Here we are. The offseason is quickly coming to an end, and the regular season will be here before you know it. But first, we have the all-important training camp. Rookies for multiple teams have already reported to work, and by the middle of next week, all 32 teams will be on the field in full force.
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We've used recent Notebooks to take in-depth looks at the shifting circumstances that impact player values every year. Now it's time to regroup, take stock, and reset the roles and competitions that will unfold over the next month. For those of you who have been diligently following all offseason, this will be a recap. For those who didn't? No better time than the present to start getting ahead of the competition.
We'll get the ball rolling with new faces in new places, starting with . . .
Backfields in Motion
Regardless of how you approach the position in terms of draft strategy, running backs are going to be an important part of your roster. Coming off an offseason that featured some major moves at the position, there's plenty for us to assess in the coming weeks.
Walker's Opportunity
The Chiefs signed former Seahawks running back Ken Walker III to a three-year, $43 million deal in free agency -- a clear sign, according to NFL.com's Jeffri Chadiha, that Andy Reid wants to add explosiveness to an offense that needs to take pressure off Patrick Mahomes II as he returns from a torn ACL.
Walker definitely fits the bill. His game is built on yards after contact.
Walker broke 61 tackles last season (fifth among backs) and produced 33 runs of 10-plus yards, including 10 runs of 20-plus -- Chiefs backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for just one such run all season. With Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith anchoring the line, Kansas City has the blocking to support an explosive rusher.
In Seattle, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak arrived last year promising to feature Walker, yet it became close to a 50/50 timeshare with Zach Charbonnet. That was partly due to a foot injury that capped Walker's practice time in training camp and opened the door for Charbonnet to get more work.
Only after Charbonnet tore his ACL in the divisional round did Walker take over -- and he responded by leading all players in postseason scrimmage yards. Even then, Seattle used George Holani on a third of Super Bowl snaps, since Walker isn't strong in pass protection or as a receiver.
Could those shortcomings be factors in Kansas City, too?
Fantasy managers don't think so. Walker sits at RB11 in Average Draft Position (ADP) and our Footballguys projections.
Footballguy Jason Wood acknowledges, however, that ranking him inside the top 12 requires us to believe Reid will use the newcomer unlike any back we've seen in Kansas City in recent years, and that Walker can handle a real jump in workload.
If you buy both, he's worth the second-round price.
Will A Big Season Be Easy for Etienne?
The Saints closed 2025 with some optimism around Tyler Shough and opened free agency by signing former Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. to a four-year, $52 million deal.
Not everyone liked it.
ESPN's Seth Walder called it a signing he "can't endorse," while SBNation's Mark Schofield and James Dator were blunter in questioning the payday: "You can draft a Travis Etienne. The league is full of Travis Etiennes."
I'm open to better outcomes, however.
Alvin Kamara will return, but he played just 11 games in 2025 and posted a career-low 657 scrimmage yards after eight straight 1,160-yard seasons.
And we know the desired outcome. At $13 million a year, New Orleans didn't pay Etienne to split touches.
But Kamara's presence clouds the issue.
In addition, Etienne, despite a pair of top-10 fantasy finishes in the last three years, is a career 4.2 yards-per-carry back who's never been the dual threat advertised. It's also fair to wonder if the Saints, who ranked 23rd in Run Block Win Rate and 30th in yards before contact last season, have the offensive line to set the newcomer up for success.
That might explain why his RB18 ADP and Footballguys projection indicate a lack of confidence in his ability to reach that level in New Orleans.
His late-third-round price is fair, but if we see signs he's going to get a true featured role as camp plays out, it will be worth drafting him ahead of ADP.
Lead Role in a Smashmouth Offense? Yes, Please
The Texans acquired running back David Montgomery from the Lions, filling the void left by Joe Mixon's season-ending injury in 2025. Longtime Texans observer Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 says Montgomery will get the workhorse role his career has shown he can handle: "He can do it all."
Montgomery never finished outside RB2 territory in four seasons in Chicago, including an RB5 campaign in 2020. In Detroit, he still delivered top-20 fantasy finishes in 2023 and 2024 despite sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs -- but his role shrank steadily, from 219 carries in 2023 to just 158 last season, with fewer than 10 carries in each of the Lions' final eight games.
Houston needs what Montgomery offers.
Without Mixon, Nick Chubb never found his old form, and the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards per game, even with rookie Woody Marks flashing before the run game stalled in their divisional-round loss.
