Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
The Reset Rolls On
As we get closer to the start of training camps, NFL teams will continue their ongoing voluntary OTA sessions, capping their offseason programs with mandatory minicamps. While we watch for developments from the ongoing work, I'll be revisiting and resetting some important positional issues heading into the summer. Two weeks ago, it was Quarterback Battles, Real and Imagined; last week, it was Know Your Frienemy; Ambiguous Backfields.
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This week, we'll be sorting out the wide receivers, from stem to stern -- starting with the . . .
The Top-Shelf Tier
Based on current Average Draft Position (ADP) data, three wide receivers are being drafted in the first half of Round 1.
- WR1 Ja'Marr Chase (pick 1.03)
- WR2 Puka Nacua (pick 1.04)
- WR3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (pick 1.05)
There are solid arguments and narratives backing that order.
Bulletproof
Those are some great offenses, but the Bengals still take the top spot. Quarterback Joe Burrow has legitimate QB1 overall upside with the weapons he has, and the fact that their defense -- even with some effort put into improving it this offseason -- forces them to keep scoring.
The hope is that Cincinnati will be better this year, but by how much?
Burrow was asked at a press conference last Wednesday if there are any individual milestones he's targeting during the 2026 season. "I'm pretty close to the Bengals franchise touchdown record. I'm like 50 or something away, so that would be nice to break this year," Burrow said.
Burrow is actually 47 touchdown passes away from tying Andy Dalton's franchise record. But what's a touchdown or three between friends?
Fortunately, his top receivers are dominant. Ja'Marr Chase is the best in all of fantasy football, and Tee Higgins has WR1 upside with a WR2 floor.
The focus here is on Chase, who is the best bet to be the overall WR1 every year.
He's had two seasons with double-digit touchdowns, and he's coming off a 2025 season in which he led the league in pass routes and targets for the second season in a row. His 185 targets last year were good for a 30.2 percent target share, second most in the league among players with at least 10 games.
He had 175 targets the year before.
His 127 catches in 2024 and 125 last year make him only the third receiver in NFL history with 125-plus catches in multiple seasons.
As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Chase has finished four of his five NFL campaigns no lower than fifth in fantasy points per game -- the exception was 11th in 2023. Of course, Burrow was limited to 10 games that season. He only played eight games last year.
But There Was a Difference
Joe Flacco took over for Jake Browning as the Bengals backup quarterback. Flacco, a willing and able passer, is back this season.
Even with Burrow missing more than half the season, Chase finished the season as WR3 on a points per game (19.3) basis.
And that's the edge. While we'd love to see a full season of Burrow as the triggerman here, knowing Flacco is waiting in the wings makes it easier to grant Chase bulletproof status.
Locked in Role
FOX Sports NFL writer Ben Arthur recently ranked the league's top 10 offenses entering OTA. The Rams offense was No. 1. The ranking is based on Los Angeles arguably possessing the NFL's most complete offense. Sean McVay's system continues to maximize Matthew Stafford's strengths, while the offense remains loaded with veteran stars and versatile playmakers.
The Rams' ecosystem is built on McVay's ability to funnel a massive amount of production into a few specific roles. And nobody in Los Angeles benefits more from this than Puka Nacua.
Like Chase, Nacua is a volume machine for his offense. Stafford's top target led the league with 129 receptions and finished no lower than third among receivers in targets, yardage, and touchdowns. When Nacua was out running routes, Stafford was looking his way at a historic pace.
Nacua was targeted on just over 36 percent of his routes.
He was a statistical machine across his 16 regular-season appearances, posting a league-high 129 catches for 1,715 yards (second-most in the league), 10 receiving touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown on 10 carries (good for 105 yards).
The totals reflected the role.
His WR1 finish in both total points (377) and points per game (23.6) adds to the evidence.
Nacua's heavy usage in an elite offense locks in the 25-year-old as arguably the top receiver in fantasy.
The Only Real Concern
You can make a case that the Rams' weakest fantasy position is at quarterback, and the 38-year-old is the reigning MVP.
Obviously, Stafford, who just signed a new contract extension this week, isn't a problem. He played a full season last year for the first time since 2021 while leading the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions in the regular season. He finished 2025 as fantasy's QB2.
But did I mention he's been known to miss time?
That's why Nacua isn't ahead of Chase. The Rams haven't re-signed unrestricted free agent backup Jimmy Garoppolo this season. That means Stetson Bennett IV and rookie Ty Simpson are next men up at the position.
The Rising Star
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year, skyrocketed into the fantasy conversation over the last two seasons.
Drafted 20th overall in 2023, Smith-Njigba finished his rookie season with 628 receiving yards before breaking out in Year 2 with 1,130. The former Ohio State star continued to insert himself into the best wideout in the game discussion in 2025 by leading the NFL in receiving yards despite playing in the league's most run-heavy offense.
In fact, the 24-year-old set career highs in receptions (119), receiving yards (1,793), and touchdown receptions (10). He finished no lower than fourth in targets, catches, and touchdowns.
