There are four games on the main slate that offer Vegas over/under totals of over 45 points.
Minnesota/Atlanta 47.0
New England/Buffalo 49.0
Carolina/New Orleans 48.0
LA Rams/Arizona 45.5
Looking back on the Week 12 game with Green Bay/Pittsburgh, it had both quarterbacks, running backs and the wide receivers from both teams putting up big fantasy point games. Which one of the four games above is the most appealing for you in a GPP stack this week? Give me your favorite stack from that game with at least 3 players (2 from one team and 1 from the other) that has potential to score big fantasy points.
Phil Alexander: If I had to pick one of those games to shoot out it's Carolina at New Orleans. The Panthers offense is coming in hot, combining for 80 points in their previous two games. Meanwhile, it's unclear at this point in the week if the Saints will still be without both of their starting outside cornerbacks -- defensive rookie of the year front-runner Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, whose coverage is rated inside the top-20 by Pro Football Focus.
The game stack I like best here starts with Mark Ingram for the Saints. New Orleans is favored by more than a field goal at home, and in 4 games as a home favorite since the Adrian Peterson trade, Ingram has averaged 21.5 touches, 120 total yards and 1 touchdown per game (21.8 DraftKings points). Coming off a down week, still priced as the RB3, and matched up against the third-ranked rush defense, Ingram's ownership percentage should remain reasonable.
If we assume a big game from Ingram, Cam Newton will be forced to keep his foot on the gas. Newton is back to running the ball 8-10 times per game, giving him multiple paths to reach his fantasy ceiling. He also has three 30+ fantasy point performances as a visitor to the Superdome since 2014. Should Lattimore and/or Crawley scratch again, Devin Funchess (back-to-back 20+ point games) gets a bump as Carolina's most heavily targeted outside receiver. And of course, Christian McCaffrey, who is tied with Funchess for the team lead in targets, warrants consideration in any Newton stack.
If Ingram helps the Saints get out to an early lead, and Newton, Funchess, and McCaffrey fight back to keep the Panthers in it, we could finally see the Michael Thomas breakout game we've been waiting for all season. Josh McCown had no issues leading Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse to huge games against Carolina's secondary in a back-and-forth game last week, and Thomas is a cut above both in terms of talent level. If you feel the stack doesn't have enough cap space left over after adding Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr is $1,800 cheaper (DraftKings), is in a revenge game against his former team, and more closely fits the profile of Anderson, who just hung a 6-146-2 receiving line on the Panthers.
Justin Howe: I’ll be all over the Panthers-Saints game – provided the Saints are again without their top two cover men. If
Marshon Lattimore and/or
Ken Crawley sits for a second straight week, the spread will stay nice and tight and both teams will have real avenues to points. Their last three meetings have produced 49, 79, 79, 43, and 47, after all.
Cam Newton – I don’t want to pay up for him any more than you do, but Newton will come exceptionally under-owned in Week 13. That’ll be even more pronounced if his name features a Questionable tag. Newton is as shaky as they come, but we know what a floor boost he gets from his running game.
Greg Olsen – Olsen’s return yielded just 24 snaps, but that’s actually a boon for his Week 13 DFS outlook. He’ll almost certainly ramp that up this week, and many of your counterparts will want to wait for a full-blown Olsen game before they take the dive. As a result, they’ll pay up for a steadier option or down for a stab at a cheap touchdown from one of several decent options. But even at a middling snap volume, Olsen carries team-leading potential; we all know he’s too good a producer to cost $4,100 on DraftKings.
Alvin Kamara –The bubble will pop soon, for sure, and Kamara won’t rack up 150 yards and a dazzling touchdown every week. But generally speaking, Kamara is matchup-proof, because he’s essentially
Percy Harvin reincarnated as a pure running back, and script-proof, because he sees solid usage on running downs and in the red zone. Paying up for him is a way to get a major piece of this game regardless of how it unfolds.