Wilson believes the Texans are building their offense around Montgomery as the bell cow -- the same approach that made Mixon RB10 on a points-per-game basis in his first year in Houston.
At his RB23 ADP, a healthy Montgomery getting that volume should easily deliver on that RB2 pricing, with real RB1 weeks mixed in.
The Best of the Rest
Not everybody gets a lead role with their new clubs. But fantasy investors still have to sort out the values. How these more ambiguous situations are handled and play out in training camp will help us understand how we should price them.
In Tampa Bay . . . Kenny Gainwell signed with the Buccaneers following a second-half breakout with Pittsburgh last season.
After playing sparingly during the first four-and-a-half seasons of his career, Gainwell averaged 13.3 touches, 85 yards, and 17.8 fantasy points from Week 11 on last season.
Only six backs scored more points over that span.
Meanwhile, Bucky Irving, who delivered an RB14 finish as a rookie in 2024, had offseason surgery to repair a shoulder injury that sidelined him for seven games last year. While the third-year man is expected to participate in training camp, he could be limited at the outset.
Irving has been the more productive runner -- when healthy -- over the last two years. But both backs are excellent receivers.
In 2025, Irving averaged 14.0 fantasy points per game (RB18). Gainwell averaged 13.1 (RB21).
Irving is being drafted as RB21 in early Round 5. Gainwell is RB34 going in Round 8.
Irving's ADP reflects last year's points-per-game finish and his 2026 Footballguys projection. It's not clear if Gainwell will be a limiting factor.
Determining how the workload will be split should be on your training camp checklist.
In Washington . . . After parting with Austin Ekeler and Chris Rodriguez Jr., the Commanders signed former Buccaneer Rachaad White.
While Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the likely lead back, he's got plenty to prove. And if White gets an opportunity to move to the front of the line, it wouldn't be the first time he's outperformed a modest role.
He was a featured back in Tampa Bay in 2023, rushing for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 catches for 549 yards, finishing as fantasy's RB4.
White has been used situationally since, but he's an elite receiver: the only back with 40-plus catches in each of the past four seasons, and his 89.1 percent career catch rate is best in NFL history among backs with 100-plus targets.
That role could carry over in Washington, where he reunites with quarterback Jayden Daniels, his Arizona State teammate from 2020-21.
ADP reflects the buzz -- White (RB37) has passed Croskey-Merritt (RB40), both going in Rounds 8 and 9, respectively.
White doesn't need to win the job outright to pay off that price. His receiving floor is nearly unmatched at his ADP, and his history with Daniels offers a ceiling that could turn a committee back into a starter.
In Jacksonville . . . Rodriguez brings experience in Jacksonville's offense because Jaguars head coach Liam Coen was Kentucky's offensive coordinator in 2021 during Rodriguez's junior season.
Observers expect Rodriguez and Bhayshul Tuten to share the bulk of the carries. That could change, however, as it did last season after Etienne's strong spring and training camp led to him getting the top spot over Tank Bigsby, who was then traded to the Eagles.
But considering Coen's recent success with running backs (he was the playcaller in Tampa Bay for Irving's rookie season and for Etienne's top-10 finish last year), somebody here is going to fare well.
We're currently drafting as if that will be Tuten, who is going at RB25. Is that the right approach?
Footballguy Dave Kluge believes Rodriguez, with his RB45 ADP, teaming up with his college coordinator bodes well for the newcomer. There's familiarity in the offense and proven trust with the head coach. Kluge contends that Tuten's projections take a ding with Rodriguez around, especially when factoring in that expected role near the goal line.
"This Jaguars offense is trending in the right direction," Kluge added, "and both backs can find different paths to success.
"Tuten's path, however, got a bit narrower."
Whether they're heading for anticipated featured roles or becoming parts of shared backfields, we'll need to track all these players' progress closely over the next few weeks. Training camp won't just settle these backfield competitions -- it will determine whether today's draft prices become tomorrow's bargains or mistakes.
The biggest edge belongs to fantasy managers who react to meaningful role changes before ADP catches up. Let usage -- not preseason highlights -- drive your draft board, and be prepared to move quickly when training camp confirms a backfield hierarchy the market hasn't fully priced in.
Out Routes at Wide Receiver and Tight End
We saw some premium talent on the move at wideout -- with some of them getting very interesting landing spots.
Instant Chemistry
Wide receiver A.J. Brown did not become a member of the Patriots until June, which meant he didn't get much time to work with quarterback Drake Maye before the end of the team's offseason program.
It was enough time for Brown to make a positive impression on his new teammate.