He was rewarded for all that this offseason, agreeing to a four-year, $168.6 million contract extension that makes him the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history.
For our purposes, Smith-Njigba delivered top-10 fantasy weeks 10 times throughout 2025 and scored at least 13 points in 16 of 17 games.
And we're rewarding him by making JSN the third receiver off the board, despite his 21.3 points per game and 361.9 total points ranking second at the position.
Why Not Higher?
My Footballguys colleagues, Meng Song and Jason Wood, recently made the case that Seattle's offense will regress.
"Consider me skeptical of Sam Darnold's resurgence," Song wrote, "first with Kevin O'Connell and then with Klint Kubiak. While Brian Fleury will allow some continuity coming from Kyle Shanahan's tree, he's never called plays before. On top of that, Seattle's offense struggled for much of the second half of 2025."
Wood contends it's not a bold call to expect the No. 3 offense to regress; that's just the natural order of things in the NFL. Even teams with coaching and roster continuity tend to regress based on shifts in schedule strength and injury luck alone.
Add a new play-caller in Brian Fleury, who will almost certainly be a step down from Kubiak, plus the roster attrition that comes with every post-Super Bowl offseason, and the Seattle offense looks far more likely to land near league average than at the top of the standings.
The Rest of the First-Round Wideouts
With Chase, Nacua, and Smith-Njigba locked into the top three spots and going within the first six picks, many of us will miss out. We'll still need a WR1 for our fantasy team. Who will we roll with? If we're looking at the rest of the first-round options, there are three clear-cut candidates:
- WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown (pick 1.08)
- WR5 CeeDee Lamb (pick 1.09)
- WR6 Justin Jefferson (pick 1.12)
Yes, there are some questions here. But if there weren't, they'd be in the Top-Shelf Tier.
Mr. Consistent
It's not hard to figure out why Amon-Ra St. Brown is next man up after the "golden trio." His current ADP has him going with the eighth pick overall.
St. Brown logged 117 catches for 1,401 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his fifth season. He became the fourth player in NFL history to top 100 receptions and 10 touchdown catches in three straight seasons. His WR3 total points finish (he was WR4 in points per game) was the fourth straight season he's been a top-ten fantasy wide receiver.
Can he keep it going?
The Lions have been one of the NFC's most dangerous offensive teams thanks to their elite offensive line, creative scheme, and veteran leadership from Jared Goff. But the offensive line has been rebuilt this offseason (Footballguy Matt Bitonti ranks them No. 17 this year), and Drew Petzing takes over as offensive coordinator.
But Goff is the key here.
St. Brown enjoyed a career-high target share in 2025 (31.6 percent), which helped him to 13 top-20 fantasy outings. With no major additions at wideout or tight end, expect Goff to continue looking St. Brown's way consistently.
WR1 Overall Upside
It's easy to forget that CeeDee Lamb finished his last full season -- 2023 -- as the WR1 overall thanks to a 135-catch, 1,749-yard, 14-TD (two of them on the ground) performance. He had 181 targets that season.
He missed two games in 2024, and his targets dropped to 152. Last year, injuries were an issue again. So was the arrival of George Pickens.
Still, Lamb finished the season as WR8.
As Footballguy Dave Kluge recently reminded readers, through the first two weeks of the season, Lamb was averaging eight receptions and 12 targets per game. He exited Week 3 without logging a single statistic, missed the next few weeks, and was limited over his next handful of games upon return. However, from Weeks 12-17, Lamb was back to his normal self, averaging 9.2 targets and 86 receiving yards per game.
There are some obvious concerns about how Lamb can coexist with George Pickens, but as long as Dak Prescott is on the field with him, Lamb, who's going with the ninth pick overall, remains a solid fantasy WR1 option -- one with WR1 overall upside.
Rebound Coming?
Justin Jefferson finished the 2025 season as WR20, but his 11.9-point-per-game average -- which ranked 30th -- paints a better picture of just how bleak it was.
It's hard not to draw a direct line between Jefferson's struggles and J.J. McCarthy.
The second-year quarterback appeared in 12 games; he was the sole triggerman in eight of them. In those eight games, Jefferson averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per game. His best finish was WR19 in a Week 9 game in Detroit.
He was WR20 or worse in the other seven games -- including four single-digit scoring efforts and a pair of finishes outside the top 70 at the position.
Meanwhile, in four games with backup Carson Wentz starting, Jefferson averaged 16.8 points per game.
That included a pair of top-10 performances, three WR1 finishes, and one WR3 finish.
So, statistically, it was a bad year.
Nonetheless, Jefferson is still the best wide receiver in the NFL.
He delivered over 1,800 receiving yards in 2022 and had 1,400-plus yards in 2024. Jefferson has played 16 games (or more) in five of his six NFL seasons. In the four campaigns before last year, he's finished no worse than WR6.
He's finished better than that in the other three seasons.
It comes down to one thing: Jefferson having a quarterback he can connect with. McCarthy hasn't been that. The hope is that the new arrival, Kyler Murray, will be.
If he is, landing Jefferson as WR6 with the 12th pick overall will be a nice discount.