John Mamula: Carolina/New Orleans is also my favorite game, especially if Marshon Lattimore scratches. For a game stack, I would start with Cam Newton and Devin Funchess and for a correlation play use Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara. Since Phil and Justin thoroughly covered all aspects of this game, I will also mention my second favorite game stack from the list, New England/Buffalo. The Patriots defense has allowed a league-leading 4.9 rushing yards per attempt. That hasn't been noticeable because the Patriots usually play with a lead and their opponents are forced to abandon the run. Lesean McCoy is the focal point of the offense and the Bills would be wise to lean on him even if they fall behind. Last week versus the Chiefs, McCoy had 26 touches, even though he accounted for only 79 yards in a winning effort. On the other side of the game stack, Tom Brady is the obvious play. Brady continues to defy "father time" as he has thrown 10 touchdowns over the past three weeks. He now has multiple-touchdowns in five of his past six games and has thrown for over 300 yards six times this season. Brady has a history of thriving in division games against the Bills as he passed for four touchdowns against them last season in Week 8 and finished with three touchdowns in Week 2 of the 2015 season. Brandin Cooks has emerged as a top receiving option since Chris Hogan's injury back in Week 8. Cooks has 6 receptions in each of the past three games with two total touchdowns.
Justin Bonnema: Phil made a perfect case for the Panthers/Saints game, and that’s’ exactly where I’d go too if we know the Saints defense will still be without their two best cornerbacks. But I’m going to swing over to the Patriots/Bills game as viable matchup to stack in GPPs.
The Patriots have forced the over in 54.5% of their games this season, despite the over/under total being set at below 47.5 points only twice, and set at over 50 points three times. Obviously, that’s because the Patriots score a lot of points most of the time (third highest scoring offense in football). So stacking their offense makes perfect sense in every game, especially when they take on a defense with obvious vulnerabilities. The Bills may have bottled up
Kareem Hunt last week, but in their three games prior, they allowed an average of 205 rushing yards and three touchdowns per. Maybe they’ve corrected the issues that led to those awful numbers, but how much will it matter against the Patriots’ rushing attack? Lock in
Dion Lewis for this contest. He just barely missed out on two touchdowns last week and looks fantastic every time he touches the ball.
The question is whether you want to build with Brady, or go with another skill position player. My gut says pay up for
Rob Gronkowski. Between Lewis and Gronkowski, you get a massive chunk of the offense and are all but guaranteed 175 yards and two touchdowns.
Rex Burkhead is certainly an option too, but his ceiling touchdown dependent, and I think we see a healthy dose of Lewis this week.
As for the Bills, the obvious answer is
Tyrod Taylor. I won’t sugarcoat the Bills’ offense with or without him, but what he brings to the table as a dual-threat for QB14 pricing on DraftKings, and QB16 pricing on FanDuel, in high-volume situation can’t be ignored. He posted 14.02 fantasy points last week in a low-scoring, ugly affair on the road against the Chiefs. I think that’s his floor for this game. A Taylor/Lewis/Gronkowski stack has a ton of upside and leaves you with plenty of cap space to build a solid roster.
Dan Hindery: The last two Panthers-Saints game played in New Orleans both ended in scores of 41-38. Drew Brees knows the Panthers zone defense well and has proven fully capable of picking it apart, especially when playing in the Superdome. He has 747 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last two home meetings. Ted Ginn Jr Jr. doesn’t have the high weekly floor that Michael Thomas has, but his upside is similar and comes at far lower cost and lower ownership as well. Injury reports will be critical, with a number of key players on both teams currently listed as questionable. If Marshon Lattimore misses a second straight game and Devin Funchess can play through his foot injury, Funchess is an ideal candidate to run it back with if you stack the Saints.
James Brimacombe: I am also in on the Panthers-Saints game this week as it will be played in New Orleans which usually increases the chances of a big plays and scores for both teams. On the Panthers side you have to consider the Cam Newton and Devin Funchess stack. Newton offers a nice floor with his 464 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns to go along with his 2400 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns on the season. Funchess has been his go-to wide receiver over the past three weeks being targeted 35 times in that span for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Back in Week 3 against the Saints Newton targeted Funchess 10 times, so looking for double digit targets once again is not out of the question. On the Saints side I would be looking at both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to both stack with Newton and Funchess. If you are predicting a high scoring game these are the players that are likely going to be the ones finding the end zone. No one in the NFL right now is doing more with their touches than Kamara as for example last week with only 11 touches (5 rushes, 6 receptions), he scored a pair of touchdowns and totaled 188 yards. Thomas on the other hand has struggled to find the end zone this year with only 2 touchdowns on the season but one of those came back in Week 3 against the Panthers when he combined for 7/87/1 on 8 targets.
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