DraftKings GPP Domination Week 3

Slate Overview

The Scenic Route to First Place

Four of this week's five projected highest-scoring games feature favorites of about a touchdown or more. Our opponents are going to pile into these games and build around the same basic script: the heavy favorite jumps out to an early lead, controls the game, and leans on the run while the underdog fails to keep pace.

To gain leverage, you don't have to fade the top game environments. Instead, think about how those games can reach the same outcome differently.

• The blowout takes the long way around - The underdog keeps pace long enough to force the favorite to stay aggressive, preserving passing volume before the game eventually gets out of hand.
• The favorite scores mostly through the air - The chalk running back can disappoint even in a comfortable win while the team's quarterback and receivers account for most of the scoring.
• The losing side concentrates its production - A trailing team can funnel targets to one or two pass-catchers, creating strong run-back options even if the final score isn't close.

Winning lineups can still come from the most obvious game environments without following the same path to production as everyone else.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.

Identifying Common Roster Construction

Identifying the most common roster construction helps us find ways to gain leverage without sacrificing ceiling.

QB: Quarterback value exists at every salary tier this week. Josh Allen ($8,000) is expensive yet fairly priced on the high end. Patrick Mahomes II ($6,200) is at least $500 too cheap in the upper mid-range, and Jameis Winston ($4,000) is viable against the Titans at the minimum salary. Many entrants will be wary of Winston after his ugly relief appearance Monday night but will still look for savings to fit two expensive running backs and a top wide receiver, nudging common quarterback spending toward NFL passing yardage leader Tyler Shough ($5,400) at the low end and Mahomes at the high end. 

RB: The fastest way to build a lineup that looks like most other people's is to start with Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800) and Ken Walker III ($7,400) at running back. Both are great plays as heavy home favorites against suspect defenses, but they’ll each clear 35% tournament ownership and appear in the same lineup together frequently. You can still win with the combination, but the rest of the lineup has to do more work to separate. Jaylen Warren ($5,700) should join them in three-running-back builds with Rico Dowdle sidelined, assuming Warren’s injured shoulder checks out.

WR: Parker Washington's $6,000 salary is downright insulting compared to his opportunity and production through two games. He'll be the field's first click at wide receiver. Shough's popularity will drag Chris Olave ($7,200) along for the ride as his top stacking partner. The salary cap doesn't leave much room for additional spending, which should concentrate ownership in the mid-$4K range. Rashod Bateman ($4,700), Devaughn Vele ($4,400), Xavier Worthy ($4,400), and Malik Washington ($4,200) all fit the common build. Vele could end up the most popular of the group thanks to his comfortable salary and correlation with Shough, particularly in lineups that can't fit Olave. 

TE: Dalton Schultz ($4,200) was good chalk last week, and the crowd will chase him again despite a $1,000 salary increase. Travis Kelce ($4,500) is also coming off a huge Week 2 performance and somehow seems to be aging in reverse. One of the two should appear in typical builds, and we may see lots of lineups with both when entrants want to spend up from Olave to Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900).

Flip the Common Build: The easy answer is to forego heavy running back spending in favor of elite wide receivers. Lineups built around two of Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600), Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100), and CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) did quite well in tournaments last week, and ownership projections indicate they're positioned to do so again. Another simple way to gain leverage is to avoid Gibbs and Walker in the same lineup. Jonathan Taylor ($7,600) and Derrick Henry ($7,700) carry similar enough median projections at roughly one-third the ownership. Gibbs and Walker are great on-paper plays, but it's hard to argue they're three times as likely to land in a first-place lineup.

Core Targets