Maye said at his football camp this week that he feels he has already started to build a connection with Brown and that he plans to deepen it once training camp is underway this month.
"A.J.'s been awesome," Maye told Mike Reiss of ESPN.com. "I'm looking forward to getting to camp and building some chemistry. And I know there's already some there for me. You just gotta throw it near him, and he'll make a play."
The Patriots were willing to wait to make a trade for Brown because they think he and Maye will take the offense beyond where it was with Stefon Diggs as the top receiver in 2025. That being the case, Brown figures to be a big part of New England's offense in 2026 after the Patriots went 14-3 last year and earned a trip to Super Bowl 60.
In 15 games for the Eagles last season, Brown amassed 78 receptions for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns.
Brown was a top-20 wide receiver each of his four seasons with the Eagles, including top-10 PPR finishes in 2022 and 2023. He should also easily pace the Patriots in targets.
But with New England also adding former Packers wideout Romeo Doubs in the offseason and Brown having missed time in each of the past two years, his early WR8 ADP is closer to his fantasy ceiling than his floor.
Mile High Expectations
Jaylen Waddle was the subject of trade rumors last season, with the Bills and Broncos both mentioned. A few months later, Miami sent him to Denver.
As Footballguy Dave Kluge notes, a healthy Waddle has been elite.
As a rookie, he pulled 142 targets (10th-most in the league) but mostly in short areas, so his efficiency lagged: 42nd in yards per route run, 71st in yards per target. After Miami traded for Tyreek Hill, Waddle's role changed -- fewer targets (116, 24th among receivers) but a much deeper average depth of target, and he shot to fourth in yards per route run and first in yards per target.
Still just 27, Waddle could have his best days ahead, and a fresh setting helps. He joins Courtland Sutton, who's entering his age-31 season coming off his lowest target share since his 2021 ACL recovery. If Sutton stays in a secondary, chain-moving role, Waddle has a clear path to leading Denver in targets -- he can win inside or outside, stretch the field, and create after the catch.
Waddle (WR21) and Sutton (WR33) both carry reasonable price tags, but Waddle looks like the one with real upside to beat his draft slot. In fact, a WR1 outcome isn't out of the realm of possibility this year. I'll be watching camp closely to start getting a feel for how realistic that is.
Same Alpha Role, Different Coast
Mike Evans' resume speaks for itself: 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons before injuries cost him nine games in 2025, tied with Jerry Rice for the longest such streak ever. His 108 career touchdowns rank 10th all-time, and even in an injury-shortened 2024, his 2.3 yards per route run over the past two years ranked 14th among receivers.
The streak broke. The skill didn't.
San Francisco's receiver room needs him. Brandon Aiyuk is gone, along with Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Skyy Moore in free agency. Ricky Pearsall is talented but injury-prone, Demarcus Robinson is a slot piece, and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling is a deep-threat speedster, not an alpha.
OC Klay Kubiak has already called Evans a Hall-of-Fame receiver and the matchup San Francisco wants to feed in single coverage -- that's WR1 talk.
The scheme fit isn't perfect -- Shanahan's offense leans on yards after catch, and Evans managed just 46 after-catch yards in eight games last season -- but Brock Purdy's history of thriving with big receivers over the middle should help bridge the gap.
At WR27 in ADP and a Round 5 price, Evans is a bargain considering he's finished WR2 or better in 11 of 12 seasons, including six WR1 finishes. Injury risk and age are real, and the fit isn't seamless, but that price is paying for his floor while ignoring the potential ceiling.
Three More to Watch
Not every receiver is destined to be an alpha, but fantasy investors can still get value from receivers a notch or even two below the WR1 tier.
In Pittsburgh . . . As Footballguy Gary Davenport wrote in the 2026 Footballguys Draft Guide, the Steelers entered the offseason with a clear need at the No. 2 wide receiver spot. The team wasted little time addressing it, "sending a box of Jumbo Pop-Tarts and a Choc Tease BuzzBallz" to the Colts for veteran wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who posted a pair of 1,000-yard seasons over his six years with the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittman was good but not great in Indy last year -- his 80 catches for 784 yards and seven touchdowns were good for WR26 numbers in PPR points.
He is also one of ten receivers to record at least 60 receptions in each of the past five seasons, and his 357 receptions over the last four seasons rank sixth in the NFL. The Steelers' last wide receiver with 60 receptions in a season was George Pickens in 2023.
