Slate Overview
Just Enough to Be Dangerous
Week 4 can feel later in the season than it actually is.
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Three games are enough to trick our brains into thinking early-season trends are permanent, even though we're still dealing with a dangerously tiny sample. Snap share, routes run, targets, carries, and red-zone usage can tell us who teams want to feature, but efficiency and touchdown production are less predictable. In tournaments, we're always looking to exploit the field's overconfidence. Our opponents know exactly who the top players are through three weeks, but what they may not know is which players have truly underperformed on their opportunities and, with a larger sample of similar usage, are likely to start closing the gap between their potential fantasy scoring and actual fantasy scoring. Expected fantasy points (xFP) separates opportunity from production. Each carry and target is assigned an expected fantasy value based on the historical results of similar plays, using variables such as field position, down and distance, air yards, target depth, and proximity to the goal line. Add those plays together, and xFP estimates how many fantasy points a player’s workload should have produced. Underperforming xFP alone isn't enough to make someone a great tournament play. Sometimes a player is simply failing to convert opportunities because he's bad. For tournaments, we want talented players generating strong xFP whose actual fantasy production hasn't caught up yet. The league's top 15 xFP underperformers entering Week 4 are listed to the right. Besides Michael Wilson, none project for much ownership this week, and a handful possess proven GPP-winning ceilings. It’s as useful a place as any to start hunting for contrarian tournament plays. |
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Top Game Environments
Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.
Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.
| Home | Away | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | Jaguars | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 |
| Bills | Patriots | BUF -6.5 | 49.5 |
| Texans | Cowboys | HOU -3 | 47.5 |
| 49ers | Broncos | SF -2.5 | 47.5 |
| Raiders | Chiefs | KC -4.5 | 47.5 |
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Identifying the most common roster construction helps us find ways to gain leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: We should expect common quarterback spending to end up in the $5-$6K range. This week's usual suspects are Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) in a potential Cincinnati shootout and Jacoby Brissett ($5,000), whose passing volume is starting to approach the torrid pace he set in the second half last season. Optimizers like Kyler Murray ($5,300) against the lowly Dolphins' defense, but it remains to be seen how heavily the field will roster him without Justin Jefferson (ankle) in the lineup.
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson are off the main slate, leaving Christian McCaffrey ($7,700) and Ken Walker III ($8,200) as the most appealing RB1 options. Chalky builds will most likely feature McCaffrey, who returned to his familiar workhorse role last week, and Aaron Jones Sr. ($6,000), whose game script sets up nicely with the Vikings favored by double digits at home against Miami. Chase Brown's ($6,100) salary has dropped $1,000 since Week 1 after three weeks of middling production. His perceived value and high-scoring game environment should make three-running-back builds especially popular.
WR: Injuries and soft pricing have opened up tremendous value in the middle range. Parker Washington ($6,500) remains at least $500 too cheap. Jordan Addison ($5,300) scored 20 DraftKings points last week and won't have to compete with Jefferson for targets. Michael Wilson ($5,500) and Matthew Golden ($5,400) are underpriced relative to their target volume. Further down, Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300) will operate as the Eagles' WR1 with DeVonta Smith sidelined by a hamstring injury. Expect the crowd to pick two from that group and spend up at WR1, most often with Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,100), Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100), or Garrett Wilson ($6,800).
TE: Wicks is the closest thing to a punt play at running back or wide receiver, which leaves little room to spend at tight end. While it's not difficult to get up to Brock Bowers ($6,900) or Trey McBride ($6,500) thanks to the slate's loose pricing, we’ll probably see more T.J. Hockenson ($3,300), who couldn't be much cheaper and gets a target bump with Jefferson sidelined.
Flip the Common Build: When pricing is loose, it's harder to gain leverage with roster construction. More people can afford strong plays across all positions, so spending differently at one position doesn't necessarily help you separate. The best way to attack a slate like this is to get different through combinations, not individual players. You can still play plenty of good chalk, but avoid pairing the same popular pieces together as the field. For example, play only one of the mid-tier wide receiver values and use the savings to get both Chase and Smith-Njigba into the same lineup.
Leverage Plays
Build your roster with your favorite plays from the common construction, then selectively mix in these players, whose chances of landing in a winning lineup exceed their projected roster percentage.
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