With five games in the books, the fantasy season is coming into focus. In most leagues, 25% of teams are feeling great about their playoff chances, 50% are stuck in the murky middle, and 25% were obvious rebuilds heading into the season or wondering what happened in September. While the trade deadline is still far off, now is the time to assess the team's standing and outlook. Here are key questions:
Where am I in the Power Rankings?
Many hosting sites, including the heavily-used myfantasyleague.com (MFL), have power rankings available for leagues. Without the power rankings, looking at points scored and points against is a simple substitution. On MFL, the power rankings are filled with second-level information like All-Play record (what if an owner played against every team every week), potential points (what if a team's ideal lineup were started each week) and the old 'coulda won and woulda lost' numbers. In short, there are a ton of resources to get an objective measure of how a team has fared beyond the head-to-head record.
How Have Injuries Affected the Team?
Arian Foster could have cost fantasy owners a win or two. Mark Ingram's absence may very well be a key factor to an otherwise strong team. Jamaal Charles was injured in Week 2 and then missed Week 3. Adrian Peterson is out. There are others that fit this group. A rogue missed game or two like Foster or Charles can give a 2-3 or 1-4 team more optimism than there outmanned peers of the same record. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, could have single-handedly turned a contender into a squad looking ahead to 2015 with a top rookie pick in hand. If an injury or two cost a fantasy team a win or two, factor that into the standings and reassess from that point. If Adrian Peterson was a part of the equation and the rest of the team did not keep the roster afloat, a longer view into next season is the best approach.
What is the Upcoming Schedule?
Just like an NFL team, there are ups and downs in a fantasy season due to the schedule. Opponents thought to be tough in the opening week or two, strong contenders, can underwhelm and be cakewalks by midseason. The opposite is also true. Look ahead a few weeks to see if you will be a favorite, underdog, or level opponent. Serving as a tiebreaker, a tough or easy schedule may be just the thing to decide the team's direction for this season.
In or Out?
Once the above questions have been answered, there are two different directions for a dynasty team to go. The first is simple: Moving on to 2015. In this situation, older players producing starter-level fantasy numbers are at their peak value this time of year. Come January there will be tumbleweeds blowing past your inbox for these players. With running backs out for multiple weeks, this is the perfect time to parlay a Fred Jackson or Steven Jackson type for something quasi-useful. A second round rookie pick would have been an unrealistic asking price in the offseason, but now a legitimate option as in-season stopgaps to contending teams. At wide receiver, think Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, and especially Steve Smith. For teams out of the title hunt this season, September 2015 will be the next opportunity for those aging veterans to play a meaningful fantasy game for your team. That is a long hold with plenty of downside. The advantage of deciding team direction early as a Target: 2015 team is the available pool of contending teams (or owners thinking they are true contenders) is larger now than when the pack thins in another few weeks. One or two of those 3-2 teams will lose a few games in a row and no longer be potential buyers.
Who are targets for teams looking ahead to next season?
In a general sense, think injured players or underperforming (or non-performing) young players. Here is a good starting list to look for future production at a discount:
Quarterbacks
- Cam Newton - No rushing production, limited weapons, improving as pocket passer
- Blake Bortles - Team on upswing, but not much established talent around him
- Robert Griffin III III - His cheapest purchase price for owners that still believe
- Derek Carr - Similar to Bortles. Has shown functionality
Running Backs
- Isaiah Crowell - Has shown enough to like his chances to be a starter in the future, if not later this season
- Carlos Hyde - Looks like the future starter in San Francisco
- Bishop Sankey - Looks good on tape, still working way into full-time role
- Alfred Blue - Decent in limited action
- Joseph Randle - Almost free, one of the better primary backups in the NFL
- Tre Mason - Talented pure runner, nearly forgotten with Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham running ahead
- Latavius Murray - Blocked for 2014, but Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew on short-term deals
- Ka'Deem Carey - Solid in backup role, was hyper-productive in college
- Tyler Gaffney - Patriots running backs have a way of escalating in value at some point. Gaffney can be IR-stashed
Tight Ends
- Tyler Eifert - Out of sight, out of mind with an injury keeping him out most of 2014
- Ladarius Green - Talented, but quite possible community was a year too early with Antonio Gates still kicking
- Kyle Rudolph - See Eifert, Tyler
Wide Receivers
- Josh Gordon - Price only rises as his returns inches closer
- Cody Latimer - Looks like non-factor in 2014, but could be significant player in Denver as soon as 2015
- Donte Moncrief - Like Latimer, limited chance to be starter in 2014, but appeal of starter with Andrew Luck
- Aaron Dobson - Talented, but getting the doghouse treatment in New England, may need change of scenery
- Marquess Wilson - Out of sight, out of mind. Santonio Holmes has done little to say 'this is my job'
- Martavis Bryant - Markus Wheaton not running away with No.2 job, Bryant upside play with size-speed combo
- Jeff Janis - Like Moncrief, measureables and playing with a stud quarterback is an intoxicating pairing
- Corey Washington - The Victor Cruz of the preseason, worth a hold into 2015 regular season
- Jaron Brown - A talent that is free in many leagues, could be Cardinals starter in 2015
Contending teams will be front and center in next week's edition of The New Reality. Activity leads to executed trades. These next handful of weeks is the time to throw out multiple offers across the league to address a weakness or sell-off a player. The market is not limited to a single team. Good luck in Week 6 and keep building those dynasties!
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