DK Metcalf remains the team's No. 1 wide receiver, but the Steelers' wideouts were among the league's least productive units in 2025, combining for 136 receptions (ranking 31st), 1,716 receiving yards (29th), and 76 first downs (30th).
Some added firepower could help, and Footballguy Jason Wood argues that Pittman is likely to be a reliable fantasy WR3 as Aaron Rodgers' most dependable, chain-moving target in Pittsburgh.
Pittman, who has finished no worse than a fantasy WR3 in his five NFL seasons, is being drafted as WR41.
I'll be watching for signs that his workload will be substantial enough to match his Footballguys projection, which calls for a WR26 finish -- well ahead of draft cost.
In Tennessee . . . What if Wan'Dale Robinson is a true WR1?
He agreed to terms with the Titans right when the negotiating window opened, calling it "the perfect marriage, a perfect timing type thing" -- a nod to reuniting with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, his coach with the Giants, and playing with quarterback Cam Ward.
Ward struggled as a rookie but found his footing late, throwing eight touchdowns against just one interception over his final four games, after managing only six touchdowns and six picks through the first 12.
Robinson's four-year, $70 million deal signals real belief in his ceiling.
His recent production is also indicative of the upside. After Malik Nabers went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 last season, Robinson's role shifted -- his slot rate dropped 20 percent, and his average depth of target nearly doubled, from 4.9 to 8.8 air yards -- and his production took off.
The Titans added rookie standout Carnell Tate with the fourth pick overall in April's draft and re-signed Calvin Ridley, but Robinson is positioned to get off to a fast start.
The new staff is banking on Ward taking a Year 2 leap, and Robinson -- who's averaged over 90 catches the past two seasons -- projects as an immediate beneficiary, with some observers predicting he'll lead the team in targets.
His ADP hasn't caught up: Robinson is going as WR48 despite finishing last season as WR13. Landing a borderline WR1/2 finisher at WR4 prices is about as safe a bet as this draft offers.
In New York . . . With Robinson moving on, the Giants have plenty of vacated targets available, and The Athletic's Dan Duggan expects Isiah Likely to have a large role.
"The Giants made their biggest free-agent investment in Likely, so he's expected to be a featured piece of this offense," Duggan explained. "They essentially swapped Likely in for Robinson, signaling the shift in their offensive approach."
Likely never hit his potential in Baltimore. He never even moved ahead of Andrews on the depth chart.
Likely showed flashes of ability upon entering the league, leading people to believe in his impending ascendancy. Four years in, it still hasn't happened. He's coming off a season in which he recorded 27 receptions for 307 yards over 14 games.
Now that he's in New York, coaches feel that Likely can become a weapon as OC Matt Nagy's "U," or receiving tight end, setting up shop in the slot, and creating logistical mismatches for opposing defenses.
My argument in these cases is always volume, and Likely should see more of that in New York than he did in Baltimore.
But I'd like to see evidence of that -- local observers reporting a substantial role in the passing offense and developing chemistry with Jaxson Dart -- in training camp before I invest at his TE12 ADP.
Of course, that's the case with all these receivers on new teams. While I'm optimistic these receivers can earn the roles outlined here, evidence matters. Opportunity wins in fantasy football, but opportunity has to be earned first. Let first-team reps, target hierarchy, and deployment tell you when these receivers deserve to move up your draft board.
Field Generals on the March
NFL offenses run through the quarterback position. Even in cases where we're not banking on the individual under center as our starter, we're counting on them to fuel the fantasy fortunes of teammates we're investing in this summer. Quarterback competitions aren't only about quarterback rankings -- they reshape the fantasy outlook for entire offenses.
Murray to the Moon in Minnesota . . . With a Caveat
When Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings for a mere $1.3 million in March (the Cardinals owe him another $35.8 million this year), the thinking was that he had the inside track to be the starter. All the signs were pointing in that direction, even as he spent the offseason splitting reps with incumbent starter J.J. McCarthy as part of an open competition.
But public accounts of the team's final minicamp sessions created the impression that McCarthy was making strides and Murray was struggling. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Tuesday that the competition could run all the way to the start of the regular season.
While that obviously creates considerable intrigue as training camp opens, multiple local observers have told me that if the season were starting today, Murray would likely be the starter.
We'll see if McCarthy can change that.
Assuming he beats out McCarthy, Murray will have the luxury of working with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson. Add that to his rushing ability, and the 29-year-old certainly could find his way into the weekly QB1 mix.
