indication that Smith has seen these skills in practice.
This begs the question: If Smith has seen them, where is the Jets' staff? I'm not expecting the Jets to increase targets or pivot to Taylor anytime soon, but if it happens, you can see why.