As we get closer to the start of training camps, NFL teams will continue their ongoing voluntary OTA sessions, capping their offseason programs with mandatory minicamps. While we watch for developments from the ongoing work, I've been revisiting and resetting some important positional issues heading into the summer. First, it was Quarterback Battles, Real and Imagined; two weeks ago, it was Know Your Frienemy; Ambiguous Backfields; and last week, it was All the WR1s and Then Some.
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This week, it's the tight ends; we started on Monday with the Gold Tier. Today, we dive into . . .
The Rising-Star Tier
There was a time when rookie tight ends were persona non grata in fantasy drafts. That's changed in recent years, and last year's rookie class -- three of whom make up the bulk of this tier -- continued to shine. Based on their current Average Draft Position (ADP), the fantasy hive mind expects their strong performances to carry over to this season.
- TE3 Colston Loveland (pick 4.04)
- TE4 Tyler Warren (pick 5.01)
- TE5 Harold Fannin Jr. (pick 5.10)
- TE6 Tucker Kraft (pick 6.08)
Is there some risk involved with this tier? Sure. We have ascending talent with something to prove -- including one player coming off a torn ACL.
But upside at reasonable prices makes the potential reward worth it.
Hard to Ignore a Strong Finish
While I could argue that Chicago's Colston Loveland wasn't one of the two rookie tight ends who delivered legitimate breakout seasons last year, his strong end-of-season run has the attention of fantasy investors this year.
Over his first six NFL games, Loveland had a measly 11 catches for 116 yards and no touchdowns. But he dominated down the stretch, using a combination of size, athleticism, and target volume to deliver TE2 numbers from Week 9 on.
Over his final four games, including the NFL playoffs, Loveland dominated. He averaged 12.0 targets per game (with more than 10 in each contest) and 19.4 fantasy points.
For perspective, ESPN's Mike Clay noted there have been only 12 instances of a tight end seeing at least 10 targets in four consecutive regular-season games in NFL history (and only one was a rookie).
In 16 appearances, Loveland racked up 58 receptions for 713 yards and six touchdown catches, leading the NFC North champions in each category, demonstrating why he was the first player drafted in the Ben Johnson era.
With Chicago's offense evolving and vacated targets (after DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo) available, Loveland has a real shot to finish as a top-three tight end, and possibly challenge for the overall TE1 spot.
But you're going to pay for it.
Loveland is being drafted as TE3, behind Arizona's Trey McBride and the Raiders' Brock Bowers, early in Round 4.
Vacated Targets Add to the Appeal
The first of the two aforementioned rookie breakouts, the Colts' Tyler Warren, had a solid-but-unspectacular inaugural season.
Yes, Warren, the 14th overall pick in the 2025 draft, went on to make the Pro Bowl on the strength of 76 receptions for 817 yards and four touchdowns, plus another score on the ground.
And I should acknowledge his 817 receiving yards set a franchise rookie record by a tight end and marked the most by a Colt at the position since Dallas Clark's 2009 campaign.
But it might have been more spectacular than solid if Daniel Jones hadn't suffered a season-ending Achilles injury 12 weeks into the season.
Through the 12 games in which Jones was healthy from start to finish, Warren averaged 4.8 receptions and 57.0 receiving yards. In those 12 games, Warren scored five touchdowns and averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game.
In five games without Jones, Warren fell to 6.3 points per game and failed to find the end zone. He scored his final touchdown of the season in Week 13.
Including Week 14 when Jones went down in the first quarter, Warren averaged 3.6 catches and 26.6 yards through the team's final five outings.
So if we're looking for reasons he'll improve this season, I'll remind you that Indy's offense hit 20 points in all but one game with Jones under center, and the veteran quarterback is ahead of schedule in his recovery.
More importantly, Warren, who is already a featured target, might see even more work after Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to the Steelers.
How much more?
According to NFL.com's Matt Okada, "Warren's floor should be close to 120 targets, and he could realistically reach 140-150 in a breakout campaign."
Last year, Warren caught 76 of his 112 targets.
As SI.com's Drake Wally suggested, if this math is applied to 150 targets, then Warren's 67.9 catch rate would hypothetically lead to 102 catches.
Whatever the case, the anticipated workload, especially if Jones is ready to go Week 1 -- which seems possible -- puts Warren in a good spot as TE4 with a fifth-round price tag.