My QB17 ranking for Murray mirrors his current ADP. As we gain clarity on the starting assignment this summer, expectations will shift. If the ADP doesn't rise as the role becomes more secure, Murray drafters will benefit from the discount.
Another Starter with Legs in Miami
When new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley and GM Jon-Eric Sullivan both arrived from Green Bay, it was no surprise they went after Packers backup Malik Willis in free agency.
Willis has made the most of limited chances the past two seasons. In three games playing at least 80 percent of Green Bay's snaps, he averaged 23.3 fantasy points, seven carries, nearly 60 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown -- a pace that would top 100 carries over 17 games.
His 6.2 yards-per-carry mark over 11 appearances would rank fourth among QBs with 100-plus dropbacks the past two seasons, and his scramble and explosive-run rates would lead all passers.
Dolphins OC Bobby Slowik danced around the subject when asked about Willis, but the team didn't bet big on him without valuing what his legs bring to the offense.
Willis' passing was sharp in Green Bay too -- 70-of-89 for 972 yards, six touchdowns, zero picks -- but questions about Miami's supporting cast on a rebuilding team keep him at a conservative QB20 in my rankings.
Still, quarterbacks who threaten 100 rushing attempts don't need to be elite passers to become elite fantasy options. Willis' legs matter more than his ADP suggests, and as QB21 in Round 10, he's a cheap bet with real upside.
QB Moves with an Emphasis on the Peripheral Pieces
In Atlanta . . . The Falcons entered the offseason needing a quarterback answer, with Michael Penix Jr. still working back from a torn ACL and Kirk Cousins released in March. Atlanta's fix is Tua Tagovailoa.
Penix hasn't been cleared for 11-on-11 work yet, so the real competition won't start until he's healthy. ADP reflects that: Tagovailoa sits at QB28, suggesting he's the presumed Week 1 starter, while Penix's QB34 mark shows little expectation he leapfrogs Tua soon.
Of course, neither QB is going to be in the mix for a starting role on our fantasy teams. And the quarterback choice won't dent Bijan Robinson's stock, but it matters plenty for Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr.
In the nine games Penix and London played together before both got hurt in Week 11, London posted 60 catches for 810 yards and five scores on 94 targets -- more than 10 targets and 90 yards a game. Pitts broke out after Cousins took over, going from TE15 through the first 10 weeks to TE2 the rest of the way, finishing with 88 catches, 928 yards, and five touchdowns.
Neither London nor Pitts is undervalued -- both already sit inside the top 10 at their position. The only risk was a quarterback change denting their ceiling. Tagovailoa's arrival removes that worry: Atlanta gets an experienced starter for Week 1, and since both QBs are lefties, receivers won't need to adjust if a change comes later.
In Las Vegas . . . Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in April's NFL Draft, experienced growing pains during the Raiders' OTAs, particularly when playing under center.
ESPN.com's Ryan McFadden reports the Raiders have been patient with the youngster's adjustment to the next level, having him play mostly with the second and third teams during OTAs and minicamp. He has impressed many in the building with his work ethic, leadership qualities, and ability to find open targets quickly.
While Mendoza focuses on the fundamentals, Cousins allows the Raiders to take their time with the rookie.
How much time?
Potentially all season.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggested last week that the Raiders hope Cousins starts the entire season, although Mendoza can take over the starting job at some point if he picks things up quickly.
Cousins is looking to bounce back after two disappointing seasons in Atlanta.
The Raiders have an improved roster, particularly on offense, with an upgraded offensive line and more depth in the backfield. The 37-year-old Cousins is expected to orchestrate that unit and be a mentor to Mendoza regardless of who gets the start in Week 1.
But if the veteran holds the starting job all season, Brock Bowers would almost certainly benefit.
As we saw with Pitts in Atlanta last season, Cousins is known for maximizing the talents of his tight ends. He has paved the way for multiple tight ends -- including Jordan Reed in Washington and Kyle Rudolph and T.J. Hockenson in Minnesota -- to either eclipse 1,000 yards or come extremely close to doing so.
In Kubiak's system, with Cousins under center, Bowers' ascent should continue.
We'll be reporting on all of that here at Footballguys with our Training Camp reports (starting August 2), and I'll be diving deeper into individual situations of interest in upcoming Fantasy Notebooks.
This coverage is important because quarterback battles rarely affect just one roster spot.
They influence target volume, touchdown opportunities, and the weekly ceilings of the receivers and tight ends around them. We'll watch first-team reps, timing with primary pass catchers, and coaching decisions carefully -- those signals often move fantasy values long before ADP catches up.